By Meteorologists Briana Waxman and Chris Dolce
(CNN) — A tropical storm or depression is likely to form over the northern Gulf on Monday and then quickly push inland into parts of Texas and Louisiana with flooding rainfall.
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Heavy rain and thunderstorms located about 100 miles south of the Louisiana coast could organize enough to become a tropical depression or storm. That could happen as soon as Monday morning when the Hurricane Hunters fly into the system.
The next Atlantic storm name is Edouard (eh-DWARD).
This system will be short-lived since it’s expected to slide inland near the Texas-Louisiana border by Monday night or Tuesday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Tropical storm watches or warnings could be issued later Monday for parts of both states’ coastlines.
Heavy rainfall is the biggest impact from this system regardless of what it’s called.
A Level 2 of 4 risk of flooding rainfall has been issued in southeast Texas, including Houston, for both Tuesday and Wednesday. The threat level could be raised in future updates.
Storm rainfall totals could reach 6 inches in limited spots because of rainfall rates as high as 2 to 4 inches per hour. That’s more than enough to cause flash flooding, especially on roads.
Tropical storm-force wind gusts capable of causing spotty power outages are also possible along the coast from the potential storm’s most intense bands of rain.
El Niño is bossing hurricane season
Another short-lived storm would fit with what the 2026 Atlantic season has delivered so far due to a strengthening and potentially record-breaking El Niño.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season’s activity is running just 11% of average as of August 30, according to one measure.
The most recent storm, Dolly, fell apart in the open Atlantic on August 28 after lasting just 24 hours. Cristobal disintegrated just as quickly in the northern Atlantic on August 13. The other two storms, Arthur and Bertha, had brief shelf lives in the Gulf in June and July, respectively.
The leftover showers and thunderstorms from former Tropical Storm Dolly are still tracking west toward the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas, but their chance to redevelop into another tropical depression or storm is low.
The Atlantic season’s first hurricane is nearly three weeks late compared to the average. It’s the longest the Atlantic has gone without a hurricane since 2022, when Danielle formed on September 2.
The Atlantic’s latest first hurricane happened on September 11, according to satellite-assisted records dating to 1966. Hurricanes Gustav in 2002 and Humberto in 2013 hold a tie for that record.
September is the typical peak of Atlantic hurricane season thanks to a combination of more favorable weather ingredients.
The most basic building block is warmer water temperatures, which peak in September after basking in summer’s heat, and provide fuel for storms to form and strengthen.
Lower wind shear, aka tropical-system kryptonite, is the other big ingredient. Wind shear involves changes in wind speed and direction at different levels of the atmosphere, and it can rip apart anything from budding tropical systems to fully developed hurricanes.
But this year’s El Niño has made wind shear unusually strong and widespread in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. That has stifled storm chances and ripped apart storms like Dolly.
It’s also the main reason forecasters have called for a muted season overall.
But that’s no reason to ignore the rest of hurricane season completely. Storms can still find windows of opportunity to form and become a threat, even in an overall subdued season.
The-CNN-Wire™ & © 2026 Cable News Network, Inc., a Warner Bros. Discovery Company. All rights reserved.
Meteorologist Tyler Ory contributed to this report.
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