Trump is making Netanyahu pay for his defiance ...Middle East

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Trump is making Netanyahu pay for his defiance

Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has a “Trump problem”. As he kicks off his campaign ahead of the general election in October, he cannot secure an endorsement from the man he calls “our greatest friend in the White House”.

Donald Trump seems to be enjoying the chance to oversee an Apprentice-style contest to help pick Israel’s next prime minister. He is teasing Netanyahu, much as he seems to relish teasing his Vice President, JD Vance, and Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, over who should get the Republican presidential nod in 2028. But underneath the teasing there is real tension.

    This week, Trump told Fox News that it was “most appropriate for me to stay out of Israeli elections, but I may endorse somebody” – pointedly not mentioning Netanyahu.

    It masks an even greater problem, one for the whole of the country. Israel’s conduct in Gaza risks fracturing its relationship with the US, the ultimate guarantor of Israeli security. A short-lived tactical victory could become long-term strategic defeat.

    Tensions were already high over Israel’s role in dragging the US into a war with Iran. Now they are growing over Israel’s resistance to ending the conflict in Gaza. Trump wants a win he can show to voters back home before the midterm elections, and Netanyahu is getting in his way.

    According to Axios, Trump has said that “Bibi is his own worst enemy”. That came from Barak Ravid, who has an enviable record of relaying the exact words Trump uses in the Oval Office.

    Perhaps Trump called Ravid, as he likes to call favoured reporters, or perhaps Ravid talked to others “in the room”. He quotes two senior US officials as saying that Trump actually likes Netanyahu but is increasingly frustrated by him. Either way, as Ravid puts it: “More and more daylight has opened between them over the last three months, not just on Iran, but on Lebanon and Gaza as well.”

    Trump’s core belief about himself is that he is a master dealmaker. In Gaza, Trump thinks he has negotiated a historic deal – one that will end generations of conflict and see a golden statue of America’s 47th President erected in Gaza City. Netanyahu is standing in the way of that deal.

    Earlier this month, Netanyahu rejected Trump’s 15-point Gaza peace plan. The Israel Defence Forces would not pull back until Hamas was truly disarmed, he said, adding: “When I say disarming Hamas, I mean the heavy weapons, the less heavy weapons, all the weapons. And we are talking about real disarmament, not fictitious disarmament.”

    A funeral ceremony for 30-year-old Subhi Sami Shehtut, who was killed in an Israeli strike in the Nuseirat refugee camp in Gaza on Wednesday. More than 1,100 Palestinians have been killed since the October 2025 ceasefire (Photo: Hassan Jedi/Getty)

    Trump dispatched his most trusted envoy, his son-in-law Jared Kushner, to talk to the Israelis. Tony Blair was also there, himself a member of Trump’s Gaza Board of Peace (which Trump once called the “Greatest and Most Prestigious Board ever assembled at any time, any place”).

    Netanyahu was able to avoid an open break with the US by agreeing to a formula that gives him what he wants, while saving face for Trump. There will be “working groups” to implement the peace deal, and a US general will supervise a Hamas weapons surrender, should one ever take place.

    Israel’s view of this new understanding was given to the diplomatic correspondent for i24 News, who posted on X that Israel – and by implication the US – was giving Hamas 30 days to prove it was serious about disarming. An unnamed senior Israeli official said: “If they fail to meet their commitments Israel will have the backing for military action.”

    But Hamas has the opposite interpretation of Trump’s Gaza peace plan. It says that disarmament must follow Israeli withdrawal, not the other way around.

    Through all this mess, one thing is clear: Trump wants a deal he can take the credit for, which puts Israel in an awkward position. If Netanyahu doesn’t fall into line, Trump may throw his weight behind someone else.

    Netanyahu will see a benefit to having Trump’s personal blessing, but there is value in being seen to stand up for Israeli interests against the US, especially over Gaza. The far-right elements of his coalition virulently oppose any kind of peace deal. They want to expel the Palestinians to Egypt or anywhere else that will take them. Opinion polls in Israel also show Trump’s popularity has collapsed there.

    Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, Trump’s US special envoys, have been part of efforts to find a deal between Hamas and Israel (Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP)

    But in continuing to pursue the war in Gaza, Netanyahu risks much more than Trump’s friendship.

    Polls show that a majority of Americans now view Israel unfavourably. Republicans are still – just – supportive, but 57 per cent of Republicans under the age of 50 are critical. When it comes to the Democratic Party, Israel’s traditional supporter, it’s even worse. A Pew survey says eight out of ten Democrats have an unfavourable view of the country.

    There is a generational change in America, and it is not good for the Jewish state.

    Rahm Emanuel, Barack Obama’s former chief of staff and a plausible Democratic candidate for president in 2028, gave a speech about this last month in Israel. He said he was a lifelong supporter of Israel – his father was born in Jerusalem and fought in the country’s war of independence – but went on to deliver an indictment of Netanyahu.

    He declared that Netanyahu and his government “have led Israel into a dead-end”, adding that the US could no longer “blindly and silently” support Israel “without conditions, without demands, and without consequences”.

    In the key line from his speech, Emanuel said: “You cannot fight indefinitely against a world that has stopped believing you have the right to fight.”

    During interviews following the speech, Emanuel accused Netanyahu of having made Israel “politically, strategically, economically a pariah”.

    “You have lost Europe. You have lost the United States,” he warned. “It should be obvious that strategic isolation is not a foundation for security. It’s a countdown clock.”

    The Israeli prime minister’s vision of his country is one of a modern-day Sparta surrounded by enemies, fighting forever to ensure its survival. But Sparta fell when it lost its allies. In denying Trump his “deal” in Gaza, Netanyahu risks alienating not one man but a whole country.

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