FCS Football Week 6 Preview & Predictions: While Some Top-25 Teams Rest, Others Seek to Avoid Upsets ...Middle East

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FCS Football Week 6 Preview & Predictions: While Some Top-25 Teams Rest, Others Seek to Avoid Upsets

We’re previewing key games and storylines each week during the college football season. Our FCS coverage is the home of the Top 25 media poll, FCS National Awards and much more.

It may feel like FCS football is taking the week off given four of the top seven ranked teams and eight overall in the Top 25 are on byes.

    Don’t be fooled by the rest.

    In fact, there’s little rest in the FCS. Actually, most of the ranked teams that are in action are facing a dangerous opponent in Week 6, maybe even more so than in a typical, fuller schedule.

    Any FCS week in a nutshell? There are always plenty of results to leave you shaking your head.

    FCS Football Week 6 Preview & Predictions

    FCS Game of the Week: Tarleton State at Austin Peay

    The United Athletic Conference has been outstanding in its short history, but No. 3 Tarleton State (5-0) at No. 9 Austin Peay (5-1, 1-0) on Saturday is its first Top 10 matchup. Since last season, the host Governors have won their last 10 games at Fortera Stadium (“The Fort”) to set the program record. All but one of those dubs has been by 14 or more points.

    The first Top 10 matchup in United Athletic Conference history is the Stats Perform FCS Game of the Week:No. 3 Tarleton State (5-0) at No. 9 Austin Peay (5-1)Kendra Sheehan previews the Week 6 showdown. pic.twitter.com/XiLW4FMpk0

    — Opta FCS Football (@OptaAnalystFCS) October 6, 2026

    Even with standout running back Tylan Hines sidelined for two games, Tarleton State leads the FCS in offensive yards per game (516.2) and yards per play (7.9). Meanwhile, Austin Peay wide receiver/returner Denver Harper has averaged 52.9 yards on his nine touchdowns – the highest of any FCS player with 5+ TDs – and quarterback Chris Parson is No. 1 in passing efficiency rating (198.8).

    Second-and-10

    1. The Opta projection model gave No. 13 Northern Arizona (4-2, 2-1) a slight edge (50.4% win probability) at home against No. 2 Montana (5-1, 3-0), the only Big Sky team out of 13 without a conference loss. The host Lumberjacks are facing a third straight Top 25 opponent (a loss at Montana State and a win at Idaho State) and lead the FCS with 16 turnovers gained. The Grizzlies, though, protect the ball (five turnovers) and boast one of the nation’s more-skilled offenses with the QB Keali’I Ah Yat/RB Eli Gillman/WR Brooks Davis triumvirate.

    2. Fourth-ranked North Dakota and No. 18 Harvard are on upset alert, but their opponents hurt themselves two weeks ago by, of all things, winning. Northern Iowa (2-2, 1-0 MVC) beat Illinois State, the 2025 FCS runner-up, on Sept. 26. Add in UNI having a bye last week and the Panthers surely have attention of the Fighting Hawks (5-1, 2-0), who can’t afford to look ahead to next Saturday’s game against No. 1 South Dakota State. Harvard (3-0, 1-0 Ivy) is one of just five remaining unbeaten teams in the FCS and has won six straight meetings with Cornell, but the host Big Red (2-1, 1-0) surrendered anonymity when they knocked off Ivy League favorite Yale.

    3. The Ivy League is home to four of the top-five scoring defenses in the FCS, led by Princeton (2-1) as the stingiest at 9.3 points per game. The Tigers’ average, down from 24.4 last season, is buoyed by a 22-0 shutout of Bryant which was their first in five years, and they’ve allowed opponents to score only four times in 10 trips to the red zone. Harvard (11.3, second), Brown (12.3, fourth) and Penn (13.7, fifth) are the other teams in the top five of scoring defenses, with two-time defending Patriot League champion Lehigh (11.8, third) breaking up the group.

    4. The Ohio Valley Conference’s out-of-league schedule has proven to be overwhelming, with five of the eight teams sitting among the top 17 in highest strength of schedule, according to Massey Ratings. Conference play, though, may wind up being outstanding as the first three games have been decided by two, three and seven points. The three teams yet to play an OVC game will do so on Saturday, highlighted by Southeast Missouri (2-3, 0-0) visiting Lindenwood (1-3, 1-0).

    TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster) is based on how good a team is offensively and defensively against an average team per 10 drives each in a game. An average FCS team has a 0.0 TRACR, so a team with a positive TRACR indicates it would outscore an average team by that many points.

    5. The FCS is always wacky, but consider last Saturday to be SWAC-y as Grambling State defeated Alcorn State 63-59 in the subdivision’s highest-scoring game since 2022. That result wasn’t necessary for No. 22 Jackson State (5-0, 2-0) to take GSU seriously (3-2, 1-1). While JSU has played in the conference championship game for two straight seasons, it lost to the G-Men in the regular season. That includes 41-20 at The Hole in 2024, one of their eight losses in 11 trips to GSU since 2000.

    6. In its program’s first two seasons, UTRGV is 9-0 at home and has sold out every game inside Vackar Stadium. The Vaqueros have had a bit of a sophomore slump, starting 2-3 (including a pair of three-point losses) after last year’s 9-3 debut, but Southeastern Louisiana’s visit Saturday night offers the chance for their biggest win to date. Surging Southeastern (3-2, 1-1 Southland) made the FCS playoffs last season and is the first team ranked outside the Stats Perform FCS Top 25 Poll.

    7. Will the real Western Carolina (3-3, 1-1) please stand up? That’s a common question from year to year, but its particularly this season inside the Southern Conference after the Catamounts (3-3, 1-1) fell 58-31 at ETSU two weeks ago (it was 44-7 at one point), then beat former No. 9 Tennessee Tech 44-20 last week. Defense has long held back WCU, and it’s been evident against this week’s opponent, No. 20 Mercer (4-2, 1-1). The SoCon’s two-time defending champion has averaged 44.7 points in winning their last 10 meetings against WCU since 2016, with 34 points as the Bears’ low and wins such as 59-46, 45-38, 44-34 and 49-47 (last year).

    8. The SoCon is the home of the field goal. Its teams are averaging an FCS-high 1.3 field goals per game and their 76.8% accuracy is second-highest. As easy as 1, 2, 3? You bet. Those are the respective national ranks in field goals made for Mercer’s Simon Zeidan (14), Furman’s Nathan Chapman (12) and Western Carolina’s Bryan McCollum (11).

    9. The excellence of Lehigh running back Luke Yoder is recognized everything, with the FCS’ No. 2 rusher (814 yards, 135.7 per game) already nearing a third consecutive 1,000-yard season. But consider the FCS leader in all-purpose yards, Cal Poly’s Jaden Green, was Yoder’s backfield mate for two seasons. Green, who had 1,631 rushing yards at Lehigh, is the only FCS player over 1,000 all-purpose yards (1,101 on carries, receptions and returns), and he also leads in per-game average (183.50). He’s fourth nationally in rushing (782, 130.3) heading into the Mustangs’ game against No. 16 Idaho State.

    10. Lehigh and Stephen F. Austin own the FCS’ longest active winning streak at six each – they’re safely on byes this week – after opponents took sledgehammers to the list last weekend. The three longest streaks ended – Montana State (19), South Carolina State (13) and Idaho State (eight) – as did three more from what had been the 10 longest – Alabama A&M, Dayton and Tennessee Tech at four each.

    FCS Longest Active Winning StreaksOverall6 – Lehigh, Stephen F. Austin5 – Jackson State, Tarleton State4 – Austin Peay, South Dakota StateHome17 – Rhode Island12 – Montana State11 – Stephen F. AustinRoad9 – Lehigh6 – South Carolina State4 – Idaho State, Jackson State

    — Opta FCS Football (@OptaAnalystFCS) October 4, 2026

    FCS Football Week 6 – Top 25 Schedule

    All games ET and on Saturday unless noted; Predicted winner in boldface

    Last Week’s Record: 16-5 (.762); Season Record: 102-26 (.797)

    1. South Dakota State (5-1, 2-0 MVFC): No game 2. Montana (5-1, 3-0 Big Sky): at No. 13 Northern Arizona (4-2, 2-1), 5 p.m. (ESPN+/Scripps/MTN) 3. Tarleton State (5-0): at No. 9 Austin Peay (5-1, 1-0), 7 p.m. (ESPN+) 4. North Dakota (5-1, 2-0 MVFC): at Northern Iowa (2-2, 1-0), 5 p.m. (ESPN+) 5. Lehigh (6-0, 4-0 Patriot): No game 6. Montana State (5-1, 2-1 Big Sky): No game 7. Stephen F. Austin (6-0, 3-0 Southland): No game 8. Youngstown State (4-2, 2-1 MVFC): at Indiana State (2-4, 0-2), 1 p.m. (ESPN+) 9. Austin Peay (5-1, 1-0 UAC): vs. No. 3 Tarleton State (5-0, 1-0), 7 p.m. (ESPN+) 10. South Dakota (4-2, 1-1 MVFC): vs. No. 25 Southern Illinois (3-3, 1-1), 2 p.m. (Midco Sports/ESPN+) 11. Lamar (4-1, 2-0 Southland): vs. UIW (2-3, 1-1), 4 p.m. (ESPN+) 12. Illinois State (4-2, 0-2 MVFC): No game 13. Northern Arizona (4-2, 2-1 Big Sky): vs. No. 2 Montana (5-1, 3-0), 5 p.m. (ESPN+/Scripps/MTN) 14. UC Davis (4-2, 2-1 Big Sky): No game 15. Tennessee Tech (4-1, 2-1 Southern): vs. Furman (2-4, 1-1), 3:30 p.m. (ESPN+) 16. Idaho State (4-1, 1-1 Big Sky): vs. Cal Poly (3-3, 2-1), 6 p.m. (ESPN+) 17. Campbell (5-1, 2-0 CAA): No game 18. Harvard (3-0, 1-0 Ivy): at Cornell (2-1, 1-0), 1 p.m. (ESPN+) 19. Richmond (5-1, 3-0 Patriot): at Fordham (1-5, 1-2), 3:30 p.m. (ESPN+) 20. Mercer (4-2, 1-1 Southern): vs. Western Carolina (3-3, 1-1), 3 p.m. (ESPN+) 21. South Carolina State (5-1): at Charleston Southern (2-3), 6 p.m. (ESPN+) 22. Jackson State (5-0, 2-0 SWAC): at Grambling State (3-2, 1-1), 5 p.m. (SWAC TV) 23. Colgate (4-2, 3-0 Patriot): No game 24. ETSU (4-2, 2-0 Southern): at The Citadel (2-3, 0-2), 2 p.m. (Nexstar/ESPN+) 25. Southern Illinois (3-3, 1-1 MVFC): at No. 25 South Dakota (4-2, 1-1), 2 p.m. (ESPN+/MidCo Sports)

    Top photo, from left, from Cornell, Grambling State, Northern Arizona and Austin Peay Athletics. For more FCS coverage, follow on X, Facebook, Instagram and Bluesky.

    FCS Football Week 6 Preview & Predictions: While Some Top-25 Teams Rest, Others Seek to Avoid Upsets Opta Analyst.

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