Although Orioles right-hander Zach Eflin slumped to a 5.93 ERA during an injury-limited, 71 1/3-inning campaign in 2025, the O’s brought him back on a one-year, $10MM contract last winter. It didn’t work out for either side, as Eflin left his first start with elbow discomfort and had to undergo Tommy John surgery in early April.
Eflin’s contract includes a $25MM mutual option for 2027, but the Orioles are certain to buy him out for $2MM. That could end a hard-luck tenure in Baltimore for Eflin, but perhaps the team will welcome him back on a much cheaper arrangement. The 32-year-old would “love to stay” with the Orioles, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes.
With Eflin likely to miss a sizable portion of next season as he rehabs, he may seek a two-year deal when he reaches the open market. Regardless, the team that signs him (assuming one does) will hope he goes through a smooth recovery and turns back into the capable mid-rotation type he was before lat, back and elbow injuries through his career off course.
Eflin isn’t far removed from a highly effective two-year stretch divided between Tampa Bay and Baltimore, which acquired him from the Rays in July 2024. Over that 59-start, 343-inning span, Eflin put up a 3.54 ERA that was backed by encouraging peripherals. ERA estimators such as xERA (3.36), FIP (3.37) and xFIP (3.45) and SIERA (3.62) all looked favorably on his work. He also walked a mere 3.5% of hitters during that run, trailing only the Mariners’ George Kirby (2.7%).
Although Eflin doesn’t throw hard or rack up many strikeouts (20.7%), he has consistently shown an ability to limit free passes (5.7%) and induce ground balls (43.8%). Those skills have helped him carve out a long career as a starter since he debuted with the Phillies in 2016. His first couple of years didn’t go well, nor did the 2025 campaign, but Eflin pitched to a useful 4.07 ERA with similar peripherals in 949 2/3 innings from 2018-24.
While Eflin was barely part of the mix in Baltimore over the past two seasons, he’s one of three veteran starters the team could lose in free agency. Southpaw Trevor Rogers is a strong qualifying offer candidate who should draw plenty of interest if he rejects it and treks to the market. Righty Chris Bassitt, who’s also an impending free agent, is weighing retirement at the age of 37. As things stand, Kyle Bradish, Shane Baz and Brandon Young are the only locks for the Orioles’ rotation in 2027. Trey Gibson, Luis De León and Cade Povich are a few other in-house options, but president of baseball operations Mike Elias will likely look for answers in free agency and on the trade front.
Photo courtesy of Daniel Kucin Jr., Imagn Images
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