The first mail-in ballots in the country should start going out at the end of this week. It’s entirely possible that the Trump Administration’s fight over them won’t be settled for several more weeks—possibly right up to Election Day on November 3 or beyond.
The uncertainty is leaving campaign hands from both parties exasperated as they debate what to tell voters. Even the possibility that some mail-in ballots may be ignored poses very practical questions for campaigns planning out millions of dollars in spending to boost turnout. Should voters still trust mail-in ballots will still be counted? Should they instead vote early in person if they can? Should they hold their votes until Election Day itself, just to be sure?
“We’re all flying blind,” says one Democratic campaign consultant.
“That’s the 8 million-vote question,” responds a Republican consultant when asked about how their party is adapting to the legal limbo.
For over a year, President Donald Trump has been laying the groundwork for the U.S. Postal Service to take on a new role in deciding which mail-in ballots get to be counted, working off lists of citizens created by the Department of Homeland Security. It’s a process that experts predict would likely lead to the disenfranchisement of many legitimate voters. Most of them, it’s worth saying, are Democrats.
Last week, the Supreme Court issued an emergency order that amounted to a procedural and preliminary win for Trump’s plan, but other courts have stepped in to block it on merits. The result is growing confusion over how, exactly, the votes might—or might not—be counted come November.
Some election experts insist that things are not as urgent as either side would have you believe. “I’m annoyed, but not freaked out,” says Michael Waldman, president and CEO of the Brennan Center for Justice, a nonpartisan think tank. “The court’s ruling was a procedural one, with a great deal of legal back and forth to come. The executive order is still illegal and still unconstitutional.”
“For voters, so far, nothing has changed—and is unlikely to before Election Day,” he adds.
That doesn’t mean this isn’t a problem for campaigns at the nuts-and-bolts level. Significant resources often go into encouraging voters to request a mail ballot, and then reminding them to fill it out and return it. Should campaigns maintain their plans for that outreach, or redirect that money to get-out-the-vote efforts at early-voting sites and on Election Day? There’s no settled answer at this point, leaving a messaging mess for campaigns on the ground.
Democratic campaigns, in particular, are wondering if focusing as much on banking votes via mailed ballots is too much of a risk this cycle. Even if the Supreme Court ultimately strikes down Trump’s plan, anxiety over some other election-eve upset targeting mail ballots could deter voters from bothering to put their ballot in the mailbox. Perhaps putting more resources into in-person, on-site voting would make more sense? “This is not an easy conversation,” a long-time Democratic campaign adviser says. “We are all operating on assumptions.”
Republican campaigns separately risk running afoul of Trump if they push mail ballots too hard. In practice, GOP party strategists in Washington are advising campaigns to run their races locally and tune out the Washington noise. “Why would we not go after every vote on every day we can?” asks a second GOP operative.
How many voters cast ballots by mail?
Mail-in voting rules vary by state, but their use overall has been growing. In 2024, 29% of votes were cast by mail, accounting for tens of millions of ballots. Democrats vote by mail more than Republicans, but, depending on the analysis, as many as a quarter of Republicans voted by mail in 2024.
At the center of all this, naturally, is Trump, who has for years advanced debunked conspiracy theories that U.S. elections are rife with fraud from votes by foreign nationals, immigrants who don’t have the proper documentation, and dead people. It’s part of why he keeps insisting he won the 2020 election, which he lost to Joe Biden.
In 2024, GOP advisers convinced Trump that dissuading his voters from using the mail-in option was self-sabotaging. This year, he’s swung back in the other direction, railing against mail ballots despite casting his own ballot that way for the Florida Republican primary.
The outlook around mail ballots is likely to remain muddled for at least a little while longer. But campaign managers don’t have that kind of time to settle on their plans for banking the most votes before Election Day. The first mail-in ballots are due to be ready for North Carolina voters this Friday.
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