Germany’s military power is growing. That makes some Europeans uneasy ...Middle East

Germany is forging a path to becoming a great military power once more, but its rise is dividing Europe.

While some have welcomed its growth at a time of heightened threats from Russia and doubts over US commitment to Nato, others have raised fears around competition and the recent advance of the far-right Alternative for Germany Party (AfD).

A military strategy document released by Berlin in April set out its ambitions to build the “strongest conventional army in Europe” backed by lavish spending, a sweeping recruitment drive and cutting-edge military technology.

Germany can now produce more ammunition than the US, according to the CEO of defence firm Rheinmetall, which opened the largest ammunition plant in Europe in Lower Saxony last September.

Berlin’s long period of strategic restraint after the Second World War is dead, replaced by the Zeitenwende (historic turning point) that was announced by former chancellor Olaf Scholz three days after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022.

In her new book, Germany Rearmed, Dr Liana Fix of the Council on Foreign Relations think-tank, wrote that the momentous shift marked “the long-awaited return of Germany as a military power … If Germany stays the course, it can reasonably be expected to become a great military power again by 2030.”

German planners now face the challenge of “how to strengthen Europe’s defence with the US in retreat, and avoid reviving the old ‘German question’: that a rearmed Germany could become too powerful and threaten European stability”, wrote Fix.

Berlin intends to more than double its armed forces to 460,000 within a decade. The defence budget will reach €152.8bn (£131.2bn) by 2029, more than that of the UK and France combined. The Bundeswehr is securing F-35 fighter jets and overhauling its fleet of Leopard tanks, with plans to acquire hundreds of Tomahawk cruise missiles.

Nato allies have long pushed for Berlin to abandon self-imposed restraints and take a leading role on defence. The US has pressed Germany to drive a continent-wide shift to greater investment. Poland has called for Europe’s largest economy to show “leadership” through higher defence spending.

No other country in Europe can bring such economic power to bear, said Armida van Rij, a European security specialist at the Centre for European Reform think-tank. “There is a recognition that we need Germany, in particular, because they have the fiscal headroom and they have the money,” she said, noting that France, Italy and the UK are “more constrained”.

Nato has always relied on US leadership, which has “provided discipline for the rest of the alliance”, added Van Rij. If the Trump administration follows through with threats to step back from its role, Nato could need a replacement, she suggests – and Germany would be a logical candidate.

But Berlin could struggle to fill America’s shoes, both in terms of military muscle and leadership experience. Ambitious targets for recruiting soldiers will have to overcome a widespread cultural aversion to military service, and weaponry production will rely on rapid creation of factories and supply chains.

Germany also faces the challenge of developing “a strategic culture that is willing to take risks”, says Van Rij, highlighting Berlin’s refusal to provide Taurus missiles to Ukraine even as the UK and France have supplied equivalents. Russia sees Germany as a relative “soft target” and will test its resolve, she added.

Berlin will have to step out of its comfort zone in other ways, such as stationing troops abroad, to play a leadership role in the alliance. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has sought to address this through the planned permanent deployment of thousands of soldiers to Lithuania to guard Nato’s eastern flank.

Germany has the disadvantage of being a non-nuclear power, although it is reportedly in talks to invest in Britain’s Trident as part of a move to integrate with a European nuclear umbrella. The UK spends about £3bn a year on maintaining its deterrent.

French military chiefs recently expressed fears that Germany’s progress could be detrimental to Paris’s position as the EU’s top-ranking military power. “We could fall behind,” said General Fabien Mandon, chief of France’s defence staff, in June. “If Germany continues at this pace, in five years, the argument that we have operational experience and a certain culture will no longer hold water. For the Americans, Germany is gradually becoming the European benchmark.”

French officials are concerned that much of Germany’s defence investment will strengthen its domestic companies at the expense of the rest of the continent – and France’s manufacturers.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the left-wing France Unbowed party, drew attention to the recent success of the AfD in local elections. AfD officials have criticised Holocaust memorials and a culture of “shame” around the Second World War, and proposed cutting aid to Ukraine.

“Under these conditions, the German military project to create Europe’s premier conventional army is unacceptable for France,” said Melenchon.

The rise of the AfD has raised alarms in Poland over potential German leadership, said Dr Jakub Bornio, a security analyst at the Institute of Central Europe in Lublin. He said that Germany had the resources to defend against Russia, “But there is no consensus. We are not clear whether we want them to lead Europe.”

The AfD’s openness to normalising relations with Russia has raised memories for some of the Nazi-Soviet pact to partition Poland in 1939. Another issue is the party’s rejection of reparations for the devastation inflicted on Poland in the Second World War, and its suggestions that Germany should be repaid.

“There is huge anti-German resentment that originates in history and mainly World War Two … and there are still some chapters between Poland and Germany that have not been closed,” said Bornio.

There is a popular perception that Germany “does not treat Poles equally”, he said, citing a refusal to share military technology.

Rising German military power could affect Poland’s ambitions. Warsaw leads defence spending in Europe as a proportion of GDP at close to 5 per cent, ploughing billions into F-35 fighter jets and South Korean tanks. German forces in Eastern Europe could come into competition with Poland’s aspirations to become a regional power, said Bornio.

Europe may need Germany to play a leading role in the continent’s security, but it is unlikely to be a smooth transition.

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