Saturday’s UEFA Nations League action is headlined by a huge clash at Wembley. We look ahead to the game with our England vs Spain prediction and preview.
England vs Spain: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer has struggled to split the teams, though Spain are made slight favourites with a win percentage of 40.2%. World champions Spain are unbeaten in each of their last 38 matches in all competitions (W29 D9), the longest ever streak by a European nation. England have won just two of their last 13 games against the reigning FIFA World Cup holders (D2 L9), though one of those wins was at home to Spain in November 2011.Before a stirring semi-final fightback from Argentina, arguably aided by some suspect substitutions from Lautaro Martínez, the Three Lions had to contest the third-place play-off with France, edging a frantic encounter 6-4, before watching Spain’s 1-0 victory over Argentina in the showpiece match from afar.
Having received stern criticism in the wake of that semi-final collapse, Tuchel needs to rebuild some trust with England’s fans, and he has a blockbuster fixture to prepare for as Spain visit Wembley Stadium in the UEFA Nations League on Saturday.
England are back in the top tier of the competition after suffering a humiliating relegation to League B in 2022-23, having to fight their way out of the second level in 2024-25. They did so with five wins from six games under interim boss Lee Carsley (L1), with their current three-match winning streak being their longest ever in the competition.
It is important to remember that Tuchel has the best win rate of any England manager to ever lead the team for at least 10 matches, at 77% (P22 W17 D2 L3), while the Three Lions have only averaged more goals per game under Walter Winterbottom (2.8) than Tuchel (2.3).
England have also won 10 of their last 11 competitive home matches (L1), including each of their most recent five without conceding.
Only once in their history have England’s men previously won six consecutive competitive home games to nil, under Roy Hodgson and Gareth Southgate between March 2015 and March 2017. That run also spanned Sam Allardyce’s short-lived tenure, but he, of course, never got to lead the team out on home soil.
Tuchel has had to contend with a series of withdrawals ahead of this extended, four-game international break, with Tino Livramento, Kobbie Mainoo, Cole Palmer, Marcus Rashford and Declan Rice all pulling out of England’s squad.
Everton’s Jude Bellingham has scored seven goals in 10 appearances for England in 2026, with David Platt being the last midfielder to net more for them in a calendar year back in 1993 (eight).
He will reprise his partnership with Mikel Oyarzabal (four). The Real Sociedad forward has 26 goal involvements across his last 25 international appearances (19 goals, 7 assists), a run that started with him scoring the winner against England in the Euro 2024 final.
Spain enter the game defending a 38-match unbeaten run in all competitions, winning 29 games and drawing nine in that time. It is the longest ever streak by a European nation, dating back to a 1-0 defeat to Colombia in March 2024, which did take place on English soil, at West Ham United’s London Stadium.
Spain’s last competitive defeat, which came all the way back in March 2023, also occurred in Britain, as they lost 2-0 to Scotland in a qualifier for Euro 2024. Might that be a positive omen for England?
England vs Spain Head-to-Head
Spain have won six of their last nine meetings with England across all competitions (D1 L2), most recently winning 2-1 in the Euro 2024 final in Berlin.
Their last away game against the Three Lions also ended in a 2-1 victory, at Wembley in the first edition of the Nations League, in September 2018.
Southgate’s England side did manage a memorable victory in the reverse fixture of that group, though, with a Raheem Sterling brace and a Rashford goal sealing a 3-2 triumph in Seville.
But England have only won two of their last 13 games against the reigning World Cup holders, losing nine (D2).
One of those victories was a 1-0 triumph at home to Spain in November 2011, though, with the other being a 3-2 success in Germany in March 2016.
England vs Spain Prediction
This match looks almost too close to call on paper, and the Opta supercomputer has struggled to split them.
Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the predictive model, England were victorious in 33.6% and Spain in 40.2%, with the remaining 26.2% being drawn.
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