MLB Mailbag: Lowe, Alvarez, Woodruff, GM Searches ...Middle East

This week’s MLB Mailbag looks at Brandon Lowe’s qualifying offer candidacy and free agency, Francisco Alvarez’s trade value, the Brewers and Brandon Woodruff, and the three (so far) front office searches we know will be taking place this winter.

Let’s begin!

J. asks:

Could the Pirates extend a Qualifying Offer to Brandon Lowe? If so, do you think they will and, if so, what would be the likely result?

The Pirates can and should. My colleague Anthony Franco listed Lowe as a “likely” QO recipient in his recent rundown of this year’s prospective QO crop, but the only semblance of uncertainty there stemmed from whether the ever-frugal Pirates would put forth that kind of offer. If Lowe were on a team that didn’t habitually trot out payrolls in the $80-90MM range — this year’s $105MM payroll is somehow a club record — there wouldn’t be a question at all.

The Lowe trade has been a heist for the Pirates. To recap, the Bucs got Lowe, breakout reliever Mason Montgomery and outfielder Jake Mangum in a three-team trade sending Mike Burrows (who struggled for months and has been out since July 7 with elbow neuritis) from Pittsburgh to Houston. The Astros sent outfield prospect Jacob Melton and minor league righty Anderson Brito to the Rays.

Pittsburgh has gotten a career year out of Lowe. Montgomery has been a monster in the ‘pen and is controlled through 2030. Mangum has hit .281/.337/.366 in a larger-than-expected role after manning center field on the regular while Oneil Cruz recovered from a pair of broken fingers. It’s one of the best trades made by any team last winter and one of the best trades of Ben Cherington’s entire GM career (Boston included).

Lowe, meanwhile, has ripped 31 homers for a second straight season — his third career 30-homer campaign. After ranking as the worst defensive second baseman in the game in 2025 (-14 Defensive Runs Saved, -14 Outs Above Average), he now ranks among the best; he’s incredibly flipped those defensive grades on their head, now sitting with +14 marks from both DRS and OAA. FanGraphs pegs him at 4.4 wins above replacement. Baseball-Reference has him at 4.9.

Second basemen typically aren’t compensated all that well in free agency, but Lowe is going to be viewed as a bat first and foremost, with his position being secondary. That he’s turned in a career-best performance with the glove certainly won’t hurt things, but I imagine some clubs will be skeptical of his ability to replicate this level of defensive output. I don’t think there’s much of a chance Lowe accepts a QO, but even if he did, the Pirates should jump at the chance to have him back.

Nailing down what he might command in free agency is a bit tougher. There are some comps to consider, but since it’s rare for second basemen to get paid in free agency, the best data points come in the form of recent free agent signees who play other non-premium defensive positions.

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