Before he travelled stateside, Seiya Suzuki was one of the best hitters in Nippon Professional Baseball. Maybe the best. Across his final three NPB seasons, he led the league with a 1.015 OPS. No one reached base or crossed the plate more often than the Hiroshima Carp superstar. Even so, as the 2021-22 offseason began, most estimations of the outfielder’s earning power were modest. Ben Clemens of FanGraphs predicted a four-year, $40MM contract. Kiley McDaniel of ESPN guessed $48MM over four years. MLBTR projected a five-year, $55MM guarantee.
Nobody was unaware of what Suzuki had accomplished in Japan. But MLB and NPB are different leagues. There’s always going to be some trepidation surrounding players without MLB experience. At the time, Kosuke Fukudome’s four-year, $48MM contract from 2007 was still the high-water mark for a Japanese position player coming to North America. There was also the posting fee to consider. A $55MM contract projection was, essentially, a $65.125MM projection, even if that extra cash would go to the Carp instead of Suzuki himself.
The Cubs, it turns out, weren’t feeling trepidatious. At least nine other teams were linked to Suzuki, and the North Siders did what they had to do to take those other clubs out of the running. Their five-year, $85MM offer blew every prediction I could find out of the water. Add in the $14.625MM posting fee, and Chicago spent just under $100MM to sign the perennial NPB All-Star. He set a new precedent for Japanese hitters on the MLB free agent market. He also set expectations for himself awfully high. For some, that pressure might have been a problem. Not for Suzuki.
That five-year contract will expire this fall. There is no question the Cubs got their money’s worth. The righty batter has been one of the most consistently productive hitters in the league. In fact, only three hitters (min. 400 PA per season) have produced a higher wRC+ than Suzuki in every one of the last five years: Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and Bryce Harper. Altogether, Suzuki’s well-rounded skill set at the plate has produced an .824 OPS and 128 wRC+ in 2,834 career PA. Since 2022, only nine players have taken more trips to the plate and outperformed Suzuki in both metrics. Each one of them is a multi-time All-Star and a Silver Slugger winner. Suzuki has never been an MLB All-Star. He’s never won a major MLB award. Yet, he sits in the company of the most dependable run-producers in the league.
In less than two months, Suzuki will officially reach free agency. He’ll be coming off his very best MLB season. He will certainly command a higher salary than we thought he would five years ago. My question is whether he could command more than he actually signed for in 2022. Suzuki has added five MLB seasons to his resume. He’s also five years older. He silenced every doubt about how his bat would hold up against MLB pitching, just in time to face a new concern: How will his bat hold up against the aging curve?
Let’s break out the MLBTR Contract Tracker. In the last five years, only seven hitters have signed a free agent contract or extension worth at least $85MM starting in their age-32 (or older) season: Freddie Freeman, Manny Machado, Jose Altuve, Matt Chapman, Kyle Schwarber, Alex Bregman, and José Ramírez. You’re looking at a short list of big names. That doesn’t bode well for Suzuki. Recent history suggests it takes a certain level of fame to command $85MM with your mid-thirties on the horizon.
But what happens when there aren’t any big names for teams to spend on? The last time Suzuki was seeking a contract, the top free agent bats were Freeman, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Kris Bryant, and Marcus Semien. There isn’t anyone with that kind of star power in this winter’s position player class. Suzuki is one of this year’s headliners, alongside Jazz Chisholm Jr., Randy Arozarena, and Luis Arraez.
When MLBTR put out a 2026-27 free agent power rankings update in June, Suzuki was only an honorable mention. He didn’t make the top 10, or even the next five. However, I think bad timing had a lot to do with that. When those rankings were published, Suzuki was just shaking off one of the worst slumps of his career. Since then, he has been one of the most productive players in the game.
Dating back to June 1, the righty slugger owns a .908 OPS, a 152 wRC+, and 3.4 FanGraphs WAR. No impending free agent ranks ahead of him in any of those statistics. Suzuki has now raised his offensive numbers to a level near or above his career averages in most categories, while maintaining surprisingly strong defensive metrics. His 12 DRS and 7 FRV both put him among the top five corner outfielders in the majors. Accordingly, his 4.7 bWAR and 4.0 fWAR for the season are already career-high figures. His bWAR ranks first among soon-to-be free agent hitters. His fWAR is fourth, trailing Arozarena, Arraez, and Brandon Lowe by a couple tenths of a win.
Perhaps you’d rank any or all of Chisholm, Arozarena, Arraez, or Lowe ahead of Suzuki. That’s more than reasonable. Still, a team that believes Suzuki’s improved defense is sustainable might very well consider him the top free agent position player – especially if that team needs power from the right-hand side. If nothing else, Suzuki and Arozarena have established themselves as the top tier of outfielders, while Ian Happ, Daulton Varsho, Trent Grisham, and Taylor Ward have seen their stock drop. It helps Suzuki’s case that all of those other outfielders will also be 30 or older in 2027.
There is no precedent for non-superstars signing $85MM contracts at 32 years old. Yet, I can remember a time when there was no precedent for NPB hitters signing $85MM contracts either. History can only predict so much. This winter’s free agent class is weaker than any other in recent memory. Prices rise when demand exceeds supply. A team that wants an impact bat and has the cash to spend might be more than happy to set a new precedent to secure one of the best and most consistent hitters available.
Five years ago, Suzuki was too green. Now, he might be too gray. He will be free from the posting system this offseason… only to be held back by a qualifying offer instead. He’ll also (most likely) have to deal with another lockout. The last one didn’t hurt him, but it’s anyone’s guess how the upcoming CBA negotiations will unfold. He’ll be one of the top hitters on the market, but the market might not be open for very long.
All of this has left me wondering what kind of contract Suzuki will sign. When I started writing this post, I didn’t have a poll in mind, but now I need to know where MLBTR readers stand. Will Seiya Suzuki beat the $85MM he earned in 2022? Cast your vote, and then share your thoughts in the comments below.
How much guaranteed money will Seiya Suzuki sign for this winter?
$85MM or less More than $85MM Vote Vote to see results More than $85MM 100% (4) $85MM or less 0% (0)Total votes: 4
Thank you for voting!
Images courtesy of Patrick Gorski and Rick Scuteri (via Reuters Connect).
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