Social Security recipients will soon learn how much their monthly benefits could increase in 2027, with the Social Security Administration scheduled to announce its annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) on October 14.
Ahead of the announcement, The Senior Citizens League, a nonpartisan advocacy organization focused on protecting Social Security and Medicare benefits, is forecasting a 3.5% increase for next year. If that projection holds, millions of retirees and other Social Security beneficiaries could see a boost to their monthly payments beginning in January.
The estimate is not official, however, and the final COLA will depend on inflation data used by the Social Security Administration to calculate the adjustment.
How Much Could Social Security Benefits Increase?
If the 3.5% projection holds, the average monthly Social Security benefit of $1,940.08 cited by The Senior Citizens League would increase by approximately $67.90, bringing the monthly payment to about $2,007.98.
For someone currently receiving $2,000 per month, a 3.5% COLA would mean an additional $70 monthly, or $840 over the course of a year, before any changes to deductions.
The projected increase would be larger than the 2.8% COLA beneficiaries received in 2026 and the 2.5% adjustment in 2025. However, even a higher adjustment does not necessarily mean recipients will feel more financially comfortable as the cost of everyday expenses continues to affect household budgets.
How Is the Social Security COLA Calculated?
The Social Security Administration calculates the annual COLA using inflation data from the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, known as CPI-W.
The adjustment is based on the percentage change in the average CPI-W for July, August, and September compared with the same three-month period in the previous year. The September inflation data is scheduled for release on Oct. 14, when the official 2027 COLA is expected to be announced.
The Senior Citizens League released its 3.5% projection on September 11, noting that the estimate was 0.1 percentage point lower than its previous forecast. The organization also cautioned that inflation could still shift before the final figure is determined.
Once announced, the 2027 COLA will take effect in January 2027. Until then, Social Security recipients will have to wait for the official figure to learn how much their monthly benefits will change.
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