College football’s top quarterbacks, for the most part, played very well in Week 3.
There’s a new No. 1 in this week’s national QB rankings and another significant riser in the bottom half of the top 7. The sample size for these quarterbacks is still relatively small — especially against Power 4 competition — but we learn more and more with each passing week.
Note: I’ll be leaning heavily on available advanced statistics, which recently got better thanks to CollegeFootballData.com’s addition of new passing metrics. Some data points like air yards and pass direction don’t yet have full coverage for the 2025 season, but the data is complete (or close to it) from Week 8 onwards. That gives us a workable sample size for these rankings, but it’s admittedly not bulletproof.
A few helpful definitions to know:
CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected) — actual completion % minus expected completion %, where “expected” is what an average FBS QB would complete given each throw’s depth, direction, down, distance, and field position. Dead-end play rate — share of all QB plays (pass attempts + sacks + rushes) that gain 4 yards or fewer without converting a first down or scoring. Measures how wasteful a QB is on a down-to-down basis. (Rush) success rate — share of QB rush attempts that gain 50% of the yards-to-go on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, or 100% on 3rd/4th (TDs always count). Sacks and kneel-downs are excluded. ADOT (Average Depth of Target) — average air yards per attempt: how far downfield past the line of scrimmage the average throw is aimed, counting incompletions and INTs at their intended target depth. Measures aggressiveness and intent, but not whether the pass was completed. Deep-throw rate — share of attempts targeted 15+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage.CFB quarterback rankings
Here’s my top 7 for Week 4:
1. Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss (Last week: 2)
Look, there’s not much of a statistical case for Trinidad Chambliss to be at No. 1 when you compare his advanced stats to Darian Mensah. Chambliss is just 41st in the nation in passer efficiency rating through 3 weeks. But it’s undeniable how consistent and heroic he’s been in ranked wins over Louisville and LSU so far this season. How can I punish Chambliss for relative inefficiencies when his tests have been much tougher than what Mensah and Miami have faced so far this season?
The advanced metrics say Chambliss has been comfortably above-average this season, but not much more than that — a 6% CPOE and a 2.7% sack rate are the headlining figures. I’d point out that Chambliss’s ability to remain highly-efficient on an enormous volume has been his superpower so far in 2026. He’s already attempted 84 passes vs. power-conference opposition, which is the second-most in the country.
2. Darian Mensah, Miami (Last Week: 1)
Darian Mensah had a somewhat-underwhelming game against Wake Forest in Week 3, which makes it a bit easier to drop him from the No. 1 spot. He threw for 220 yards and 3 touchdowns, but it came on 34 attempts. Over half of those yards went to star receiver Malachi Toney as the Canes’ offense sputtered in the second half. Still, Mensah is running a 25% CPOE and a 26% dead-end play rate so far this season. That’s outrageous.
Someone looking to pick nits could point out that Mensah’s ADOT has slipped below 8 yards. There will perhaps be diminishing returns on his Heisman Trophy upside if he’s not willing to push the ball downfield more consistently.
Prediction Markets Who are the favorites to win the 2026 Heisman Trophy? Learn more about Prediction Markets Kalshi Trinidad Chambliss 20% Darian Mensah 18% Jeremiah Smith 9% Kamario Taylor 8% Arch Manning 7% CJ Carr 7% Gunner Stockton 5% Malachi Toney 4% Julian Sayin 3% Jayden Maiava 3% Predict3. Julian Sayin, Ohio State (Last week: 3)
Julian Sayin sticks at No. 3 this week after he threw for over 10 yards per attempt in a 59-3 win over Kent State. Sayin has a 12% CPOE on the year and has an ADOT north of 11. There’s only a handful of quarterbacks who clear both of those thresholds and none of the other have Sayin’s long track record of consistent success.
4. Gunner Stockton, Georgia (Last week: 4)
Gunner Stockton holds on to the No. 4 spot this week after another laughably-efficient performance. Making his first start vs. an SEC opponent this year, Stockton threw for 147 yards on just 13 pass attempts against Arkansas. He also rushed for 97 yards. Stockton’s running game continues to be an undersold part of his profile. Since the start of last season, he’s averaging more than 45 rushing yards per game (sack-adjusted) against power-conference opponents. For context, that’s more than Arch Manning, Bryce Underwood, Chambliss, CJ Bailey and numerous other quarterbacks who have more of a dual-threat reputation.
5. Kamario Taylor, Mississippi State (Last week: 7)
For a while against South Carolina, it looked like Kamario Taylor might not be quite ready for road environments in the SEC. But by the end of the game, Taylor had 251 passing yards, 4 touchdowns and a relatively easy win. Statistically, Taylor now has a 7% CPOE and a 73% rushing success rate — showing an absurd combination of accuracy and athleticism. There may be more growing pains down the line in SEC play, but I think Taylor will be the consensus best quarterback in the country before he’s done with college football.
6. Jayden Maiava, USC (Last week: 5)
Jayden Maiava slips a spot this week to make room for Taylor, but he is having an excellent season. Maiava is the nation’s leader in passing yards (he’s already played 4 games, which helps in that regard) and has been efficient to the tune of a 14% CPOE and a 32% dead-end play rate. The competition gets much stiffer this week, though, with Oregon coming to Los Angeles in a battle that could have major implications for the Big Ten title hunt.
7. CJ Carr, Notre Dame (Last week: 6)
CJ Carr clings to a spot on this list for another week. He averaged nearly 10 yards per attempt in a comfortable win over Michigan State, though he didn’t throw a touchdown pass. Carr is accurate (10% CPOE), doesn’t take sacks (2.7% sack rate) or put the ball in harm’s way (0 interceptions). Those numbers are consistent with what he posted over a larger sample in 2025, too.
On the radar
In no particular order:
Josh Hoover, Indiana: Hoover is absolutely lighting up the advanced metrics this year (17% CPOE) and hasn’t had the same problem with negative plays that he had at TCU. Of course, IU hasn’t played anybody with a pulse yet, which is why he’s not quite in my top 7. We’ll see if he can keep this up in Big Ten play in the coming weeks. I like his chances to do so for at least the next couple weeks with Northwestern and Rutgers due up.
Michael Hawkins, West Virginia: Michael Hawkins absolutely bullied a ranked Virginia team on the road this past week. Eleven yards per pass attempt, 123 rushing yards and 5 total touchdowns (3 rushing, 2 passing). He’s averaging over 100 rushing yards per game this season with a CPOE over 12%. He’s pushing the ball downfield too with a 13 yard ADOT. He very well could be the best quarterback in the Big 12 this season.
Katin Houser, Illinois: I wasn’t really expecting Katin Houser to be on the radar at this point in the season, but he’s been exceptional to start the season with a 13% CPOE and a strong 2.4% sack rate. He looks to be having a breakout season.
Keelon Russell, Alabama: Keelon Russell is back on the radar and could easily crack the top-7 in the next couple of weeks if he keeps doing what he’s been doing over a larger sample size. A 12% CPOE and a 67% rushing success rate carry the profile. He is taking a few too many sacks right now (6.7% sack rate) but it’s still very early in his career. The flashes of potential have been very high so far this season.
Ethan Grunkemeyer, Virginia Tech: Ethan Grunkemeyer was excellent this past week against Maryland, throwing for 314 yards and 3 touchdowns. On the season, he’s running a 14% CPOE, which is excellent. I’ll note, though, that he isn’t pushing the ball downfield at all with an ADOT under 7 yards and a deep-throw rate under 16%. Both are well-below average for FBS quarterbacks in 2026, let alone elite passers.
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