In person, Andy Burnham appears jovial and unassuming. But in terms of foreign policy, he is starting to look tough and decisive.
He spent this week offering Ukraine classified technical information for long-range missiles, triggering sabre-rattling about retaliation from the Kremlin. There are reports that he is now about to announce sanctions on Israeli settlements. These are hints of a newly confident approach to international affairs.
The key issue in the Israeli agenda is the settlement programme close to East Jerusalem, known as E1. In terms of territory, it is relatively modest, covering just three per cent of the occupied West Bank, but its ramifications are profound. The land connects Jerusalem to the Israeli settlement of Maale Adumim and makes a future Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem impossible.
It is a deeply cynical project. A Palestinian state is anyway difficult to imagine, because of the separation between Gaza and the West Bank. E1 goes further and effectively separates the West Bank from itself.
The project has been condemned by almost everyone. It is hard to think of a more broadly and consistently criticised policy in modern international relations. The plans have been condemned by Austria, Australia, Canada, Egypt, the European Commission, France, Germany, Greece, Indonesia, Italy, Jordan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, among others. Even Donald Trump gets nervous when he sees Israel’s intentions in the West Bank.
Last week, the Israeli Housing Ministry invited bids for the construction of more than 1,200 housing units in E1. They are now undertaking the next stage of the plan – its practical realisation. As Israeli finance minister Bezalel Smotrich said when Israel gave final approval to the plans last year: “The Palestinian state is being erased from the table, not with slogans, but with actions.”
This is a damnable state of affairs and one that requires a robust response, but Labour’s approach towards Israel over the last few years has been hopelessly muddled. This is because of its neurosis over the Antisemitism which was allowed to take root in the party under Jeremy Corbyn. Sir Keir Starmer took decisive action on that, but memory of the Corbyn years made him hesitant to challenge Israel’s actions.
During the opening weeks of the Israeli operation against Gaza in 2023, following the Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October, Starmer said a number of things which betrayed his moral judgement. At its nadir, he became so confused that he suggested Israel had the right to cut off water to Gaza.
This specific intervention lost Labour countless voters on its left flank, who were aghast at the ethical quagmire the Labour leader found himself in. Later, Starmer became much tougher on Israel – he formally recognised the state of Palestine, suspended 29 arms export licences and placed sanctions on Israeli ministers, including Smotrich. But the damage was done. The impression that Starmer had lost moral credibility on the Israel question was firmly established.
Burnham evidently does not intend to make the same mistake. He said shortly before becoming prime minister: “I know that many people feel that at the start of Israel’s military action in Gaza, my party didn’t get it right, and I am sorry about that.” When the bidding process for E1 began last week, Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband spoke with resolution and clarity, branding it an “unacceptable and destructive act” which would “cut across the heart of Palestine”.
He promised a “comprehensive set of measures to respond to Israeli government policies”. Early reports suggest that this will involve sanctions on key individuals and a trade ban on Israeli settlements. As soon as those rumours emerged, critics found all sorts of reasons for why it would be a terrible idea. Some warned that it would be hard to distinguish between goods from settlements and those from Israel.
Others warned that it was a trap set by the Israeli far-right. Labour Friends of Israel, which opposes Israeli settlements, warned Burnham that the bidding process has been timed to coincide with the Israeli elections in late October, as part of a cynical electoral strategy. “There is a real risk,” the group said, “that untargeted action feeds the ‘siege mentality’ of the Israeli right and is thus politically damaging to Israel’s opposition”.
Every one of these concerns is valid. But they all fail the greater test of moral responsibility: When will the world take action against this egregious law-breaking from a state that has at this point gone almost completely rogue? When will the world step in to make sure that a Palestinian state remains even technically possible, let alone politically feasible?
The far-right in Israel will certainly use European outrage to encourage its own voters. But the world’s reaction cannot be silenced by the game-playing of extremists in Jerusalem.
These are the key moments that give us a glimpse into what Burnham will be like on the world stage. No one is under the impression that he is particularly obsessed with international relations. Quite the opposite – you get the sense that every trip overseas takes him away from what he really cares about, which is bus passes and energy bills.
But every prime minister is forced to spend a great deal of their time at summits or dealing with international crises, and these events are anyway deeply connected to their domestic agenda, as this morning’s rise in energy prices as a result of the Iran war demonstrates.
It’s too early yet to form a firm conclusion, but the early data points suggest a robust mindset underneath that friendly exterior. Burnham has none of the neurosis of Starmer on Israel and his Government’s early statements have been strikingly severe, with none of the usual diplomatic euphemisms. If he follows it up with sanctions and trade bans, he’ll show that he is committed to deeds as well as words.
We must hope he is. The Israeli Government is working to eradicate any hope of a two-state solution. That act cannot go unanswered.
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