When the leaders of BRICS, the bloc of emerging economies, gather in New Delhi on Saturday for their 18th summit, they will have plenty to talk about. The group began with Brazil, Russia, India and China, then added South Africa in 2010. It has since expanded to include 11 countries.
The leaders and diplomats of BRICS member states are meeting in New Delhi to consider how their combined political and economic muscle might be used to build an alternative to the American-led global order. In some ways, President Donald Trump’s refusal to allow America play its traditional postwar leadership role has created new opportunities for the bloc. Yet its ambitions remain constrained by an inconvenient fact: India, China, Russia and Brazil do not align particularly well.
Here are the dynamics to watch this weekend. India, the host, wants the summit to accomplish as much as possible without antagonizing the United States. India continues to value the stability of its relationship with Washington, particularly as a counterbalance to China’s expanding influence in Asia and beyond. India, along with Brazil, has also resisted Russian and Chinese calls for a common BRICS currency and new lending to sanctions-hit Russia.
For its part, China is seeking to extend its global influence. For President Xi Jinping, this summit is another stage in an international roadshow that has included a leading role at this year’s Shanghai Cooperation Organization gathering in Kyrgyzstan, a visit to Egypt to help mediate the ongoing war in the Middle East and, later this month, a state visit to the White House.
In Delhi, Xi hopes to present China as a stable, predictable alternative to American influence. He will also seek to erode the dollar’s continuing dominance as the world’s principal reserve currency by promoting more channels for nondollar lending, the wider use of the renminbi to settle trade, and progress toward linking digital payment systems, an effort India has long resisted.
Given the sometimes violent border clashes between China and India in recent years, observers will also be watching Xi’s and Modi’s body language closely. Despite their differences on key agenda items, they are likely to be all smiles. Neither has an interest in airing grievances. India, as host, wants a smooth show. China, which will host next year’s summit, also wants a positive atmosphere. And Xi’s overriding goal is to present his country as a mature and constructive global leader.
Russia, of course, wants whatever diplomatic, political, and economic support it can get for its stalemated war with Ukraine. Brazil, meanwhile, hopes to forge new economic linkages and reaffirm its commitment to being a full BRICS partner, even as some fear that a Flavio Bolsonaro victory in next month’s presidential election could undermine the country’s commitment to the bloc.
The founders will not be the only delegations in attendance. Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, all new members, will be there, introducing fresh tensions into the agenda and some awkward photo calls. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the UAE’s leader Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, however, are expected to dispatch lesser officials in their place.
The central question is how the summit’s final communiqué will address the war. The recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit produced a final document that included implicit criticism of the United States and Israel. We will see whether the UAE delegation allows for similar language from Delhi.
Whatever emerges from the gathering, BRICS is unlikely to become an anti-American or anti-Western power bloc anytime soon. Its clout is already limited by the rivalry between China and India. The four founding members also have divergent interests whenever a conflict carries major consequences for energy markets: Russia and Brazil are major exporters who want higher energy prices while China and India, as major importers, prefer lower ones.
Equally important, the bloc now includes American treaty allies or longstanding partners, among them the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia. Their presence will impose another check on BRICS’s ambitions. All of them want to hedge against dependence on an increasingly unpredictable America. Most of them also want to preserve a stable relationship with the global superpower.
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