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The country with a plan to stop Putin – from civilian combat drills to escape routes

Lithuania is racing to protect targets and prepare its population for a potential Russian attack, with its prime minister saying the country is “constantly threatened”.

The Baltic country’s “total defence” doctrine offers a blueprint for how other European nations could defend against the threat from Vladimir Putin, involving volunteers and businesses alongside the military.

    Mindaugas Sinkevičius, Lithuania’s prime minister, told the BBC on Tuesday that his country is “constantly threatened” but that “there are plans for evacuation”.

    Lithuania, along with its Baltic neighbours, has faced a series of “hybrid attacks” below the threshold of warfare from Russia and Belarus, as security experts warn that Moscow may be preparing an attack on Nato territory.

    On Monday, flights were disrupted at the country’s main airport this week due to an aerial incursion with unidentified objects. Last week, Nato jets shot down a drone that entered Lithuanian airspace. In May, the parliament building was evacuated in response to a drone threat.

    But Lithuania is well prepared. Tens of thousands of citizens are training in defence and survival skills, critical infrastructure is gaining new protection and border security is increasingly formidable.

    Military police near the site of a suspected drone crash in Lithuania earlier this month (Photo: Lithuanian Army/Reuters)

    Reinforced border and sabotage attacks

    In 2014, Russia infiltrated eastern Ukraine and Crimea in 2014 using militant forces dubbed “little green men”, which it denied any connection with, who were able to gain a foothold before the full-scale invasion of 2022.

    Lithuania and its neighbours have taken steps to avoid a repeat of that scenario through the “Baltic Defence Line” along their borders, featuring layers of defensive lines including anti-tank fortifications, razor wire, bunkers and planned minefields, to be monitored by drones and surveillance equipment.

    Edward Lucas, a British journalist and security expert, and founder of the Baltic International Security Centre think-tank, said Russia would struggle to launch a surprise attack. “Only a pinprick attack [a small-scale, localised military strike] could be a surprise,” he said. “You could have 10 ‘little green men’ crossing the border, but they would all be dead within a day.”

    Lithuanian intelligence assesses that Moscow has increased its force presence across the border, but not to the extent that it could threaten a large-scale invasion, and believes it is unlikely to be able to do so while the majority of its military is committed to Ukraine.

    Vilnius, the country’s capital, has also sought, and received, assurance in the form of Nato forces being deployed to its territory. President Gitanas Nausėda announced on Tuesday that a new battalion of US soldiers is on its way to take up positions in Lithuania, following uncertainty over American commitment. Around 5,000 German troops are expected to begin deployment there next year.

    Dragon’s teeth anti-tank fortifications in the Baltic Defence Line (Photo: Ints Kalnins/Reuters)

    Lithuania’s state security agency, the VSD, says that Russia is most likely to escalate through sabotage attacks, as seen across Europe, including in a drone plot against a German airport and arson at Ukraine-linked British warehouses.

    “The GRU [Russian military intelligence agency] is seeking to improve the implementation of its operations and address their chaotic execution,” the VSD reported. It said that the agency was using a long chain of intermediaries to distance itself from “experienced individuals with criminal records willing to carry out operations for a relatively small financial reward”.

    Potential targets could include “shopping centres, restaurants, public transportation infrastructure and facilities related to military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine”, the agency said, adding that it had thwarted several operations involving “homemade incendiary devices or explosives disguisedas household appliances”.

    Vilnius is moving to harden such targets and build resilience. A power plant under construction in Lithuania, 19 miles from the border with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, will be protected by explosion-proof fencing and sensors for detecting underground movements. Its inner workings will be capable of surviving a drone strike, according to Andrius Semeskevicius, CEO of Lithuania’s electricity transmission system operator, Litgrid.

    “Previously, when designing our grid, we planned for natural disasters. Now, we think about all possible hybrid and non-hybrid threats,” he told Reuters on Tuesday.

    Bomb disposal experts respond to drone incident at Leipzig Airport in Germany on 5 August (Photo: Jens Schlueter/Getty Images)

    Civil resistance and emergency evacuations

    Vilnius is working to rapidly build 6,645 shelters that would serve an estimated 1.6 million people – more than half of the population.

    More than 32,000 citizens in the country took part in civil resistance training courses, including defence and survival skills, in the first six months of 2026, according to state media.

    Lucas points to a surge in membership of the Riflemen’s Union, a civilian volunteer force that offers wide-ranging support to the military and security services. “If something happens in a village and the nearest policeman is half an hour’s drive away, they can ask a Rifleman to take a look,” he said. “Was it someone letting off fireworks? Was it a stray drone that crashed? Was it little green men? it gives you a kind of 3D vision throughout the society.”

    Union members also take part in drills that simulate responding to outbreaks of pro-Russian militancy, with fears that the minority of ethnic Russians inside Lithuania could be used to spread disorder and weaken security.

    Members of Lithuania Riflemen’s Union (Photo: Petras Malukas/AFP/Getty)

    Lithuania has so far faced isolated aerial incursions by drones and balloons. But it has taken them seriously, shutting down infrastructure and government buildings, and evacuating personnel.

    The practice may be valuable if attacks escalate, Lucas suggests. “You can’t rule out a Russian drone or missile coming in and if it’s heading to [capital city] Vilnius, that is quite close to the border, you don’t have much time,” he said. “You don’t want a jet-powered Russian drone slamming into your parliament and knocking out half your MPs, so it is absolutely sensible to have a very well practised rehearsal.”

    Russia could plausibly disguise such an attack as an accident or the work of third parties, said Lucas, which could make it an attractive option for the Kremlin.

    Lithuania’s interior ministry announced in July it had approved plans for large-scale evacuations in emergency scenarios, under which the state could provide transport for vulnerable groups such as the elderly, people with disabilities, and families with young children.

    The government is also working with neighbouring Poland to develop road and bridge routes that could be used to evacuate civilians in one direction and bring military equipment the other way. The border between Poland and Lithuania includes the Suwalki Gap, which is shared with Kaliningrad, and military theorists have argued is a potential vulnerability the Kremlin could exploit.

    So as Britain works to urgently improve its readiness for a potential Russian attack – alongside the rest of Europe – we may benefit from looking to Lithuania and its Baltic neighbours for guidance on how to proceed.

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