Ukraine’s drones can shut down Russian airspace – and force Putin to the table ...Middle East

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Ukraine’s drones can shut down Russian airspace – and force Putin to the table

Last week, President Volodymyr Zelensky issued an extraordinary warning. Russian airspace is about to become so saturated with Ukrainian drones that it will be “completely unsafe” for civil aviation, he said, urging airlines to suspend services. The declaration of a de facto no-fly zone was couched in a goodwill gesture of letting everyone know in advance.

Zelensky framed the statement as a response to the increased tempo of Russian attacks targeting Kyiv in recent weeks. These attacks are dominated by the jet-powered Geran-4 drone that is fired constantly in small batches, disrupting daily life and business, and leaving residents nervous and exhausted. The drones pose a major dilemma to Ukraine’s air defences. Only high-value portable MANPADs, air-to-air missiles, and surface-to-air systems are capable of dealing with them.

    Zelensky’s intervention was influenced by the Ukrainian public’s expectation of a swift and effective response. As with the ballistic missile threat from the Bryansk region of Russia, defensive action is not enough. A pro-active response is required.

    The warning to pilots and airlines marked an effort to maintain Ukraine’s moral high ground over Russia, signalling that it is exercising self-defence in a way that is mindful of civilians and the laws of war – and need not jeopardise support from European countries. Zelensky stopped short of adopting the more reckless plans of former defence ministry chief Mykhailo Fedorov, who proposed swarming Moscow airports with AI-powered drones.

    There is little doubt that Ukraine has the ability to paralyse air traffic in Moscow, which would go a long way to fulfilling Zelensky’s plan to effectively close Russia’s skies. The president has avoided empty threats during this war and there is little reason to believe he is starting now.

    Ukraine launches an average of 300 drones into Russia each day, according to official statistics, and Zelensky plans to increase this to 1,000. The figure is realistic with consistent European funding as it is straightforward to scale up production and the weaponry is combat-proven.

    The existing tempo has forced 3,626 temporary closures of Russian airports this year, according to data from the Osprey Flight Solutions aviation risk management group. Over the whole of 2025, the figure was only 1,923.

    The Ukrainian military has focused attacks on Moscow, which has forced suspensions at three of the country’s busiest airports. In 2024, more than 75 million passengers used the three major Moscow airports – Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo and Domodedovo – accounting for more than one third of all Russian air passengers that year.

    Smoke rises after a drone strike on an oil refinery in Moscow on 18 June (Photo: Social media/Reuters)

    Ukraine is also finding indirect ways to close Russia’s skies. Since May, there have been at least eight major drone attacks on Moscow. The targets included a refinery that supplies kerosene to the capital’s airports.

    Zelensky’s warning is already having an effect, forcing Moscow airports to suspend and cancel flights. Sheremetyevo airport cancelled 21 flights and suspended 235, while Vnukovo cancelled 22 flights and suspended 94. Airlines such as Turkey’s Pegasus cancelled their services to Moscow.

    Airport function is crucial for Russia, the largest country in the world, with its vast distances and far-flung territories. Air transport knits the country together and allows it to function. Interruptions bring problems with governance given its centralised nature and constant interventions from Moscow in other parts of the country.

    Air travel is also key to sanctions evasion. Specific deals often require journeys to Turkey, the Middle East, and countries across Asia.

    The loss of flights would also add to the campaign of bringing the war home to Russian citizens, following attacks on fuel infrastructure and retail hubs, that make it more politically costly for the Kremlin. Wealthy Russians would find it more difficult to travel for holidays.

    Ukrainian rescuers work at the site of a Russian strike in Kyiv in August (Photo: Tetiana Dzhafarova/Getty)

    Zelensky’s plan will also force the Kremlin to make difficult decisions over air defence. Attempts to keep the skies inside Russia clear could divert assets from forces inside Ukraine, while attempts to protect Moscow could leave other parts of the country vulnerable. This could create more openings for Ukraine to undermine Russia’s war economy through attacks against oil refineries, exports, and military-industrial complex.

    Even if it succeeds, a no fly zone over Russia would not bring the war to a favourable conclusion on its own. But combined with work in other arenas, such as resistance at the front, and economic pressure through sanctions, a sustained campaign against Russian air traffic would aggravate friction between the state and society.

    Ukraine’s goal is more modest than victory – to force Russia to end its war without major concessions. Zelensky’s plan fits into that goal. At minimum, closing Russia’s skies could provide sufficient leverage to force Moscow into a limited ceasefire of air attacks of the kind that have scarred daily life in Kyiv. On the eve of another harsh winter, that would be cause for celebration for many Ukrainians.

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