The centrist strategists in Washington have had one message for Democrats trying to win back seats in this year’s midterm elections: Appeal to Trump voters. Don’t make them angry. Moderate on cultural issues. And don’t be a socialist.
Whatever moral or political objections anyone has to that advice, there’s another big reason candidates can feel free to ignore it: There’s good evidence it doesn’t work.
Way to Win, a left-leaning “strategic donor collaborative and strategy hub” founded after the 2016 election, has been working with Lake Research Partners to investigate why Democrats lost in 2024. In a report last year, they found that many voters weren’t necessarily more conservative and switched to Trump, but instead stayed home instead of voting for Vice President Kamala Harris. On Thursday, the two groups released the second phase of their research, revealing which messages resonate enough with uncommitted voters to convince them to vote for Democrats in the midterms this November.
The research surveyed persuadable voters in the middle: low-motivation Democrats and independents, voters who picked Trump in 2024 but feel negatively about the economy, and those who hold unfavorable views of both parties. It focused on voters in Arizona, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, Nevada, and Texas because these states have growing populations that are younger and more diverse than the nation as a whole, which means they could hold the key to future victories, as well as one this fall. The survey dial-tested messages to see which ones won these key voters over for Democrats.
The research found that populist economic messages and anti-fraud messages that named specific harms from corruption won across all of these groups. Some of the most popular messages included statements like, “Our leaders should be fighting to make all of our lives better,” and, “We need leaders willing to stand up to right-wing corporate interests that hold influence in both political parties.” Other popular messages named no-bid contracts, donor favors, ballrooms, monuments, and corporate price gouging as some of the consequences of government corruption. These messages worked better than the more conservative options, and also worked better than simply bashing Trump, which might feel too partisan for voters.
In the beginning of the survey, the generic ballot was nearly evenly split, with Democrats losing to Republicans 43–44. After the messages were tested, Democrats pulled ahead 48–39. “We’ve tested the conservative message, and we trounced it,” said Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners.
What that means overall is that trying to aim for the center might only yield a narrow slice of the voters whom Democrats need to win, but a more robust populist message could also work for those voters and win over many more who are all necessary for a Democratic win. That’s especially important in the midterms, when turnout rates drop from the sixtieth percentile, where it is in presidential years, to below 50 percent. Who votes and who stays home becomes critical.
A lot of the voters already liked the sound of some Democratic messaging but didn’t necessarily believe the Democratic candidates in their elections were going to make a real difference, said Jenifer Fernandez Ancona, a co-founder and vice president of Way to Win. “There is an issue on whether they feel like Democrats are fighting for them,” she said. That may be changing as we near November, she said. More respondents seem to have faith in messages that promised a “government that works” or “prioritizes people.” “In other polls or research studies we’ve done before, when we try to say Democrats are fighting for this, people really don’t believe it,” she said. “But in this moment, it feels like there is actually an opening, and that could be because of what people have seen over the past year.”
Even still, voters don’t just want to hear about everything terrible Trump has done since returning to the White House, but what Democrats can actually do to improve these problems. With politicians like Mayor Zohran Mamdani in New York City working to deliver on their promises, voters are more persuaded than ever that these problems are solvable. “People are seeing more Democrats fighting and winning, and so that is also kind of part of the new moment,” Fernandez Ancona said.
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