On any level it was politically brave. But was it “electoral suicide”, as Unite union head Sharon Graham had warned? Andy Burnham not only signalled the end of the triple lock, he suggested how it is to be done. The Prime Minister’s argument that the benefit – under which the state pension rises in line with inflation, wages growth or 2.5 per cent, whichever is highest — is ultimately both unaffordable and unfair. From 2030 it will link the state pension to whichever is higher of inflation or 2.5 per cent
Simply put, in order to pay for a new National Care Service, free at the point of use and to ease the corresponding strain on the NHS, something has to give. “Someone has to go through the pain barrier and rip the plaster off,” Burnham said in his keynote address to Labour’s annual conference. “This change will generate significant savings which we will use to build up our National Care Service.”
The Institute for Fiscal Studies says the triple lock has added an extra £16 billion to the annual state pensions bill since 2011, compared to aligning increases with wage growth. Keeping it in place could add as much as £40 billion to the price tag by 2050. Burnham said that the change would generate “significant savings” while ensuring that the state pension holds its value relative to earnings over time. “Pensioners will always share in the rising prosperity of the nation,” he promised.
In a moving section, the Prime Minister spoke about the experience of his own family. He said that he “despaired” at the care his grandmother, Kitty, received, recalling how her engagement ring was “ripped from her finger” and stolen in a care home. “Care not worthy of the name,” he said. “The modest savings she had built up and the house where I was born? All taken to pay for it.”
He said that the current system is an “indictment of my generation of politicians”, with carers on “poverty pay” holding a “threadbare system” together. The speech was a turning point, a leader moving away from the cheaper, feel-good policies that dominated the summer, and expand his longer-term vision for tackling some of the biggest challenges facing the country.
His argument is that while young people are struggling to find jobs and get on the housing ladder, pensioners see their incomes rise. But he’s not yet won the fight even in the Labour movement.
Labour suffered badly when it scrapped pensioners’ winter fuel benefit. Voters, old and young, believe pensioners should be protected. So trying to sell an argument about intergenerational unfairness will not be the way to win, according to More in Common pollster Luke Tryl. “The best way to persuade people to support the triple lock being reformed is to show how it will benefit pensioners themselves, rather than being a net loss, or a transfer to other generations,” Tryl said.
Burnham briefed his Cabinet on the triple lock change at a meeting in Liverpool on Tuesday morning that ran long as they discussed all the policy announcements he had planned. At the height of his powers, he told Cabinet colleagues exactly what was happening, rather than ask for their advice. No worry about being the constitutional first among equals here.
“I will try my best to find common ground but let me be clear: where I can’t agree with others, I will fight hard for what I believe to be right and what I believe to be in the best interests of this country,” Burnham later warned in his speech. His allies call it leadership. But a Cabinet minister privately warned Labour could be “punished” by voters if the Government doesn’t make the case successfully with the public. However, they added, “We are three years out from an election. There is a still time.”
Some support Burnham’s change in policy. A Labour MP, speaking privately to avoid internal fights with colleagues, said: “It’s bold and that’s why I like it. Why bother winning the election at all if you’re not going to do bold things?” Delegates also loved the speech. A standing ovation to repeal their bogeyman Margaret Thatcher’s “ideological ban on public ownership of water companies” to table a bill which will allow water companies to be taken into public ownership, drew widespread applause.
Burnham repeated his pledge to end rough sleeping, which was the first major announcement he made on the steps of Downing Street in July. More council homes are needed, he said, attacking the lack of building that has seen over a million people on housing waiting lists. A new leasehold bill will be introduced to parliament later this year to stop millions of people “being squeezed for every penny.” Landlords who rent out the worst quality homes will be given warnings to improve them and if they refuse, ministers will legislate if necessary to make it easier for councils to acquire those homes.
The Government will “speed up breaking the link” between domestic and international energy prices to bring down energy bills, he said. Tick, tick, tick for Labour’s priorities. Burnham mostly looked as if he was enjoying himself. There were some cloying moments: “good growth in every postcode, hope in every heart” is a phrase unlikely to survive repetition.
But the real emotion came when Burnham was about to mention his late father, Roy. He paused, trying to compose himself: a man who is yet to take time out to grieve properly, still processing his loss.
The hall rose to its feet, gave him a standing ovation to give him a moment to pull himself together. His voice cracked as he spoke about his father’s belief in the Labour Party. “The son of a man who failed his 11-plus becoming prime minister, the fact it could even happen in this country would not have been lost on him,” he said.
It was an extraordinary speech in which he challenged the Conservatives and Reform UK to a grown-up conversation about the future of the country. A refreshing change from tribal politics and vested interest groups pitted against each other.
But he’s yet to convince his own party, never mind the country, that the triple lock should be scrapped. This will not be the last we hear of it.
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