From the possibility of a super El Niño to the latest outlook from the National Weather Service to the Farmer’s Almanac predictions for winter, there are a lot of thoughts about what’s coming for the Chicago area.
So what should you expect?
Here’s a look at the predictions that have been released so far for the Chicago area:
Farmer’s Almanac
The Farmer’s Almanac has already released its projections for the upcoming winter season.
The publication, which has issued projections since its founding in the 1800s, said the Chicago area and the broader Great Lakes region will likely see temperatures around normal for most of winter. The Farmer’s Almanac said the region could see “cold, snowy periods,” and it has predicted both frequent clipper systems and sudden cold snaps.
The publication said its outlooks are based on a “combination of sunspot cycles, lunar position, tidal pull, and historical pattern weighting” to make predictions. However, the almanac does not disclose its exact methodology.
The accuracy of the predictions is up for debate, with most forecasters warning against such far out predictions.
Climate Prediction Center
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center showed in its outlook for November through January that the Chicago area is expected to see above-average temperatures with equal chances for above or below-average precipitation.
That forecast aligns with predictions for a super El Niño forecast for the winter months.
Super El Niño
A strengthening El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean could play a major role in shaping winter weather across the Chicago area.
The latest outlook from the Climate Prediction Center showed a “greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.”
“During the October-December 2026 season, there is a 69% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950,” the prediction stated.
El Niño patterns don’t always have the same effects on weather in the Midwest, but according to the University of Illinois, they have historically been linked to warmer and drier winters.
That could mean above-average temperatures and less snowfall than normal, especially if the pattern persists into the spring months.
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