Guenther Steiner has cast his eye over the second half of the 2026 Formula 1 season and sees two potentially significant developments unfolding at opposite ends of the drivers’ championship.
The former Haas team principal believes Max Verstappen’s frustrating campaign will continue without a victory, while Lando Norris has the momentum to turn his current deficit to George Russell into a second-place championship finish.
Neither prediction is short on intrigue. Verstappen remains one of the sport’s most formidable drivers, yet Red Bull’s RB22 has struggled to consistently match the pace of Mercedes and McLaren.
Meanwhile, Norris has quietly hauled himself back into contention after a difficult opening phase to the season.
Steiner sees no Verstappen breakthrough
Verstappen enters the second half of the campaign sixth in the standings on 145 points, already 147 behind championship leader Kimi Antonelli. His strongest results have been three second places in Austria, Hungary and Spain, but victory has remained stubbornly out of reach.
Steiner does not expect that to change.
Asked on The Red Flags Podcast whether Verstappen would end 2026 without a win, Steiner responded:
"Gas, he will not. Mercedes and McLaren are too strong, and it's just the car," the former Haas team chief explained. "He's not good enough. He will be Super Max, he will be on the podium, but I think that's the limit. That's the limit of that car."
Verstappen’s second place in Madrid offered a glimpse of how difficult the task has become. The Dutchman inherited the lead after Lando Norris lost out through a combination of an unfortunate virtual safety car timing and a slow pitstop, before the layout of the new circuit made overtaking exceptionally difficult.
It was a podium finish, but one that hardly suggested Red Bull has suddenly found the machinery needed to challenge Mercedes and McLaren on merit.
Norris tipped to overhaul Russell
Steiner’s second prediction is considerably more positive for Norris.
The reigning world champion has recovered strongly after McLaren’s difficult start to 2026, with a run of upgrades helping transform the team’s competitiveness. Norris followed victories in Hungary and the Netherlands with fourth at Monza and third in Madrid.
That sequence has brought him to within 25 points of Russell, who currently occupies second in the championship.
For Steiner, the direction of travel is enough to make a bold call.
"He will be second if he continues like this," Steiner said. "Look how happy the Lando boy is."
Read also: Steiner takes aim at Ben Sulayem over ‘deserving’ AlonsoNorris therefore has nine rounds remaining to erase the gap to Russell, while Verstappen faces the rather different challenge of trying to prove Steiner wrong.
With Mercedes currently setting the championship pace and McLaren showing signs of renewed strength, the coming races will reveal whether Steiner’s two predictions develop into the defining storylines of the second half of 2026.
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