Matt Swartz has created a model to project salaries for arbitration eligible players, which we’ve been publishing at MLB Trade Rumors for well over a decade.
In the baseball industry, teams and agents determine arbitration salaries by identifying comparable players. To project the entire arbitration class in this way would take a massive amount of time and effort. So, Matt has developed an algorithm to project arbitration salaries that looks at the player’s playing time, position, role, and performance statistics while accounting for inflation. The performance of comparable players matters, but our system is not directly selecting individual comps for each individual player.
As a disclaimer, it should be emphasized that our projections are not to be used as a scorecard for the agent and team on an individual player level. A player doing better or worse than our projection isn’t indicative of anything. Our arbitration projections are created as a tool for our readers to get a general idea of a team’s payroll situation.
Service time data is not finalized and the Super Two cutoff is not yet official. This post will be updated if new information becomes available. MLBTR contributor Ethan Hullihen estimated the line at two years and 134 days (2.134) a few weeks ago. His current projections put the line at 2.133. If correct, this would be good news for Tyron Guerrero and Jordan Beck, as both would just qualify at 2.133.
It’s worth noting that contracts signed prior to the non-tender deadline aren’t generally considered to be normal arbitration comparables. Contracts signed prior to that deadline can be skewed by light offers that are presented to borderline non-tender candidates in take-it-or-leave-it fashion, with “leave it” being a non-tender in such instances. That’s not universal to all pre-tender deals but is frequently applicable.
It’s increasingly common for teams to negotiate one-year deals with club options or mutual options covering an additional arbitration season. We’ve noted all of the players who have an option for the 2025 season under the terms of a prior agreement. If the team buys out that option, the player does not become a free agent. He simply is paid whatever buyout (if any) was agreed upon under the terms of the prior agreement and heads back through the arbitration process again this winter.
If you find MLBTR’s arbitration projections useful, please consider supporting us with a subscription. The subscription includes the best research tools you can get without actually working for an MLB team: our payroll tracker, contract tracker, agency database and GM tracker.
The projections:
Arizona Diamondbacks (4)
Lars Nootbaar (5.076): $6.3MM Pavin Smith (4.144): $2.5MM Gabriel Moreno (4.061): $6.1MM Ryne Nelson (4.020): $3.4MMAthletics (4)
Shea Langeliers (4.051): $8.7MM Luis Medina (3.146): $1.4MM Zack Gelof (3.050): $2.9MM Hogan Harris (2.146): $2.3MMAtlanta Braves (6)
Dylan Lee (4.150): $4.2MM James Karinchak (4.130): $1.1MM Joey Wentz (3.166): $900K Michael Grove (3.122): $1MM Luke Williams (3.070): $900K Bryce Elder (3.069): $4MMBaltimore Orioles (7)
Leody Taveras (5.031): $3.7MM Félix Bautista (5.000): $2.4MM Codi Heuer (4.059): $1.1MM Gunnar Henderson (4.036): $14.1MM Albert Suárez (3.159): $1.1MM Jordan Westburg (3.098): $1.5MM Colton Cowser (3.043): $2.2MMBoston Red Sox (17)
Tanner Houck (5.100): $4.1MM Johan Oviedo (5.079): $1.8MM Adley Rutschman (5.000): $9.1MM Jarren Duran (4.155): $11.1MM Eli White (4.140): $1.4MM Kutter Crawford (4.136): $2.8MM Connor Wong (4.079): $2MM Romy González (4.044): $1.8MM Triston Casas (4.032): $1.7MM Andruw Monasterio (3.099): $1.6MM Zack Kelly (3.080): $800K Greg Weissert (3.079): $1.2MM Wilyer Abreu (3.041): $4.6MM Erik Miller (3.000): $1.5MM Justin Slaten (3.000): $1.2MM Jahmai Jones (2.148): $900K Tyron Guerrero (2.133): $1.1MMChicago Cubs (12)
Justin Steele (5.143): $6.8MM Edward Cabrera (4.147): $4.8MM Braxton Garrett (4.006): $1.6MM Javier Assad (3.167): $2.3MM (Cubs hold a $3.3MM option) Tyler Austin (3.151): $1.3MM Miguel Amaya (3.130): $1.7MM Gabriel Arias (3.124): $1.3MM Ryan Rolison (3.109): $1.1MM Ethan Roberts (3.080): $800K Michael Busch (3.045): $5.4MM Ben Brown (2.169): $1.3MM Daniel Palencia (2.154): $1.2MMChicago White Sox (6)
Joey Bart (5.020): $2.9MM Huascar Brazobán (3.170): $1.6MM Brenton Doyle (3.161): $3.6MM Miguel Vargas (3.101): $5.4MM Chris Murphy (3.055): $900K Jordan Leasure (2.161): $1MMCincinnati Reds (12)
Tejay Antone (5.145): $1.5MM Nick Lodolo (5.000): $5.7MM Graham Ashcraft (4.130): $2.2MM Tony Santillan (4.099): $2.5MM Spencer Steer (4.035): $5.7MM JJ Bleday (4.013): $4.8MM Matt McLain (3.140): $4MM Brandon Williamson (3.139): $1.3MM Andrew Abbott (3.119): $4.5MM Elly De La Cruz (3.118): $7.9MM Oswaldo Cabrera (3.069): $1.1MM Dane Myers (3.037): $1.5MMCleveland Guardians (13)
Jo Adell (5.085): $9.6MM Steven Kwan (5.000): $11.3MM Colin Holderman (4.108): $2.3MM David Fry (3.154): $1.9MM Matt Festa (3.153): $1.5MM Patrick Bailey (3.136): $2.3MM Gavin Williams (3.103): $4.8MM Blake Perkins (3.075): $900K Hunter Gaddis (3.073): $2.2MM Tim Herrin (3.058): $1.3MM Brayan Rocchio (3.001): $3.1MM Cade Smith (3.000): $5.5MM Slade Cecconi (2.155): $2MMColorado Rockies (6)
Jimmy Herget (5.069): $2.4MM Jake McCarthy (4.074): $4.6MM Ryan Feltner (4.071): $3.8MM Brennan Bernardino (3.153): $1.6MM Hunter Goodman (3.010): $6.2MM Jordan Beck (2.133): $1.2MMDetroit Tigers (11)
Will Vest (5.100): $4.4MM Zach McKinstry (5.099): $5MM Matt Vierling (5.026): $3.7MM Riley Greene (4.110): $9.3MM Spencer Torkelson (4.076): $7.7MM Kerry Carpenter (4.057): $4.1MM Tyler Holton (4.047): $2.4MM Beau Brieske (4.007): $1.5MM Reese Olson (3.123): $1.5MM Wenceel Pérez (3.000): $1.4MM Parker Meadows (2.169): $1MMHouston Astros (11)
Isaac Paredes (5.160): $15MM (Astros hold a $13.35MM club option) Peter Lambert (5.069): $4.6MM Jeremy Peña (5.000): $13.1MM Jake Meyers (4.161): $3.6MM Hunter Brown (4.035): $6.8MM Yainer Diaz (4.035): $6.3MM Hayden Wesneski (3.170): $1.8MM Nick Allen (3.164): $1.8MM Bennett Sousa (3.156): $1.3MM Taylor Trammell (3.143): $1.5MM Ronel Blanco (3.100): $1.4MMKansas City Royals (11)
Kyle Isbel (5.043): $3.5MM Nate Pearson (5.042): $2MM Nick Mears (5.022): $2.2MM Alex Lange (4.145): $1.7MM Daniel Lynch IV (4.136): $1.8MM Michael Massey (4.068): $3.2MM Anthony Gose (4.019): $1.1MM James McArthur (3.150): $800K Randy Dobnak (3.148): $2.3MM Lucas Erceg (3.125): $2.3MM Alec Marsh (3.078): $1.1MMLos Angeles Angels (11)
Reid Detmers (4.159): $7.5MM Jose Siri (4.150): $2.3MM Josh Lowe (4.075): $3.6MM Tyler Heineman (4.066): $1.5MM Tayler Saucedo (4.043): $1.5MM Zach Neto (3.170): $9.8MM Grayson Rodriguez (3.129): $2.1MM Ben Joyce (3.075): $1.1MM Nolan Schanuel (3.045): $3MM Oswald Peraza (3.014): $1.4MM Sam Bachman (2.149): $1.1MMLos Angeles Dodgers (6)
Brock Stewart (5.093): $1.8MM Jake Cousins (4.091): $1MM Alex Call (3.161): $1.9MM Emmet Sheehan (3.063): $2.1MM Gavin Stone (3.034): $1.2MM Andy Pages (2.155): $4.9MMMiami Marlins (11)
Anthony Bender (5.153): $3.4MM Andrew Nardi (4.053): $1.1MM Max Meyer (3.166): $2.7MM Calvin Faucher (3.156): $2.9MM Eury Pérez (3.113): $3.2MM Otto Lopez (3.109): $5.4MM Tyler Zuber (3.104): $900K Esteury Ruiz (3.064): $1.3MM Xavier Edwards (3.034): $3.5MM Victor Vodnik (3.024): $1.4MM Kyle Stowers (3.012): $3.2MMMilwaukee Brewers (16)
Andrew Vaughn (5.142): $8.5MM William Contreras (5.112): $14.6MM (Brewers hold $14.5MM club option) Bryse Wilson (5.049): $1.1MM Trevor Megill (5.002): $8MM Angel Zerpa (4.082): $1.3MM Garrett Mitchell (4.040): $2.7MM Brice Turang (3.165): $9.5MM Akil Baddoo (3.082): $1.3MM DL Hall (3.074): $1MM Sal Frelick (3.072): $2.4MM Joey Ortiz (3.030): $2.4MM Bo Naylor (3.014): $1.5MM David Hamilton (3.011): $1.6MM Grant Anderson (3.007): $1MM Jared Koenig (2.158): $900K Quinn Priester (2.134): $1.3MMMinnesota Twins (10)
Anthony Banda (5.135): $2.3MM Dean Kremer (5.107): $6.5MM Bailey Ober (5.093): $6.9MM Joe Ryan (5.033): $9.6MM (current deal has $13MM mutual option for 2027 with $100K buyout) Trevor Larnach (5.014): $6.3MM Royce Lewis (4.139): $5.1MM Cole Sands (4.017): $1.3MM Tommy Nance (3.165): $1.2MM Kody Clemens (3.134): $3.6MM Taj Bradley (3.097): $4.5MMNew York Mets (10)
Cionel Pérez (5.139): $1.2MM Tylor Megill (5.031): $2.5MM Christopher Morel (4.080): $2.1MM Francisco Alvarez (3.164): $4.1MM Reed Garrett (3.143): $1.3MM Austin Warren (3.137): $1.2MM Mark Vientos (3.102): $2.4MM Brett Baty (3.088): $2.5MM Cristian Pache (3.086): $800K Dedniel Núñez (3.074): $900KNew York Yankees (9)
Clarke Schmidt (5.148): $4.5MM Luis García Jr. (5.142): $11MM Ryan Weathers (4.066): $3.1MM Fernando Cruz (4.035): $2.3MM José Caballero (3.170): $3.7MM Anthony Volpe (3.142): $4MM Luis Gil (3.119): $2.3MM Heliot Ramos (3.103): $3.2MM Austin Wells (3.031): $2.6MMPhiladelphia Phillies (9)
Garrett Stubbs (5.139): $1MM Brandon Marsh (5.078): $8.3MM Jhoan Duran (5.000): $10.9MM Bryson Stott (5.000): $9.2MM Tanner Banks (4.092): $1.4MM Derek Hill (4.040): $1.5MM Rafael Marchán (4.006): $1MM Bryan De La Cruz (3.148): $1.2MM Orion Kerkering (3.010): $1.5MMPittsburgh Pirates (10)
Yohan Ramírez (4.135): $1.5MM Oneil Cruz (4.110): $6.3MM Carmen Mlodzinski (3.081): $1.6MM Jared Triolo (3.071): $1.8MM Endy Rodríguez (3.044): $1.2MM Henry Davis (3.039): $1.4MM Nick Gonzales (3.018): $3.1MM Jared Jones (3.000): $2.1MM Paul Skenes (3.000): $7.2MM Spencer Horwitz (2.152): $2.5MMSan Diego Padres (8)
Gavin Sheets (5.076): $6.5MM Luis Campusano (4.003): $1.7MM Mason Miller (3.166): $8.1MM Freddy Fermin (3.165): $2.6MM Bryan Hoeing (3.133): $800K JP Sears (3.108): $2.8MM Jeremiah Estrada (3.069): $1.3MM Jhony Brito (2.138): $800KSan Francisco Giants (9)
Sam Hentges (5.157): $2MM Andrew Knizner (5.139): $1MM Camilo Doval (5.071): $6.6MM Jason Foley (4.150): $2.3MM Rowan Wick (4.114): $800K Ryan Walker (3.050): $1.6MM Casey Schmitt (3.035): $2.5MM José Buttó (2.168): $800K Randy Rodríguez (2.148): $800KSeattle Mariners (15)
Logan Gilbert (5.144): $15.4MM Brendan Donovan (5.000): $6.1MM Gabe Speier (5.000): $3.3MM George Kirby (4.151): $9.8MM Patrick Wisdom (4.135): $1.1MM Matt Brash (4.121): $1.8MM Luke Raley (4.106): $3.1MM Bryce Miller (3.153): $3.9MM (Mariners hold a $6.075MM option with $15K buyout) Bryan Woo (3.121): $5.2MM Eduard Bazardo (3.118): $1.5MM Jose A. Ferrer (3.094): $1.6MM Michael Rucker (3.069): $800K Dominic Canzone (3.014): $3MM Cooper Criswell (2.143): $900K Carlos Vargas (2.140): $800KSt. Louis Cardinals (9)
Andre Pallante (4.145): $7.5MM Nolan Gorman (4.055): $3.4MM Alec Burleson (4.029): $8.3MM Matthew Liberatore (3.144): $3.6MM Masyn Winn (3.045): $3.3MM Jordan Walker (3.044): $5.1MM Iván Herrera (3.034): $5.5MM Pedro Pagés (2.166): $1.3MM Kyle Leahy (2.140): $2.8MMTampa Bay Rays (17)
Shane McClanahan (5.158): $6.6MM Nick Madrigal (5.137): $1.1MM Tyler Wells (5.132): $4MM Cole Sulser (5.096): $1.9MM Taylor Walls (5.092): $3.5MM (Rays hold a $3.1MM club option) Griffin Jax (5.091): $5.7MM Garrett Cleavinger (5.060): $3.7MM Nick Fortes (4.149): $3.4MM Bryan Baker (4.049): $4.1MM Ryan Pepiot (4.005): $3.1MM Kevin Kelly (3.156): $2.6MM Richie Palacios (3.156): $2MM Edwin Uceta (3.150): $1.5MM Manuel Rodríguez (3.139): $900K Jonny DeLuca (3.085): $1.7MM Jesse Scholtens (3.032): $900K Jonathan Aranda (3.030): $4.1MMTexas Rangers (10)
MacKenzie Gore (5.000): $8.7MM Jake Burger (4.127): $6.9MM Ezequiel Durán (4.053): $4MM Josh Jung (4.027): $5.2MM Logan O’Hoppe (3.171): $3.1MM Cody Bradford (3.086): $1.3MM Robert Garcia (3.086): $1.1MM Wyatt Langford (3.000): $3.3MM Evan Carter (2.170): $1.7MM Jacob Latz (2.170): $3MMToronto Blue Jays (8)
Ernie Clement (4.168): $7.6MM José Soriano (4.121): $5.6MM Josh Smith (4.116): $3.7MM Bowden Francis (3.098): $1.3MM Spencer Arrighetti (2.166): $1.9MM Louis Varland (2.163): $3.8MM Nathan Lukes (2.145): $2.1MM Davis Schneider (2.142): $1.3MMWashington Nationals (8)
Josiah Gray (5.075): $1.6MM CJ Abrams (4.130): $10.2MM Richard Lovelady (4.052): $1.7MM Jake Bird (3.169): $1.3MM Jake Irvin (3.152): $3.4MM Ken Waldichuk (3.150): $1MM Jacob Young (3.037): $2.3MM Mitchell Parker (2.167): $1.1MMPhoto courtesy of Pablo Robles, Imagn Images
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