The following is a lightly edited transcript of the October 2 episode of the Daily Blast podcast. Listen to it here.
Greg Sargent: This is The Daily Blast from The New Republic, produced and presented by the DSR Network. I’m your host, Greg Sargent.
This week, word leaked that the GOP Senate candidate in Texas, Ken Paxton, privately said that Donald Trump’s midterm convention in Texas had hurt Republicans in the state. On Thursday, Trump was asked directly about this, and in a rambling monologue, he kept repeating that the convention had been a huge success and that he had won the state three times. Trump just cannot comprehend just how bad things have gotten for him there. And this inability to see his own standing clearly has itself become a major problem for Republicans.
So today we’re talking about Texas with Madison Andrus, a national official with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee who’s focused on the region. We have new internal Democratic polling to share on what’s going on there. Madison, thanks for coming on.
Madison Andrus: Thanks for having me. I’m very excited to talk about, you know, all the movement that we are seeing down in South Texas. It’s truly great to see about a month out.
Sargent: It’s pretty remarkable. So the Times reported on this event where Paxton declared privately that after Trump’s convention, “everybody’s numbers dropped.” Paxton added, “right now, yeah, not good.” Now, Paxton’s campaign reacted very vehemently to this, saying it was a fake story.
Trump’s convention in Texas was on September 9 and 10. Did you guys see anything in the tracking data or in the internal polling that kind of showed how that was playing in a sort of moment-to-moment way?
Andrus: We are definitely seeing movement in the polling post this party in Dallas. You know, our DCCC internal polling from August showed Bobby Pulido beating Monica De La Cruz 49 to 43. And then just today we got new polling from the House Majority PAC that is showing Bobby Pulido up now double digits. So all of these things compounding are really leading to great momentum, and that is playing out in the data, and we’re seeing it every day.
Sargent: Yep. In fact, the House Majority PAC on Thursday found Bobby Pulido, the Democrat, leading Monica De La Cruz, the Republican, by 54 to 41. So that’s quite a significant movement. Whether that’s entirely from the convention is a little hard to say, but that really shows that something’s happening here, doesn’t it?
Andrus: Yeah, something is very much happening in South Texas, just across the board, and we are seeing great numbers. Not just in Texas 15, but, you know, our polling in Texas 34—we polled in September right before the convention, and our internals showed Congressman Vicente Gonzalez beating Eric Flores 47 to 40. You know, these are just incredible numbers for Democrats to be putting up.
And I want to point out that these are numbers that Democrats are still putting up after Republicans tried tooth and nail to rig the game at the eleventh hour with this insane mid-decade gerrymandering.
They did this because they thought that they were going to be able to lock up, you know, five, six seats for themselves, and that they wouldn’t have to fight in these seats. And now they’re losing. They are still losing after all of that. And they’re trying to pour millions of dollars into these races, and they’re not seeing a return on their investment, because they are just that unpopular.
Sargent: I want to come back to your internal polling a bit later. But first, Trump traveled to Texas for a rally on Thursday. And by the time you all listen to this, you will have probably heard something about that rally. But for now, on Thursday, Trump was asked a question by a reporter: if Paxton is privately saying you’re hurting Republicans there, why go to Texas for another rally? Here’s Trump’s answer.
Donald Trump (voiceover): Why go to Texas? Well, I’ll tell you what, we have to win this election. That convention—you were there—that convention was a tremendous success. It went up against the NFL, and as you know, they had twenty-four, I guess—it was, I said twenty-five yesterday, it was actually—they had twenty-four million views and we had a hundred and seven million views. In other words, we beat the NFL by four times. And maybe that was so for Ken, but I could tell you, we were there for a lot. First of all, I won Texas all three times. I won the Hispanic vote. I’m going because you have to thank these states that are with you a thousand percent.
Sargent: A couple things here. Note how Trump is very deeply preoccupied with thanking Texans for supporting him. I think that’s a really key tell. And same with him talking about how big a success the convention was. I mean, by that he means his own ratings. Never mind that he’s inflating them ridiculously. What he’s focused on is how he did. It’s all about how he fares in Texas. No thought whatsoever to how this is impacting Republicans there. Your thoughts on that?
Andrus: Yeah, I actually thought that that was really remarkable as well. You know, those are the numbers that Donald Trump is focused on. He’s focused on his television ratings. What he’s not focused on is the cost of gas. He’s not focused on the six dollars and fifty cents a gallon it’s taking for truck drivers to fill up their tanks.
Donald Trump on Thursday was at a Peterbilt facility where they manufacture 18-wheelers. What he did not talk about was the fact that those same truck drivers—independent truck drivers and those truck-driving companies—are now paying nearly seven dollars a gallon for the diesel fuel to put in their trucks, that is now cutting into their margins and cutting into their ability to feed their families.
The numbers that he and House Republicans are not focused on are how much the cost of health care has gone up, because they cut Medicaid last year, or because they failed to extend the Affordable Care Act tax credits. So now the cost of health care is spiking.
The numbers that they are focused on are their TV ratings. They’re not focused on the numbers that Americans and South Texans are talking about at their kitchen table.
Sargent: Well, I want to go back to the districts that you highlighted. There was Texas’s Fifteenth District, where Democratic challenger Bobby Pulido is challenging GOP Congresswoman Monica De La Cruz. And Texas’s Thirty-Fourth District, where the incumbent Democratic congressman, Vicente Gonzalez, is being challenged by Republican Eric Flores. The reason this region, I think, is of such great interest is because these districts abut the southern border, they have a lot of Latinos in them, they have some southern Texas counties. Some of this is in the Rio Grande Valley along the border with Mexico.
And that region is where Trump made very big inroads with Latinos in 2024, which produced a lot of punditry about a supposed major multiracial working-class realignment. Can you talk a little bit about that region, the Rio Grande Valley, how much importance you guys are putting on it and why?
Andrus: Yeah, we are investing very heavily in South Texas, especially the Rio Grande Valley, the RGV. An article came out just a few days ago about our seven-figure investment into bringing those voters back home. Because they did swing to Trump last time around. But what Republicans mistook was that these were now going to be reliable Republican voters. And that’s just not the case.
These are voters who simply want to be able to make it to the end of the week feeding their family. These are pocketbook voters, and they are extremely worried about the economy. And so when they look back and they are now worse off than they were two years ago, they are looking for alternatives.
And they are seeing in Johnny Garcia someone who talks about being able to afford Big Red and barbacoa at the end of the week. And they’re seeing our South Texas Democrats talking about making life more affordable.
I really want to mention, Vicente Gonzalez just a few days ago actually released a new ad in the district that talked about one of these big cultural issues that is shifting Hispanic voters back towards Democrats. And that is that there are restaurants now in South Texas that are taking brisket off of their menu, because it is just too expensive, because the cost of beef has gone up by that much. That this Texas staple is now being taken off of the menu.
And so Vicente has a really great ad right now that just highlights how much prices have increased, and how much that’s hurting South Texas families and also just hurting the culture.
Sargent: Beef is becoming a cultural issue. Is that what you’re saying?
Andrus: Yeah, no, it very much is. Like, these are famous South Texas restaurants taking brisket off of the menu, which would have been unheard of just a couple of years ago.
Sargent: That’s pretty remarkable. So you discussed some of the new DCCC polling on these races. You provided these numbers to me as well. Let’s just go quickly over them again.
In Texas’s Fifteenth District, Democrat Bobby Pulido, the challenger, is leading GOP Congresswoman Monica De La Cruz by 49 to 43. And in Texas’s Thirty-Fourth District, you have Democratic incumbent Congressman Vicente Gonzalez, as we discussed, leading Republican challenger Eric Flores by 47 to 40. What’s driving those shifts?
Andrus: I think a lot of it is the economy. And you know, it sounds repetitive to say it over and over again, but it really cannot be overstated how hard Republican economic policies are hitting folks down in South Texas. You know, for you or I—and talking about the grocery prices again—for you or I, where a trip to the grocery store might be, you know, ten minutes, it’s nothing.
In these rural parts of South Texas, especially in the RGV and places like that, a drive to the grocery store can be 30 minutes each way. And so when you are thinking about how much gas costs now, to just make your weekly trip to the grocery store eats up that much of your gas budget for the month.
Sargent: Well, let’s say one more thing about these districts. Trump won the Fifteenth District in South Texas by nearly 18 points in 2024. He won the Thirty-Fourth District by 10 points. So the shift toward Trump in the Rio Grande Valley and in nearby counties was really a profound thing. It was a very big event.
Now, what is the role of Latinos in all this? We reported this week in The New Republic that in both these districts, Trump’s approval on immigration among Latinos is down in the thirties. And I’m wondering if you guys are seeing something similar. I know you keep talking about the economy. What’s driving this Latino shift for you guys? Is there an immigration component as well?
Andrus: Yeah, so I kind of want to talk about two things here, because you mentioned Trump being underwater in these districts after winning them by so much. And you know, our internal polling backs that up. In Texas 15, right now, only 36 percent of folks that we surveyed approve of the job that Donald Trump is doing. It’s 35 percent in Texas 34. So these are just abysmal numbers for House Republicans to have to try to overcome.
But then also, kind of going towards the immigration angle, I think that definitely plays a part of it. And it plays a large part because of the way it impacts everyday life down in these communities. You know, folks like Vicente Gonzalez have said for years that we needed a strong and secure border and we need safe communities. He’s been right on this issue for years and years.
But what these communities don’t want is the chaotic and terroristic enforcement that we are seeing now. They aren’t going after hardened criminals. You know, they aren’t going after the worst of the worst, like they said that they were going to. They’re picking up nuns on their way to church. They’re picking up high school students and mariachi bands. You know, Monica De La Cruz touted these young mariachi players in D.C., and then she voted for the same machine that went in and detained them.
And so I think we are seeing it just play out in everyday life for folks down there. And also, I know we’re talking about the economy a lot, but this immigration enforcement is also impacting the economy down there. Homes that once took three or four months to build are now taking eleven months, because people are afraid to go to work, because they don’t know if they’re going to be able to go home that day. Because that is who they’re picking up.
They’re picking up folks outside of Home Depot, by policy. That’s it. That’s who they want to go and get. They want to get the people outside of Home Depot, not the drug traffickers and not the dangerous criminals. They’re picking up hardworking families.
Sargent: I want to try to underscore the magnitude of the shift against Trump. Again, he won the Fifteenth District by nearly 18 points, and now his approval rating is 36 percent. He won the Thirty-Fourth District by 10 points, and now his approval rating is 35 percent. Those numbers are correct, right?
Andrus: Yep, that is correct. And you know, right next door in Texas 28, which we haven’t talked about a ton just yet, his approval numbers are even worse. Only 28 percent of the people that we surveyed in Texas 28 approve of Donald Trump.
Sargent: Well, you just brought up Texas’s Twenty-Eighth District. That’s where Democratic incumbent Henry Cuellar is facing a Republican challenger, and it’s a very competitive race. Guess what? Trump won that district by 10 points as well in 2024. But now you guys have his approval in the twenties, right?
Andrus: Yeah, in the twenties. Just 28 percent of people approve of the job he is doing right now, with 60 percent disapproving. It’s just truly abysmal numbers for House Republicans to try to overcome.
And Tano Tijerina, the Republican challenging Henry Cuellar, was out at that party in Dallas on stage talking about how great things are going. Things are not going great for folks in South Texas when they are struggling to pay their bills and make it to the end of the week.
Sargent: So I understand the economy is on everybody’s minds, and it’s a really, really intense thing for a lot of people, and it’s very preoccupying. It’s at the center of all these races. But I can’t help but notice that there’s just not that much discussion of the immigration stuff on the trail.
I don’t hear that much from Bobby Pulido or from the other Democrats in South Texas. Am I wrong about that? Are they advertising on immigration in any way? And if not, why not?
Andrus: No, I actually do think you hear about it a lot from Bobby Pulido. When that mariachi band was detained, it was actually Bobby Pulido who sounded the alarm about this. He is the first person to speak out when those kids got detained. The family reached out to Monica De La Cruz’s office—the family reached out, that mariachi band. And Monica De La Cruz’s office told them that there was nothing that they could do about it, until Bobby Pulido posted about it and his post went viral.
And so I think, when it comes also to the nun who was detained just a few weeks after, it was Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez who sounded the alarm about all of this happening. And so I do think our South Texas folks are talking about this issue, but they’re talking about it in ways that it directly impacts their communities.
And I think a big part of that is that they are not going after the hardened criminals and the worst of the worst. They’re going after those kids and, you know, people just on their way to church.
Sargent: Is there a risk of overextending here by going after some of these—I want to be clear, like, I think Democrats should compete everywhere. Like, I’m thrilled that Democrats are putting huge resources into the Rio Grande Valley and going after places that Trump won by 10, 18 points. But I do want to ask, is there some risk of overextension here? Or are the resources there for contesting all these places to the degree that they need to be contested?
Andrus: We do have the resources, and we’ve shown that we have the resources to contest in these races. That’s why our polling is doing so well, because we’ve been playing in all of these places for over a year now, and we invested early in these kinds of districts, and that investment is paying off.
Look, we are not taking any voter or any district for granted. We are going to work from now until November 3 to earn every single one of those votes. And it’s especially important in Texas, where we saw this mid-decade redistricting happen to try to subvert the will of Texas voters.
I think it is critically important that people know that we didn’t just roll over and accept that. We fought, and we’re fighting, and we’re winning in those redistricted districts.
Sargent: Can I ask, is there any risk of overextension here or not?
Andrus: No, I don’t think so. And I think, you know, when you talk to folks who do the work in, you know, New Jersey and Pennsylvania and places like that, we are still laser-focused on flipping those seats, but we are also focused on expanding the battlefield and expanding the map, and delivering the largest House majority that we can come January.
Sargent: Well, you’re going to need to get those numbers up, in part because of the redistricting, which has taken a bunch off the board, really. Although maybe not, we’ll see.
Andrus: Yeah, it really hasn’t, not in the way that they thought they would. You know, Texas 35 was one of those redistricted seats, and Johnny Garcia is doing some really incredible things out there.
Sargent: Right. Just to underscore the point, Republicans redistricted Texas and they thought that they were actually creating seats that would be easier for them to pick up as well. But some of those are now in real trouble for them, right?
Andrus: No, they’re in a lot of trouble. You know, you’re seeing them having to pour millions and millions of dollars into districts that they thought that they had locked up. You know, when Republicans redrew and created this new Texas 35 district, they thought that it was a lock. What they didn’t expect was for a pissed-off sheriff like Johnny Garcia to throw his hat in the ring, because he wanted to stand up and fight for his communities. And we’re seeing that it is working. It is really resonating with people.
I mentioned that I was down in South Texas just two weeks ago with Johnny Garcia. One of the other conversations we had while we were just walking around in this neighborhood was, he went up to go talk to some guy, and he said, you know, I’ve never voted for a Democrat before in my life, but I’m going to vote for you because I remember you from the sheriff’s department. And I think that is the kind of community connections that Democrats are making in these districts all across the battlefield. And that is what is really going to deliver us these wins come November.
Sargent: OK, are you prepared to predict today that you guys are going to win Texas’s Fifteenth, Texas’s Twenty-Eighth, and Texas’s Thirty-Fourth? Again, these are districts Trump won by a lot.
Andrus: Yep. We’re going to win each and every one of them.
Sargent: Well, there you go. Madison Andrus, thank you so much for joining us. I hope you’re right.
Andrus: All right, yeah. Thanks for having me. It was a great time.
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