So, a month into SEC football and all is just like we thought, right?
Right?
OK, not so right?
Everybody who had Mississippi State and Kentucky ranked after four weeks, step forward. Everybody left, who had Texas A&M and Oklahoma being cooked?
OK, we feel better now anyway.
But the fun thing about the ebb and flow of the season is that every week, we get another chance to get it all right. Here’s where we see the teams of the SEC finishing the regular season, given the hindsight of a month of football.
Alabama (4-0, beat South Carolina 49-18): 10-2
Alabama gave what was likely its most consistent effort of the season in spanking South Carolina. But here’s the rise and fall of the SEC — the game with Texas A&M on October 24 now looks like it should be homecoming, while all of a sudden, Saturday’s trip to Starkville is much more serious than anticipated. We’ll keep the Tide at 10-2, a likely CFP team with a chance to climb even higher.
Arkansas (2-2, beat Tulsa 34-6): 2-10
It was a good win over a Tulsa team that did beat Oklahoma State. But it’s the same story for Arkansas: how many times can it measure up in talent? Two potentially viable games — A&M and Vanderbilt — are on the road and the most plausible home win left is South Carolina. So for the moment, it’s 2-10 for the Hogs.
Auburn (3-1, beat Vanderbilt 21-15): 5-7
Not the prettiest of wins, but an essential one, because it keeps the possibility of 6 wins out there. But this schedule is just awful. Giving home wins over Arkansas and Samford, there’s not a likely sixth win — road games at UT, Georgia, Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Alabama, and a home game with LSU. It’s not out of the question, but it’s just not a situation to reasonably pick a sixth win for Auburn.
Florida (4-0, beat Mississippi State 52-28): 10-2
Florida earned this jump. As things stand, Georgia and at Texas both look like tall asks, but the rest of these games look eminently winnable. OK, so Florida might be getting a little bit lucky — no LSU, no Tennessee or Bama. The back half of the schedule is about as gentle as an SEC slate could be. The one real red flag is the Gators are 4-0 without a flicker of adversity. How will they respond under fire? Missouri would love to find out.
Georgia (4-0, beat Oklahoma 41-13): 11-1
It’s great to be the Georgia Bulldogs. The back end of this schedule is legitimate, but so is UGA. Again, the 11-1 isn’t a statement of a particular loss as much as the perils of navigating the league. Georgia is a front-runner in the national picture and nothing changes that.
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Kentucky (3-1, beat South Alabama 45-21): 6-6
Kentucky had a taking-care-of-business second half, but again kind of failed to put together a whole game. This weekend’s trip to South Carolina is massive. Win and a bowl season for Will Stein is almost certain — and conversations about 7-5 or 8-4 become legitimate. Lose and it’s still scrapping to get 6 wins. With Shane Beamer likely coaching for his job, who knows?
LSU (3-1, beat Texas A&M 35-6): 9-3
LSU got genuine consideration for 10-2. The tough games ahead are basically at home — trips to Kentucky and Tennessee are the scariest road matchups. But some more consistency is needed to be that certain on LSU, with a November ahead that opens with Bama, Texas, and heading to Knoxville. LSU went B-to-A in a game it had to have, but it’s probably wise not to overthink it.
Mississippi State (4-0, beat Missouri 31-24): 8-4
Mississippi State has been everything they could be. The problem is the schedule will kick up a notch. The Bulldogs could well leave October 5-3, with Bama, LSU, and Texas (the last 2 on the road) coming ahead. There’s a genuine shot at a ninth win here, with the Egg Bowl potentially being a CFP elimination game. Think that would be wild?
Missouri (3-1, lost to Mississippi State 31-24): 7-5
Mizzou could regain all of its mojo by holding down the home field against Florida. But absent that, this season could head into free fall. A&M and a trip to Ole Miss are ahead next and November opens with games against Texas and on the road at Georgia. That seems a little more plausible. We’ll give the Tigers a chance to jump back to the world of 8-4 and dreaming of 9-3… but it has to start immediately.
Oklahoma (2-2, lost to Georgia 41-13): 5-7
Oklahoma lived up my “Klahma” nickname. The Sners need to find some Os during a week off, because even a 6-6 season now looks daunting. Counting the most likely losses — Texas, at Florida, Ole Miss, and at Mississippi State — would get OU to 6-6 at best…. and that’s assuming it beats A&M, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Missouri. At this point, that game with A&M on November 21 looks like the battle of the 2 most disappointing football teams in the country. This Sooner team won’t sweep those noted 4 games above, so something bold has to happen. Brent Venables won’t survive 3 losing seasons in 5 years even if he has every 5-star recruit in the country.
Ole Miss (3-1, lost to Florida 52-28): 9-3
The schedule is about to be very good to the Ole Miss Rebels. It’s a good time for a week off and then getting to 5-1 with wins over Vanderbilt and Mizzou puts Ole Miss in good shape for a wildly uneven final run. Wofford, Auburn, and Oklahoma don’t look too rough, which leaves the Egg Bowl (at home), Texas on the road, and Georgia to finish. One of those 3 feels like the most likely scenario, and that’s where we’ve got Ole Miss.
South Carolina (2-2, lost to Alabama 49-18): 6-6
South Carolina may be facing the biggest game in the Shane Beamer era. If Will Stein and Kentucky can walk into Columbia in Stein’s first season and win, it’s hard to defend the USC coach with a 35-32 career record. Losing to Kentucky would destroy any room for error with Florida, Tennessee, and Georgia still ahead on the schedule. Lose those 4 and the path to .500 is through road games at Arkansas, Oklahoma, and Clemson, and a home game with Texas A&M. We’re holding Carolina at 6-6 because this game with Kentucky feels like a toss-up, but a pivotal toss-up.
Tennessee (3-1, lost to Texas 20-17): 9-3
Tennessee moves up with a loss. Yes, the offensive line has to tighten up. But the back end of the schedule isn’t as tough as it could be. Bama and LSU both are at home, and a road run of Arkansas, South Carolina, Texas A&M, and Vandy doesn’t look too imposing. We’ll keep Tennessee in that CFP hunt, but still needing a few good breaks at the end of the season.
Texas (4-0, beat Tennessee 20-17): 10-2
Texas looks all but destined for the CFP now. The October games are tough, but other than Oklahoma (which does not look tough), the Longhorns are at home. November brings the road trips, but Missouri, LSU, and A&M, while challenging, shouldn’t knock Texas significantly off course. There was genuine consideration here for 11-1 and after a week off, we might be on board with the Horns finishing there.
Texas A&M (2-2, lost to LSU 35-6): 5-7
Texas A&M may find its season hinging on the Oklahoma game on the road on November 21. Wins are ahead against Arkansas and The Citadel, but losses to Missouri and Bama on the road get the Aggies to November at 4-4. Home games with Tennessee and Texas feel like losses, which would leave the Aggies having to win at South Carolina and Oklahoma to reach 6 wins. Since that game is in Norman, we’ll go with A&M to fall to 5-7 and leave a massive hot seat in College Station to start 2027.
Vanderbilt (3-1, lost to Auburn 21-15): 4-8
Vanderbilt can look forward to the home game with Arkansas. And not much else.
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