Washington’s new Iran sanctions reveal more than America would like ...News

After an inconclusive military campaign, Washington is leaning on the dollar because coercion now costs less than another failed air war

The US has announced Operation Economic Outcast, which it calls “an unprecedented, whole-of-government, economic campaign against the Islamic Republic of Iran” and compares to D-Day in its effort to end “the Iranian threat.”

The US Treasury has expanded the scope of potential secondary sanctions across five areas of the Iranian economy, including digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping. At the same time, the Office of Foreign Assets Control has added nearly 60 companies, individuals, and vessels to its sanctions lists over alleged links to Iranian oil revenue, procurement for missile and nuclear programs, cyberoperations, and the activities of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Five tankers have been designated as blocked property, while several licenses covering certain remittances and educational and cultural exchanges have been suspended.

Despite the forceful rhetoric accompanying the announcement, Washington has not imposed a comprehensive ban on all trade with Iran. The new sectoral determinations do not mean that every foreign company conducting a transaction with an Iranian counterpart will automatically be sanctioned. Rather, they provide the US administration with legal grounds for future enforcement, while specific penalties will continue to be imposed selectively. Washington is building a mechanism for more sustained pressure and preparing to direct that mechanism increasingly against Tehran’s foreign partners.

At the same time, the State Department’s Rewards for Justice program has renewed attention to its offer of up to $10 million dollars for information on senior IRGC leaders and associated members of the Iranian establishment, including Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. The reward was first announced in March 2026 and has now become part of a revived psychological and intelligence campaign against Iran’s leadership and security apparatus.

An economic offensive after an inconclusive military one

The turn towards economic warfare comes after nearly six months of fighting. American and Israeli strikes inflicted substantial damage on Iran, destroyed parts of its military infrastructure and weakened elements of its regional network, but they failed to force Tehran to surrender or change its policies. Iran has retained missile and drone capabilities, the ability to threaten installations across the Gulf, and, most importantly, considerable influence over maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

The military campaign has imposed a heavy cost on the US. According to the Pentagon, direct expenditure had reached at least $37.5 billion dollars by July. Sources and estimates by American analysts suggest that the US expended around 65% of its Patriot interceptor stockpile during the first five months of the war, while the number of available THAAD interceptors fell by at least 38% and the use of Tomahawk cruise missiles approached half of the national inventory. Domestic support for the war, meanwhile, remained low at approximately 35%.

With this in mind, the economic offensive doesn’t look like a demonstration of Washington’s confidence anymore – rather, it is an acknowledgement that further military action is getting unsustainable. The US needs time to rebuild its weapons stocks, reduce domestic political costs, and find an instrument capable of sustaining pressure without another expensive air campaign. Sanctions offer such an instrument because much of their immediate burden falls on foreign companies and the Iranian population, while Washington retains the ability to raise or lower the pressure at will.

Iran understands this as well. If Tehran concludes that a prolonged pause will allow the US to close its commercial and financial channels one by one, the Iranian leadership may attempt to deny Washington the time it needs through limited military escalation, renewed pressure on shipping or further strikes against regional infrastructure. Such a decision would carry enormous risks because it could once again unite the Gulf states against Iran, yet retaining control over the tempo of the crisis remains one of Tehran’s most important advantages.

China limits American pressure

Many Iranian organizations are already isolated by previous rounds of sanctions, and the new operation’s threat is directed mostly at Iran’s foreign partners. Companies and banks involved in the five designated sectors could face the freezing of assets under US jurisdiction, prohibitions on transactions with American citizens and entities, restrictions on correspondent accounts, and effective exclusion from the dollar clearing system. For an international bank, that threat can be more dangerous than a direct fine because losing access to dollar infrastructure could paralyze a substantial share of its global business.

China, however, throws a wrench into the American model. In 2025, Chinese buyers imported an average of around 1.38 million barrels of Iranian oil per day, accounting for more than 80% of Iran’s seaborne oil exports. The trade has been sustained through independent refineries with limited exposure to the US, intermediaries, yuan settlements, and schemes that obscure the origin of individual cargoes. By August 2026, deliveries had fallen to approximately 534,000 barrels per day from 1.57 million in February, although this decline resulted more from the war and naval blockade than from Beijing’s voluntary compliance with American sanctions.

Washington has already sanctioned individual Chinese technology suppliers and smaller refiners, but the new package does not target China’s largest banks. Sanctioning them could disrupt US-China negotiations, provoke retaliation, interfere with supplies of critical goods, and accelerate the movement of bilateral trade into payment systems beyond the dollar. The answer to the question of secondary sanctions against China is deeply contradictory. The US threatens Beijing with consequences, but it remains reluctant to adopt measures capable of inflicting comparable damage on the American economy itself.

Iran’s other partners do not form a united front. The United Arab Emirates, which accounted for roughly 30 percent of Iranian imports worth about $21 billion in 2024, has already suspended financial and commercial dealings with Tehran. Türkiye, however, whose annual trade with Iran amounts to around $5 to $6 billion, has given no indication that it intends to sever economic relations, particularly since Iran provides approximately 13% of Türkiye’s gas imports. Trade between Iran and Iraq exceeded $10 billion in 2025, while Baghdad pays Tehran an estimated $4 to $5 billion annually for natural gas used in electricity generation. Abandoning these supplies quickly would risk serious domestic disruption.

Pakistan and Oman are also important. Informal trade between Iran and Pakistan is estimated at approximately $4 billion, while the two governments have set a target of $10 billion. Trade with Oman reached around $1.5 billion in 2025. India has reduced its turnover with Iran to $1.63 billion, although most of that trade consists of food and other goods that New Delhi considers humanitarian. These countries may reduce overt operations and their banks will become more cautious, but they are unlikely to abandon commerce that supports energy security, supplies border regions, and preserves strategically important transport links.

Iran is redrawing its trade map

Iran began preparing for prolonged isolation long before the current war, building its response around a gradual dispersal of trade and logistics. In the oil sector, the Goreh-Jask pipeline is particularly important because it carries crude to the Gulf of Oman and permits exports without passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Its designed capacity is 1 million barrels per day, although its effective capacity is estimated at closer to 300,000 barrels and actual shipments through Jask remained far lower before the war. The route cannot yet replace the terminals of the Persian Gulf, but it can preserve a portion of Iranian exports during a blockade.

The port of Chabahar provides access to the Arabian Sea for non-oil trade, while overland crossings connect Iran with Iraq, Türkiye, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. After the crisis began, Pakistan opened six designated road routes linking its cities of Karachi and Gwadar, as well as Port Qasim, with the Iranian border crossings at Gabd and Taftan. Gas pipelines to Türkiye and Iraq allow part of Iran’s energy exports to continue without tankers, while border trade, barter, and settlements in national currencies reduce dependence on major international banks.

Maritime exports are simultaneously moving deeper into the grey economy. The methods include ship-to-ship transfers, the disabling of automatic identification systems, repeated changes of flags and ownership, the relabeling of crude oil, and long chains of intermediary companies. Digital assets and gold cannot support the entire foreign trade of a large country, but they can be used for individual payments, component procurement, and the preservation of reserves. The new sanctions will increase the cost of every such operation, but they are unlikely to eliminate a system that has been developing for decades.

When economic coercion undermines its own foundation

America’s capacity to impose secondary sanctions rests on the central role of the dollar in global trade. According to the International Monetary Fund, the dollar accounted for 57.13% of disclosed global foreign exchange reserves in the first quarter of 2026. Neither the yuan, the euro nor the existing BRICS platforms currently provide a comparable combination of liquidity, legal infrastructure and financial market depth.

Yet the dominance of a currency is not invulnerable, especially when access to it is increasingly used as an instrument of coercion. Every new threat against a foreign bank, tariff imposed on a trading partner, or attempt to force a third country to abandon an economically necessary contract increases the value of alternative mechanisms. Settlements in national currencies, central bank digital currencies, gold, regional clearing arrangements, and projects such as BRICS Pay remain fragmented, but sanctions are giving them both a political purpose and growing commercial demand.

The paradox of American strategy is that the more effectively Washington uses the power of the dollar, the more urgently other states search for protection from it. If secondary sanctions are extended to major Chinese, Turkish, Iraqi, or Indian institutions, Iran will not be the only country to bear the cost. Supply chains will be disrupted, energy and shipping prices will rise, global trade will become increasingly fragmented, and non-Western governments will acquire another powerful reason to support financial infrastructure that does not depend on decisions made in Washington.

The resilience of Iranian society, shaped by the war with Iraq, more than four decades of sanctions, repeated currency crises, and the constant threat of external pressure, should not be discounted either. Iranians have learned to adapt economic life to inflation, shortages, and instability, while the state has developed mechanisms for allocating scarce resources, using informal markets, and transferring much of the burden onto the private sector.

This does not mean that the new sanctions will be painless. They may accelerate inflation, reduce employment, restrict access to technology, and deepen public discontent. Yet declining living standards will not automatically lead to political revolt. External pressure often strengthens the authorities’ narrative, allows them to attribute the crisis to a foreign enemy, and increases the population’s dependence on state-controlled systems of distribution.

Even if implemented with maximum severity, Operation Economic Outcast is unlikely to weaken Iran rapidly or provoke an immediate mass uprising against its leadership. A prolonged struggle is far more probable, with Washington raising the cost of Tehran’s foreign relations while Iran expands alternative routes, exerts pressure in the Strait of Hormuz, and encourages its partners to adopt new settlement mechanisms.

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