Andy Burnham opened the door to the possibility of the UK rejoining the EU earlier this month, telling the Labour Party conference Britain could go “all the way” when revisiting post-Brexit red lines.
The Prime Minister’s comments, while music to the ears of most Labour voters who chose overwhelmingly to remain in 2016, have also raised concerns about the impact they might have on the pro-Brexit Labour vote.
With Reform making significant headway in the local elections in May, some voters have been concerned that Farage might leverage Burnham’s comments to flip pro-Brexit Labour seats.
Speaking to Labour voters in historically pro-Brexit ‘red wall’ constituency of Sheffield, however, it would appear that Burnham’s comments are a breath of fresh air for those who are glad to see the PM isn’t “pandering to Reform”.
Reform’s opportunity in ‘red wall’ seats
In 2016, 51 per cent of voters in Sheffield in South Yorkshire chose to leave the EU and amid a highly successful local election campaign, Reform gained 12 seats on the city council.
It is Labour stronghold like Sheffield which voted for Brexit that Reform has targeted as it has made sweeping in parts of the country.
And following Burnham’s comments, Reform instantly labelled his comment a “Brexit betrayal” with even a Tory minister telling The i Paper, opening the door to a possible pact with Reform to stop rejoining the EU, if another referendum were called.
“I support Labour but I would be reluctant to support them if they suggested a return to the EU,” Sheffield local Oliver Elkington told The i Paper.
“I think they should get on with the job of governing the country and fulfilling their manifesto promises, not wasting precious time on re entering the EU and campaigning for Remain.”
Responding to Burnham’s comments during a visit to another South Yorkshire city, Doncaster, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said the PM pushing to rejoin the EU “will not make him very popular at all.”
“Here I am in Doncaster where 70 per cent voted Leave and a decade later the Prime Minister is saying sorry chaps, you got it wrong, we’ve got to rethink this,” he said.
Doncaster, like Sheffield, represents another opportunity for Farage to appeal to the pro-Brexit Labout vote, given that all three constituencies are currently Labour-controlled, with Reform holding a large majority in the city council with 34 seats.
Brexit not enough to entice Labour voters
Despite indications from Farage and some members of the public, experts are refuting the possibility that Labour’s pro-EU sentiment might result in them losing votes.
“Public opinion has shifted since 2016, so the proportion of places that are now currently majority pro-Brexit will be even smaller,” political scientist and professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, Professor Sir John Curtice told The i Paper.
“Just because a constituency voted leave back in 2016 and elected a Labour MP in 2024, that doesn’t mean that most of the people voting Labour there must be pro-Brexit. That does not follow, never has followed,” he said.
A recent YouGov poll found that all but four constituencies would support reversing Brexit and rejoining the EU.
Asked whether the fact that Reform made gains in the local elections gives an indication that pro-Brexit Labour voters might be swayed, Curtice said: “Just because the party wins the seat, it doesn’t mean to say it got 50 per cent of the vote, given how fragmented politics is. It’s often way below that.
“Reform has been ahead in our opinion polls for over 12 months at the same time when those same opinion polls now show 60 per cent support for rejoining. These things can go together.”
Curtice also insisted that Burnham’s Rejoin message will poach Remain voters away from the Greens and Lib Dems to Labour.
“The Burnham bounce has primarily squashed Green and to some degree Lib Dem voters who are overwhelmingly pro-EU, so Labour’s vote will now be more pro-EU than it was in the dying days of Starmer, he said.
“One of things that everybody discovered in the dying days of Starmer, is that if they don’t go in favour of the EU, they risk losing seats to the Greens.”
‘Relief’ over Burnham’s comments
Pro-EU supporters in Sheffield are still vocal about the failings of Brexit, with most believing that the constituency would vote Remain given a second chance.
Julian Rowden, chair of Sheffield for Europe, said he felt “relief” at Burnham’s comments.
Asked how he thought Sheffield would vote today, he said: “Probably Sheffield would vote Remain.
“It was on a knife edge last time, and with a much bigger turn out in my opinion, but we would have to fight a different campaign, a much more positive one, and do more to inform the public including emphasising the role of the EU in maintaining peace and solidarity in a much more volatile world than in 2016.”
Another member of the group, Adam Bazeley, agreed, adding: “We usually get a positive response on the street stalls and events.”
He added: “Andy Burnham has approached this from a ‘let’s see what we can do’ perspective, and has not taken the bait of pandering to Reform, unlike Starmer.”
Sheffield Green Group Leader Councillor Angela Argenzio said she believed that Sheffield would vote Remain given a second chance, saying: “Ten years on, people have lived with the consequences in prices, trade and public services.
“A generation of young people has also lost the chance to study and work abroad that their parents took for granted. Many who voted Leave felt ignored and left behind, and that’s the problem we most want to fix.”
Asked about the possibility of Reform flipping pro-Brexit Labour voters, she said: “People are worried about bills, housing, the NHS and wages. Voting Reform won’t fix any of that, just like voting for Farage’s Brexit in 2016 didn’t.”
Both Sheffield Reform and Labour party offices were contacted for comment.
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