Five matchdays into the 2026-27 WSL season, the established hierarchy is under pressure as Arsenal struggle and Tottenham and London City Lionesses mount a push for Europe. But is the WSL genuinely more competitive than ever?
The 2026-27 Women’s Super League season is already challenging our pre-season expectations.
Arsenal are languishing in the bottom half, London City Lionesses and Tottenham are pushing for European qualification, and the traditional ‘big four’ are facing competition from the chasing pack.
Results have been very unpredictable as well. Teams outside the usual elite are taking points off their more decorated opponents at a record rate, while the gap between the league’s traditional powers and new challengers looks like it’s shrinking. The three promoted sides are also showing signs of both promise and vulnerability in equal measure.
The only stable element seems to be reigning champions Manchester City, who have made a perfect start to their title defence.
So, with five matchdays played, is the WSL really becoming more competitive? We examine five key trends in the data to find out.
The WSL Is Becoming Harder to Call
If there has been one recurring theme among WSL fans this season, it is that the league feels harder to call. There are fewer games that look straightforward on paper, particularly in the middle of the table where the gap between teams is becoming increasingly difficult to see.
Arsenal sitting 10th with five points after five games is the most obvious example. Manchester United, meanwhile, are three places above them in seventh. We’re only five matchdays in, but the Red Devils have only finished above Arsenal once in WSL history, in 2022-23, when they finished second and Arsenal third.
Results to date have given us a lot of contrasting conclusions. London City opened their campaign by beating Man Utd, before losing to West Ham. United then beat West Ham, while Tottenham subsequently defeated the Hammers before being thumped 6-1 by London City. It definitely feels like anyone can beat anyone.
The data supports that theory as well. Non-big four sides are averaging a record 0.42 points per game against the big four, the highest on record across a season since 2015 (0.43), while it is up from 0.30 last season.
There’s something in the data that should give us pause here, though. At the moment, teams with a higher expected goals (xG) total have won just 62.9% of those matches, the lowest rate since Opta’s updated model was introduced in 2021-22. So there is a chance that the big four teams have just been on the receiving end of some unusual results in the opening stages of the campaign.
Underperformance against expected goals is something that’s afflicting the league as a whole this season. The league-wide difference between goals scored and xG stands at -3.88, the first time it’s been a negative figure in a WSL season since Opta’s xG model was recently updated.
What’s even more interesting is that sides outside the traditional big four have been responsible for some of the biggest wins in the WSL season so far.
London City (6-1 vs Tottenham), Brighton (5-1 vs Charlton), Liverpool (4-0 vs Charlton) and Tottenham (7-0 vs Crystal Palace; 4-0 vs Aston Villa) have already produced five wins by a margin of four or more goals.
It is only the second time in WSL history that teams outside the traditional top four have recorded at least five such victories in a season. The only previous occasion was 2020-21, when there were eight; last season, there were just two.
By comparison, Chelsea are the only traditional big four side to have won by four or more goals this season, beating Man Utd 5-0 on MD2.
The established hierarchy is becoming less reliable, with more teams capable of producing convincing results against stronger opposition. That is perhaps the clearest evidence yet that the WSL is becoming more competitive.
Is the Traditional Top Four Under Threat?
The battle to break into the UWCL looks considerably more possible than it did for the chasing pack at the start of the season, as both London City Lionesses and Tottenham have made impressive starts.
Spurs have scored 16 goals, the joint-most in the WSL alongside Man City, with London City side just behind on 15. Tottenham’s attacking threat was particularly clear in their 7-0 win over Crystal Palace, when all seven goals came in the second half – the first time in WSL history a team had scored seven goals after half-time.
While London City’s aggressive squad overhaul initially sparked debate over whether a group of superstars could fit together immediately, the team is quickly proving they can.
Eder Maestre’s side have won three consecutive top-flight games for the first time in their history, scoring 12 goals and conceding just two across those victories. Their latest was a statement 6-1 win at Tottenham, their biggest WSL win and the first time they have scored six in the competition.
What’s more, London City have spent 69% of their time in a winning game state, second only to Chelsea (73%), while drawing for just 15% of the season – the lowest figure in the WSL – and losing for 16%, the third-lowest.
It is still early days, but London City and Tottenham sit third and fourth in the league, while, as mentioned, Man Utd are seventh and Arsenal 10th. Neither the Gunners or the Red Devils have ever finished outside the top five.
There are still reasons for caution, though. Tottenham have won just two of their 53 WSL meetings with traditional top-four opposition, with the last coming against Arsenal in December 2023. They also need to prove this start can be sustained: they had 12 points after five games last season before winning just seven of their remaining 17.
Meanwhile, London City’s win over United on the opening day was their first against the traditional big four in their WSL history. They are now unbeaten in their last two such meetings, having also drawn 1-1 with Chelsea in March 2026. Those two games give us some early evidence that they are beginning to close the gap at the top of the WSL.
But, the next few weeks will provide a sterner test. Tottenham have the second-toughest upcoming schedule according to the Opta Power Rankings, with Man City third and London City fourth, while Arsenal and United have two of the easier runs.
The Opta supercomputer has already adjusted, even though we are just under a fifth of the way into the season.
London City’s pre-season probability of qualifying for the UWCL has risen from 0.6% to 3.3%, while Arsenal’s has fallen from 56.0% to 17.4%. In comparison, Chelsea and Man City have strengthened their positions from 70.2% to 89.5% and 60.4% to 86.9%, respectively. London City’s title probability has also risen from 0.1% to 0.48%.
Five games is too early to declare a new order, particularly with tougher fixtures ahead for both Tottenham and London City. But their impressive attacking numbers and early results suggest the traditional elite face a more serious challenge than in years gone by.
Teams Are Creating Better Chances Than Ever
Greater competition is not just reflected by results alone. Across the division, teams are increasingly working the ball into more dangerous areas and creating higher-quality scoring opportunities as a result, pointing an evolution in the way teams are generally attacking..
In 2026-27, WSL teams are averaging 753.5 passes per game, up 45.1 on last season. They are also recording 54.7 touches in the opposition box per game (+4.9 from last season) and 249.3 passes ending in the final third (+16.3 from last season). All three figures are season highs on a per-game basis.
What that’s meant is teams are now able to work the ball into more dangerous areas before taking a shot.
Shots from inside the box account for 72.1% of non-penalty attempts, up 3.5 percentage points on last season and 13.2 points since 2018-19.
But teams are not just getting closer to goal, they are creating more clear-cut chances. In 2026-27, WSL teams are averaging 5.2 big chances per game between them, up from 4.4 last season and just 2.8 in 2021-22.
In terms of shot quality, this season has the highest average xG per non-penalty shot (0.117) in WSL history.
Teams are increasingly working the ball into better positions before shooting and generating higher-quality chances closer to the goal. Indeed, the current 14.2m average shot distance is the second lowest in the competition’s history.
But the Gap at the Bottom Remains
With three newly promoted sides in the WSL this season, the question is whether they are making relegation more predictable by occupying the bottom places or genuinely disrupting the league. Their early performances offer an counterpoint to the idea that the league is becoming more competitive across the board.
Two of the promoted sides, Birmingham City and Charlton Athletic, sit 13th and 14th, with the Addicks still waiting for their first point. Across their opening five games, the three newcomers have conceded 38 goals and scored 14 together. Indeed, their average of 12.7 goals conceded per team is broadly in line with recent promoted sides: London City conceded 14 at this stage last season, Crystal Palace 13 in 2024-25 and Bristol City 16 in 2023-24.
However, the data implies opponents are finding it easier to create chances against this season’s newcomers.
Since 2021-22, no season has seen a higher average expected goals against (xGA) for promoted teams than the current 2.54 per game. Charlton are averaging 2.80 expected xGA per match, Birmingham City 2.51 and Palace 2.31.
So they may not be conceding dramatically more goals than previous promoted sides, but they are allowing opponents to generate better opportunities.
Charlton’s start is the starkest example. Their goal difference of -13 is the worst recorded by a WSL side at any point in the season since Crystal Palace’s 2024-25 campaign, while they are also the first promoted team to lose their opening five games since Leicester City in 2021-22. Leicester did not get off the mark until MD9 – a run Karen Hill’s side will be desperate to avoid matching.
The Addicks rank lowest across all teams in the league in 2026-27 for total shots (19), shots on target (4), attempted passes (1075), touches in the opposition box (35), expected goals (2.81)
And the Opta supercomputer has responded accordingly; Charlton’s probability of finishing bottom has risen sharply from 14.1% before the season, to 57.7% – the highest of any side.
While Charlton look destined to go down automatically, the battle to avoid the relegation play-off place looks less obvious.
Crystal Palace sit eighth in the table having collected six points – their best return at this stage of a WSL season. When they were relegated in 2024-25, they had four points and had lost three of their first five matches. This time, they have lost just once.
In turn, the Eagles’s probability of automatic relegation has fallen by 8.9 percentage points, while their likelihood of finishing in the relegation play-off place has dipped from 11.7% to 10.8% according to the supercomputer.
Their 7-0 defeat to Tottenham was bad, matching their joint-largest WSL defeat, but Palace would point to the early red card in the eighth minute as a significant factor. They have also taken points off established opposition, with Arsenal among the sides to draw against them.
Birmingham give us another example of the promoted sides’ potential. Although still winless, they have scored seven goals – half of the 14 scored by the three newcomers combined.
But at the back they are frail. The Blues have conceded 12 goals in their first five games, matching their joint-highest total at this stage of a WSL season, set in 2021-22.
The early evidence suggests that while the promoted sides can pose a threat going forward, defensive vulnerability remains their biggest weakness.
The newly promoted sides aren’t the only ones who could be in trouble this season though. Some established sides are coming under pressure as well, most notably Aston Villa and the sacking of boss Natalia Arroyo.
Villa have taken just three points from their first five games and are yet to win – only the third time in their WSL history they have failed to win any of their opening five matches in a season.
Their underlying numbers are particularly concerning; the Villans are averaging just 7.2 shots per game, 34.4 passes into the final third per game and 11 touches in the opposition box per game, all their lowest rates across a WSL season. They are also conceding 26 shots per game, a club high, while averaging just 2.8 shots on target – their lowest rate since their debut season in 2020-21.
The Opta supercomputer has increased Villa’s likelihood of finishing in the relegation play-off place from 3.8% at the start of the season to 16.4%.
Brighton, meanwhile, have endured a difficult start of their own.
Before beating Charlton 5-1, they had gone seven WSL games without a win (four draws, three defeats), their longest such run since March 2025. Their comeback win over Charlton, the club’s biggest-ever WSL victory after conceding first, offered a timely lift, although Manchester City will provide a much sterner test after the international break.
Manchester City Are Still Setting the Pace
Yet, perhaps unsurprisingly, it is Man City who continue to look the strongest.
The biggest question heading into Andrée Jeglertz’s second season at the helm was whether City could balance their WSL title defence with the demands of European football. So far, the answer is pretty encouraging.
City are unbeaten across both competitions, winning all five of their league games and drawing their opening two UWCL matches against Bayern Munich and Real Madrid.
Their domestic start is their best since 2017-18, when they also won their opening five WSL games before finishing second. With 16 goals, they are joint-top scorers in the league, while their average of 3.2 goals per game is up from last season’s 2.82.
But City have not been entirely convincing, particularly at the back.
They have conceded 1.2 goals per league game, up from 0.86 last season, and are facing more shots (9.6 per game compared to 10 this season). Their 1.4 errors leading to shots per game, compared with 0.82 last season, also suggests there is room for improvement.
Nor are they running away with the underlying numbers. City’s 13.2 xG is below Chelsea and London City Lionesses (both 15.1) and Tottenham (14.2), while they have conceded six goals. The key so far is that they are converting their strong attacking performances into results.
The Opta supercomputer has strengthened its view of City’s title defence, increasing their probability of winning the WSL from 30.5% before the season to 44.9%. Chelsea remain slight favourites at 51.2%.
City are chasing back-to-back WSL titles for the first time in their history and their early results suggest they have the quality and resilience to manage the demands of Europe alongside domestic football. The bigger test will be whether they can sustain that level as the season wears on and fatigue begins to take its toll.
So, is the WSL more competitive than ever? The early evidence certainly points towards a league becoming harder to predict, with the traditional elite facing greater pressure from emerging contenders.
But there are important caveats. The promoted sides continue to struggle, while Manchester City and Chelsea remain big favourites for the title. Five matchdays is a small sample, and whether the early unpredictability translates into a genuinely closer league over the course of the season remains to be seen.
For now, though, the established hierarchy looks less secure than it has for some time. And that can only make the WSL a more compelling competition to follow.
Enjoy this? Add Opta Analyst as a preferred source by clicking here.
Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
Has the WSL Become More Competitive Than Ever? Opta Analyst.
Hence then, the article about has the wsl become more competitive than ever was published today ( ) and is available on The Analyst ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Has the WSL Become More Competitive Than Ever? )
Also on site :
- In 1940, Hattie McDaniel became the first African American to win an Oscar and had to sit at a segregated table; the Academy replaced her lost statuette in 2023
- ‘Southern Charm’s Taylor Ann Green and Gaston Rojas Look Coupled-Up on ‘Below Deck’ as She Eyes a Bravoleb Match for Fraser
- ‘River Monsters’ Star Jeremy Wade Announces Major Return Nearly 10 Years After Fan-Favorite Show Ended: ‘I’m Back’