Ahead of Sunday’s Manchester derby at Old Trafford in the Premier League, we identify six elements that could be decisive.
Sunday’s Manchester derby will have a slightly different feel.
For the first time in over 10 years, Pep Guardiola won’t be in the Manchester City dugout for it, with this to be Enzo Maresca’s bow in the derby.
The Italian has enjoyed a decent start in charge, winning each of his first three Premier League games, but this will be his first major top-flight test, and against a Manchester United side already frustrated to be playing catch-up.
Here, we look at several facets that may decide the outcome of the contest.
City Give Up Chances
Having brushed off that rather chastening 3-0 Community Shield defeat to Arsenal, Manchester City have started the season well in terms of results, racking up three wins in the Premier League and beginning their Champions League campaign with a 2-0 success at Porto.
Beyond the results, though, City haven’t looked infallible.
United will take particular encouragement from City’s 1-0 win over Coventry last weekend.
City had plenty of joy in attack, sure, wasting several opportunities. But at the other end they were fortunate to not concede. Taiwo Awoniyi spurned a gift of chance early on; Jack Rudoni’s close-range header was saved by Gianluigi Donnarumma; Ellis Simms was denied by the keeper’s face late on.
Across their five games in all competitions this season, City have afforded their opponents 3+ ‘big chances’ (opportunities from which a team would ordinarily be expected to score) on three occasions, the exceptions being Bournemouth (1) and Porto (0).
But even against Porto, the Portuguese side may not have managed a single shot on target, but there were numerous moments when they worried City. The main issues for Porto were poor final passes and difficulty staying onside; they were caught offside seven times having only done so five times across their previous seven games in major European competition.
Given the upheaval City went through over the summer, it’s only natural that they have imperfections, but the signs suggest they will afford United – who, heading into the weekend, rank top for shots (68) and second for xG (7.3) in the Premier League this term – chances on Sunday.
United’s Latest Nemesis
Kobbie Mainoo, on the other hand, was the only outfield player in the England squad not to play a single minute in North America, a fact that mystified United fans who adore him.
But Mainoo has enjoyed an excellent start to the new domestic season. Previously, some had doubts about his physical capacity and defensive awareness, but he seems to have made strides under Carrick and taken his game to another level.
He’s harder to knock off the ball, tougher in duels, and just seems to be everywhere in United’s midfield.
His 68.2% success rate in duels is the sixth best among midfielders to play more than 90 minutes this season, while his 10.1 possession regains per 90 puts him second among the same group. He remains dependable as ever on the ball, too, ranking 6/28 for pass completion rate under pressure (90.3%) among defensive/central midfielders to tally at least 50 such passes.
Mainoo then controlled proceedings against Sabah in the Champions League on Thursday, having the most touches (93), passes (83) and accurate passes (81) despite coming off after 64 minutes.
Of course, Anderson is a quality player in his own right and did little wrong during the World Cup. He’s also enjoyed a seamless start to life at City, quickly taking over command of their midfield from the departed Rodri.
He’s combative, an excellent passer and a confident carrier. For instance, among midfielders to play more than 90 minutes this term, he ranks seventh for tackle attempts per 90 (3.1) and top for passes per 90 (121.4), progressive carries per 90 (19.5) and line-breaking passes (76).
For Anderson, Sunday will be his first blockbuster Premier League game at City, a chance to position himself as the top flight’s leading midfielder. Whereas Mainoo, who’s remained quiet about any possible World Cup frustration, has the opportunity to let his feet do the talking against a direct positional rival.
It ought to make for compelling viewing.
Bruno Fernandes or Rayan Cherki: Who Will Be Most Influential?
If the Mainoo v Anderson duel could determine which side has the ascendancy in midfield, the outcome of the match may be swung by whomever of Youri Tielemans now in tow and Mainoo beginning the season excellently.
The flip side to that is he’s averaging 5.0 shots per 90 in the league, up from 2.5 in 2025-26; it’s early days of course, but potentially a sign of things to come with him being more of a goal threat. After all, he has already scored four times in all competitions.
Admittedly, his only Premier League goal involvements this season came against Ipswich, when he scored a hat-trick and got an assist, but we all know Fernandes can hurt any opposition.
Can City Nullify United’s Threat in Behind?
If there’s one particular aspect of United’s makeup that City will be conscious of, it’s the threat they pose in behind.
Whether United start Marcus Rashford out wide, their attack will be stacked with players who can pose a danger with runs in behind the defence.
That may be even more pertinent against a City side who can leave space behind their defence. On average, they begin their passing sequences 44.2 metres from their own goal – only two teams start higher than that – and they’re the team who’ve spent the smallest proportion of time in a low block this term (9%).
United, on the other hand, are second only to Brighton (156) for runs in behind (142). As a proportion of all in-possession runs, United rank top in the Premier League (33.0%).
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