Splits have emerged in the Conservative Party over Kemi Badenoch’s pledge to stick with the state pension triple lock.
Sir Andrew Mitchell, a former Cabinet minister, told The i Paper that the triple lock “must be reformed”, but other MPs fear that coming out against the lock will result in the Tories being “outflanked” by Reform UK.
On Tuesday, Prime Minister Andy Burnham used his Labour conference speech to announce that the lock will end in its current form in April 2030 to help pay for free-at-the-point-of-use social care.
Under the current triple lock, the state pension rises each year in line with the highest of earnings, inflation or 2.5 per cent.
The policy has ended up being much more expensive than it was expected to be when it was introduced by Conservative chancellor George Osborne in 2011, with the Office for Budget Responsibility forecasting that by 2030 it will cost £15.5bn a year – three times its original estimate.
If Labour wins the next election, a new “adjusted” lock will see the state pension instead rise each year by at least inflation or 2.5 per cent, while also holding its value relative to earnings over time.
According to analysis published by the Department for Work and Pensions on Wednesday, when inflation is taken into account, the change is forecast to save £11bn a year by 2040.
In her immediate reaction to the speech, Badenoch said that Burnham’s plan to change the lock was “falling apart under scrutiny” and that the measure would not generate enough savings for decades, “which means more tax rises are inevitable”.
The Tories doubled down in support of the lock on Wednesday by launching an online petition urging Burnham to “cut welfare, not the triple lock”.
However, splits have opened up in Tory ranks over the position.
Sir Andrew Mitchell, one of the longest-serving Conservative MPs, told The i Paper: “I think in the long run we need to accept that the triple lock must be reformed.
“It’s significantly served the purpose we set for it back in 2010 under David Cameron and it needs to be reined back.”
He joins the former Tory chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who has also called for the lock to be reformed. Hunt said on Tuesday: “We’ve been funding it partly by borrowing from our children and our grandchildren.”
Tom Tugendhat, the shadow Foreign Secretary, has also previously voiced scepticism about the long-term sustainability of the lock.
However, with Reform coming out against Burnham’s plans, some Tory MPs think that in electoral terms they simply cannot afford to abandon the lock.
One Tory MP told The i Paper: “We need to protect the triple lock to support pensioners and cannot be outflanked by Reform.”
Polling for The i Paper revealed that Burnham could lose support from Labour voters at the next election with his pledge to end the triple lock.
The triple lock is particularly popular among Conservative and Reform voters, with 69 per cent of Tory supporters and 62 per cent of Reform backers in favour of the policy.
By comparison, 59 per cent of Labour voters and 53 per cent of Liberal Democrat voters support the triple lock.
Burnham’s political opponents were unanimous in criticising the move on Wednesday, with Nigel Farage accusing the Prime Minister of “launching an offensive against our elderly” and calling for an early general election.
Lib Dem leader Ed Davey argued any reforms to social care “can’t be funded from the pockets of our poorest pensioners”.
Meanwhile, the Green Party’s Zack Polanski – despite just 43 per cent of his party’s voters supporting the triple lock – criticised the Government for “going after pensioners”, saying it should “tax the rich” instead.
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