Andy Burnham is leaving the door open to a snap general election next year, The i Paper has been told.
Multiple sources close to the No 10 operation have suggested that an early election in May has not been ruled out, despite the Prime Minister insisting publicly that there will be no early poll.
In a round of interviews last week, Burnham appeared to shut down the prospect, saying: “No, no election any time soon. I’m focused on the job as Prime Minister doing what I said I would do.”
Asked by ITV Calendar whether the next general election would be in 2029, he was even more emphatic: “Yes, that’s when the next election will be. All of this speculation on an early election, I can knock that dead.”
Many Labour MPs and polling experts have warned against risking the Government’s 166-seat majority, with recent polls giving Labour only a slender lead over Reform.
However, behind the scenes, some of Burnham’s closest advisers concede there is still a chance he could go to the country in May.
A source close to the PM told The i Paper: “There is a growing school of thought that there might be a sweet spot for an early general election.”
The argument is that Burnham could go to the country before the right has a chance to reunite, given Labour’s much weaker performance in 2019 when the right was more united – in what was widely dubbed the “Brexit election” – than it was in 2024.
Another No 10 source suggested Burnham would “give the country time to get to know the new PM” before making a final decision, which would be likely to depend on how well this month’s Budget lands, and the size of any “Burnham bounce”.
Labour officials have also been instructed to “be ready” for an early election, although a senior party source stressed that no decision has been made.
Policy announcements ‘point to early election’
Some commentators have suggested that the tone and content of Burnham’s conference speech on Tuesday could be consistent with laying the groundwork for an early election.
The speech set out a sweeping programme of policies, including a new National Care Service, greater public control of water, changes to the voting system towards proportional representation, and a closer long-term relationship with the EU.
Some observers noted that the breadth of these commitments made the speech sound more like the beginnings of an election platform than a programme focused solely on governing until 2029.
There is a precedent for politicians insisting that an election is not going to happen, only for circumstances to change very shortly afterwards. Theresa May repeatedly ruled one out before calling an early poll which saw her throw away the Conservatives’ majority in the Commons.
May told Andrew Marr in September 2016 that she was “not going to be calling a snap election” and the next one would be in 2020. By March 2017, Downing Street was still saying an early election was “not going to happen”.
Yet on 18 April, just weeks later, May announced she would call one for 8 June – which left her red-faced after the result turned her 17-seat majority into a hung parliament.
There is a more recent example. After being re-elected mayor of Greater Manchester for a third term in 2024, Burnham had said: “I’m here for a full third term. I’m not planning to head back to Westminster any time soon.”
Yet less than two years later he sought a return to Parliament. The subsequent Makerfield by-election was triggered when Labour MP Josh Simons resigned specifically to give Burnham the opportunity to claim the seat.
‘Look at Theresa May, she f**ked it’
However, many Labour MPs say they would be vehemently opposed to an early election.
One minister told The i Paper that a spring poll was “for the birds” and Burnham would be mindful of how May threw away the Conservatives’ majority in 2017. “Theresa May. Twenty points ahead. F**ked it. That’s all you need to know,” they said.
A Labour MP agreed it was too risky. “Labour governments – let alone landslides – happen once every 25 to 30 years,” they said.
“Why would you potentially throw it all away to potentially make yourself feel better that you have your mandate when it could also end up with you losing outright or being dependent on Lib Dems and nationalists? I don’t think you work for 16 years towards becoming leader and PM to roll the dice when you have up to 2.5 years.”
A backbencher said that for a “punt” on an early election to be considered, Labour would need to be polling near to 35 per cent – currently it is sitting at about 24 per cent.
The Government also had considerable work to be getting on with in relation to issues such as social care “to get to some form of arrangement that can then be presented [in the next manifesto]”, they added.
Another backbencher agreed that Burnham would forego an early election to concentrate on laying the groundwork for his 10-year plan. They said that many of his policies could take years to reach fruition and be felt by the public. “We’re going to f**king smash it in year seven,” they said.
Rob Ford, professor of political science at the University of Manchester, said calling an early election would be a bad idea. “Look at the polls. This would be a very brave decision to call an election when you’re at 25 per cent in the polls, when the MRP models are saying that 100+ of your backbench colleagues and frontbench colleagues will lose their seats,” he added.
He said the latest modelling showed John Healey and Yvette Cooper would both lose their seats. “What the average voter will say is, ‘But you’ve got all of those seats. Why don’t you just get on with it?’ And until and unless Labour has an answer to that, I don’t see how it can make sense for them to go.”
A No 10 spokesperson said: “The PM has ruled out an early election.”
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