The NFL season rarely fails to surprise. We’re revisiting our preseason team ratings to identify the biggest increases and decreases through four games.
Fortunes can change very quickly in the NFL.
With just 17 games on the regular-season schedule, a three-game losing streak in September can derail a team’s entire season, while a hot start can provide a much-needed cushion in later months when attrition sets in.
Just one month ago, the 2026 NFL season kicked off, putting months of offseason analysis and speculation to the test.
The Opta projection model, or supercomputer, if you will, runs thousands of simulations of the season to determine team ratings. We’re comparing current NFL team ratings (which also are predictive moving forward) to the preseason ratings.
Note these are not necessarily teams with better records than projected. For instance, the team that has improved its preseason projection the most by raw numbers is the 0-4 Miami Dolphins.
Our preseason rating was that the Dolphins would be truly horrible, but they’ve had some previously unheralded players step up to make them more of garden-variety bad team. They still rank 32nd in the ratings entering the Week 5 schedule.
Instead, this is a list of teams whose leaguewide rating has changed the most – either moving up or down a tier – as the action heads into Week 5.
NFL Team Ratings: Biggest Increase
1. Kansas City Chiefs (+10 spots)
The reasons the Chiefs have ascended in our ratings have been clear to anyone who has watched them during their 4-0 start.
The addition of running back Kenneth Walker III has been one of the biggest positional upgrades in the league, and it has upgraded Kansas City’s running to one of the NFL’s best.
Last season, the Chiefs averaged 3.8 yards per designed run, ranking 26th. This season, they’re first at 5.7 yards per designed rush.
This newly found balance also has helped Patrick Mahomes, who has increased his passer rating from 89.6 last season to 106.2 this season.
While the acquisition of Walker was considered big news in the offseason, it was hard for anyone, including our supercomputer, to predict how a running back who averaged 60.4 yards per game last season could be the workhorse of an elite rushing attack.
2. Tennessee Titans (+9 spots)
This can be a bit of a tough sell because the Titans are off to an 0-4 start, but the projection model sees signs of competency in Tennessee.
Some of this rise in ratings is due to starting the season with extremely low expectations, as illustrated earlier with the Dolphins. While second-year quarterback Cam Ward has been uninspiring, he’s protected the ball pretty well, and the Titans have benefited from some playmakers on defense.
Tennessee’s defense is anchored by two defensive tackles who are perennially among the most underrated players, regardless of position.
Jeffrey Simmons always seems to fly under the radar, and yet he is coming off a career-high 11 sacks last season. Through four games, he has two sacks and leads all defensive tackles with a 93.8 player grade on pass-rush snaps.
His partner in the trenches is John Franklin-Myers, whose 90.9 player grade on run defense ranks fourth among defensive tackles. Many casual fans don’t know about Franklin-Myers, but he’s been among the league’s best interior defenders since his breakout 2021 season with the New York Jets. He was a major piece in the Denver Broncos’ fierce defense last season, and he’s immediately elevated the Titans’ standing.
3. Atlanta Falcons (+8 spots)
The preseason outlook was bleak for the Falcons, who had the most questionable quarterback situation in the league in August.
Indeed, Cooper Rush and Jack Strand combined to open the season with one touchdown pass and five interceptions, but Atlanta has since turned some heads with Michael Penix Jr. back under center and coming off back-to-back blowout wins on the road.
Penix has an expected completion rate of 76.1%, the second highest in the league among quarterbacks with at least 10 adjusted attempts. A competent passing game has only increased the effectiveness of the Falcons’ greatest weapon, Bijan Robinson.
No one who plays fantasy football has been surprised by Robinson’s gaudy numbers, but he’s accounted for a bigger share of his team’s yards from scrimmage than any other player this season.
Atlanta’s defense has also been notable, especially against the run. The Falcons rank fourth in rushing success rate allowed at 34.4%, and they’re allowing a preposterously low 1.0 yards per rush before contact. The league average is 2.6.
4. Cincinnati Bengals (+8 spots)
There have been no surprises with Cincinnati’s high-powered offense, and Joe Burrow’s unit has the Bengals in the mix, despite losing consecutive games to drop to 2-2.
Burrow grades out as the NFL’s most accurate quarterback, with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins remaining one of the league’s most productive receiver duos.
The Bengals’ improvement has come on defense, especially against the run. Last season, they ranked 29th with a 45.3% rushing success rate allowed. This season, they’re at 36.0%, ranking eighth.
The acquisition of Dexter Lawrence II has lived up to the hype this season, but fellow defensive tackle Jonathan Allen continues to be a very productive veteran.
5. Chicago Bears (+7 spots)
Preseason projections of the Bears were among the most widespread entering this season, and they continue to surprise into the 2026 campaign.
Much of Chicago’s success last season came from comeback victories and turnovers, and computer models usually view those as more due to luck than skill.
This year, however, the Bears appear to have turned a page from a lucky team to a borderline-dominant team, despite Caleb Williams’ hamstring injury.
Chicago has started three different quarterbacks this season but still has a 3-1 record, thanks largely to a dominant rushing attack. The Bears, with Kyle Monangai and D’Andre Swift, lead the league at 196.3 rushing yards per game. Both running backs have benefited from the Bears’ offensive line, as they’ve averaged 3.1 yards per carry before contact, third-best in the league.
NFL Team Ratings: Biggest Decrease
1. Los Angeles Chargers (-21 spots)
It doesn’t take a supercomputer to know the 0-4 Chargers are the disappointment of the season. They were supposed to enter this season with a competent defense. The offense, now led by Mike McDaniel, was supposed to finally unleash Justin Herbert behind one of the best offensive lines in football.
The results have been disastrous.
The rushing offense has been decent but with one of the lowest heavy box rates in the league, and the passing offense has been baffling.
Herbert has been a polarizing player since he entered the league, but he’s never finished a season with a passer rating lower than 93.2. This season, he 28th out of 29 qualifying quarterbacks with a 70.6 rating.
There is still time to salvage for coach Jim Harbaugh’s team this season, but a Week 5 showdown with the Denver Broncos will present some serious challenges.
2. Carolina Panthers (-11 spots)
On offense, the Panthers have actually been better than expected.
Carolina’s overall success rate of 44.0% is just above league average, and Bryce Young has far exceeded expectations with a 100.0 passer rating and league-leading 1,268 passing yards.
But the Panthers entered the season with the four-ranked defense, according to the model, only to have the Bears drop 59 points on them in Week 1. They’ve given up just 16.6 points per game since then, however, and could continue to rise as that game becomes a smaller part of a bigger picture.
In a pass-heavy offense, however, the Panthers may be limited by their offensive line, which ranks 31st with a 62.0% pressure-rate allowed.
3. Green Bay Packers (-10 spots)
It feels like the football world is always waiting for the Packers to take that next step, but this certainly does not feel like the season.
Micah Parsons has yet to play a snap, and the injury bug has already bitten Green Bay again, with wide receiver Jayden Reed and linebacker Edgerrin Cooper both out for the season.
Injuries aside, the Packers’ upside is limited as long as they have one of the league’s worst rushing attacks.
Josh Jacobs remains on the commissioner’s exempt list after being accused of domestic violence, and the offensive line was so bad in the opening weeks that Green Bay signed three veterans off the street in Kevin Zeitler, Laken Tomlinson and Mekhi Becton.
The Packers rank 31st in gaining 1.4 yards per carry before contact. Matt LaFleur has been forced to abandon his play-action deep shots because the run fakes aren’t credible and the line can’t protect on deep drops. The result has been a 5.1% explosive rate on passing plays, ranking 31st.
4. Minnesota Vikings (-9 spots)
Some fans may be surprised to see the Vikings on this side of the ledger after a 4-0 start, but this team appears to have serious limitations.
Minnesota’s latest two wins have been against the Dolphins and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are a combined 0-8. The Vikings’ season-opening win against the Packers appeared big at the time but is less impressive with Green Bay appearing to be a paper tiger.
The Vikings’ best win of the season was against the Bears in a muddy slog, during which Chicago lost its starting quarterback.
No NFL team will ever apologize for winning, but Minnesota’s team construction could be a problem in the coming weeks.
The defense is the league’s best to date, with a 30.7% success rate allowed. Brian Flores has a definitive game plan that includes blitzing and even more blitzing, with the Vikings bringing an extra defender at more than twice the rate of the league average.
But Minnesota’s offense ranks 31st with a 31.4% overall success rate, and the Vikings are bottom-five in both passing and rushing success rate. Kyler Murray has returned from his concussion, but he has just a 73.3 passer rating.
5. New England Patriots (-6 spots)
The Super Bowl hangover appears to have set in for the Patriots, but there’s some reason for optimism at 2-2.
New England pulled off a back-and-forth road win against the rival Buffalo Bills in Week 4, with Buffalo’s porous defense being just what the doctor ordered to get Drake Maye back on track.
The Patriots’ two losses have both come on the road, and they were to the defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks and AFC South-leading Jacksonville Jaguars.
Wide receiver A.J. Brown’s injury certainly hurt their projection, but the Patriots’ roster construction demands high-level play from Maye, and he’s had an inconsistent start to the season.
Last year, the Patriots led the league with a 134.6 passer rating on passes more than 20 yards down field. This season, they’re 27th with a 52.2 rating.
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NFL Team Ratings: Who’s Outperforming, Underperforming Their Preseason Projection? Opta Analyst.
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