With just five points and two goals to their name in the WSL this season, Arsenal are under increasing pressure ahead of facing Man City. Can the Gunners show up here? We look ahead to this crucial showdown with our Man City vs Arsenal prediction and preview.
Man City vs Arsenal: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer is forecasting another victory for the WSL leaders, with Manchester City triumphing in 49.7% of the model’s pre-match simulations. Man City will be aiming to win their opening five games of a WSL campaign for the third time, after 2016 (six) and 2017-18 (seven). If Arsenal fail to win on Sunday, they will have recorded their second-worst start to a WSL season through five matches, with their four-point haul in 2014 being their worst-ever.Arsenal were Manchester City’s closest challengers for the Women’s Super League title last season, with Andree Jeglertz’s team finishing five points ahead of the Gunners.
Just four games into the 2026-27 campaign, however, the gap already stands at seven points. City are the division’s only team with a perfect record, while Arsenal’s title ambitions are in danger of slipping away before the first international break of the season.
If Renée Slegers’ side are to have any hope of mounting a genuine challenge at the top of the table this season, avoiding defeat at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday feels essential.
City have made a solid start to their title defence, beating Birmingham City (3-1), Aston Villa (4-1) and Liverpool (4-2), before battling to a 1-0 win at Charlton Athletic last weekend.
Jeglertz’s team have averaged over 3.0 expected goals (xG) per game this term, putting up a tally of 12.2 (only bettered by Chelsea’s 12.4) across the first four matchdays.
Though, they have looked a little more vulnerable than the Swede would like at the other end, with three WSL teams having lower expected goals against (xGA) totals than their 3.96.
Home has certainly been a fortress. City have won each of their last 14 WSL matches on home soil, with only Chelsea enjoying a longer home winning streak in the competition’s history, recording 22 straight victories between March 2022 and February 2024.
Sunday’s game will also represent a landmark appearance for City captain Alessia Russo has underperformed her xG by 2.14 goals, the largest negative differential of any player in the division, although she did at least find the net in Paris during the week.
Given Arsenal’s attacking woes, they may look to Lisa Baum (five) this season. The pair also rank joint-top in the league for shot-ending carries (eight each), alongside Lauren James.
Man City vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
Historically, few WSL rivalries have been as evenly contested as Manchester City and Arsenal.
This is one of only two fixtures in the competition’s history in which both teams have recorded 10 or more victories against the other, with the Gunners holding a narrow 12-11 advantage, alongside two draws.
The fixture is also one of the league’s most familiar matchups.
Only Chelsea vs Arsenal (32 meetings), Arsenal vs Liverpool (27) and Chelsea vs Liverpool (26) have been played more often in the WSL than Man City vs Arsenal, which will be contested for the 26th time on Sunday.
Arsenal came out on top in the most recent meeting between the sides, with
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