Was Mason Miller Tipping His Pitches Last Night? ...Middle East

Given how dominant he is, putting up two runs in the 9th inning against Mason Miller constitutes a near miracle comeback.

The Milwaukee Brewers pulled that off last night, first loading the bases against Miller, and then walking it off on the back of a magnificent Jackson Chourio at bat. As much as I hate to tip my cap, I must.

And, if the internet theorizing is correct, the Brewers may deserve another tip of the cap for picking up on something Miller was very subtly showing out there. Look at the hand placement inside the glove:

Mason Miller was absolutely tipping his breaking ball in the Padres’ NLDS Game 2 loss to Milwaukee: t.co/P20JyKhmWT

If that was actually consistent between the fastball and the slider, then Miller was just hanging it on the refrigerator for the baserunner at second to see. And if so, the Brewers MAY have been signaling the pitches:

Was Mason Miller tipping his fastball or slider yesterday? Only think it was visible from 2nd. Related: this was first pitch after Yelich stole 2nd. Yelich kinda holds his left wrist (signal? fake?) Then watch SD catcher (Fermin) reaction… tells Miller to watch Yelich at 2nd. t.co/T8XFqJs7X5

Frelick going to his neck is interesting…. t.co/zShwjsSe37

Left hand for fastball, right hand for slider?

Oof for Miller and the Padres if this is true. I’m sure it’s very, very difficult to avoid giving away the slightest bit of info out there, especially when a runner on second base has such a perfect view. But still, that’s the job. If Miller was tipping and the Brewers picked up on it in his second inning of work, it could go a long way to explaining their comeback (in addition to Miller’s command issues).

This, by the way, is not the same as stealing signs using illegal methods in realtime. With PitchCom’s arrival, it’s become a whole lot harder to do that. This is potentially just teams using their eyes and brains out there, picking up what they can, and conveying that information where it needs to go. Nothing remotely illegal about it.

Now, to be clear: even if you know what pitch is coming from Mason Miller, you still might not succeed. The pitches are elite, even if you know you’re getting a 103 mph fastball or a brutally nasty slider. But *IF* you know, then the deception piece of pitching goes to just about zero. Timing issues? Also about zero. If you know the pitcher well enough, you might even be able to fix in on an eye level.

That is to say, it very much helps the batter to know what’s coming, even against an elite pitcher like Mason Miller. But credit the batters all the same.

We don’t and won’t know for sure if the Brewers were picking up on something and signaling it to their batters, but we do know that teams are always out there fighting for every possible edge they can find. And we know that discerning pitches and passing on that info to batters is a skill used by every team in the league. Some clubs are clearly just better at it than others (and some clubs are better at detecting their own pitcher tips before they happen).

Interesting on that front: the Brewers hit .244/.326/.376/98 wRC+ this year with the bases empty. But with runners on base, that leapt to a whopping .276/.356/.433/118 wRC+, second in baseball only to the Cubs at 122 (also a team we suspect might be pretty good at discerning pitch tips; they were 108 wRC+ with the bases empty). The average team in baseball went from a 96 wRC+ with the bases empty to 105 with runners on, for what that’s worth.

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