Nothing marks the return of football season like the first battle between Chicago Bears fans and analytics giant Pro Football Focus. However, Bears fans are right to have beef with PFF’s evaluation of quarterback Caleb Williams, whose grade didn’t match what the eye test, traditional metrics, and other analytics insiders saw.
One day after being taken to the online woodshed by the football-watching community, PFF offered up its side of the story:
Important reminderWhat the PFF grade measures is the part of the play the QB actually controls — the read, the decision, the throw. Not the result that lands in the box score. t.co/vqCi2eZLnB
— PFF (@PFF) September 15, 2026That statement reminds me of something someone told me about stand-up comedy: “If you have to explain the joke, then the joke wasn’t good.” To that end, I feel as if PFF needing to defend itself this way suggests the site needs to reevaluate things on its end. Not just because it graded Caleb Williams poorly, but because the methodology clearly needs a tweak.
PFF vs. Caleb Williams — Where’s the Beef?
In addition to the tweet above, Pro Football Focus writer Mark Chichester attempts to clear the air by peeling back the curtain with explanations on the grading scale and methodology. Chichester also attempts to explain what the grade isn’t saying. It’s a little “inside baseball” for my liking, but seeing how the sausage is made puts things in perspective, even if that perspective seems skewed.
More pertinent to our post, Chichester explains why Williams’ grades — 64.6 overall (17th/30 QBs), 64.0 passing grade (16th/30), and 64.8 rushing grade (11th/21) after an adjustment from the initial grades — ended up looking the way they did. Chichester highlights the difference between Williams’ 72.4 percent completion rate and 53.8 percent accurate throw rate, as well as a finish 6.8 percentage points below expectation in accuracy. It doesn’t fully explain why the grades were so low, but I do understand why some points were docked.
Caleb Williams throws against the Panthers at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn ImagesMore from Chichester, who has been put in the unenviable position to issue a damage control statement on the matter:
Williams made high-level plays, largely kept the ball out of harm’s way and helped lead one of the league’s most productive offenses. He also missed on roughly a quarter of his throws and had one particularly costly mistake that never appeared in the interception column. A 64.0 passing grade reflects that entire body of work, not simply the result.
The box score tells you what happened. The grade is designed to tell you how it happened. Most weeks, those two stories will look fairly similar. When they don’t, as was the case with Williams in Week 1, the play-by-play evaluation helps explain why.
WATCH: Caleb Williams Week 1 Highlights With NFL Films Music
On the one hand, I appreciate the transparency and insight. But on the other hand, I come away from this feeling like this is an explanation of a bad process. And I feel like everyone sees it except the author. I understand protecting the brand. But I also see criticism as an opportunity for some self-reflection and self-evaluation.
Instead, doubling down makes the explanation look like the football-writing equivalent of Chief Wiggum getting stuck in the hot dog roller, particularly the mention of Caleb Williams getting negative points for an interception that didn’t even count. I find that to be perplexing.
Caleb Williams throws while pressured by Panthers DT Derrick Brown (95) at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn ImagesOne last thing to keep in mind when dissecting the Pro Football Focus grades discussion. PFF was sold to an analytics firm back in March. Part of the post-sale fallout was that the site laid off employees. Trimming what was once a robust evaluation department could help explain why things aren’t what they used to be at the site. But it does not bridge the gap in explaining why other quarterback grades were closer to reality than Caleb Williams’ were.
In the end, we should remember that player grades are an imperfect science. Also, let’s keep in mind that subjective people are doing objective analysis, which will always throw a wrench into things. And while I’m not going to unsubscribe from PFF after this ordeal, this whole situation has me rethinking evaluation methods. I hope the folks at the site will do the same.
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