Will Paris Saint-Germain retain their crown? Which clubs could pose a serious threat to the European champions, and who are the likely relegation candidates? We answer the key questions with our Ligue 1 2026-27 season predictions from the Opta supercomputer.
Like last year, Paris Saint-Germain head into the new season as reigning Ligue 1 and European champions.
Luis Enrique’s team became the first side since Real Madrid, between 2016 and 2018, to successfully retain the UEFA Champions League crown, while they edged out Lens in their domestic title race.
PSG have won Ligue 1 in each of the past five seasons, and they will once again be the team to beat in France’s top flight.
Well adrift of the top two last season were Lille, who finished third, just ahead of Lyon and Marseille, while Rennes and Monaco completed Ligue 1’s European qualifiers.
Nantes and Metz went down, being replaced by Troyes and Le Mans, while Nice beat Saint-Etienne 4-1 on aggregate in the relegation play-off to maintain their top-flight status.
But in 2026-27, which teams could challenge PSG’s dominance, and which clubs are set to be scrapping it out at the bottom of the standings?
Here, using the 10,000 data-led simulations run by the Opta supercomputer, we assess how the 2026-27 Ligue 1 season could pan out.
Who Will Win the Ligue 1 Title?
It will surprise absolutely nobody to see that PSG are the supercomputer’s big favourites to win the title.
They finished six points clear of Lens last term, though they were tested by Pierre Sage’s team for the majority of the campaign.
And the fact that they didn’t quite run away with the crown last season has perhaps played into PSG’s chances of glory dipping compared to this time last year.
It also has to be noted that Lens beat them in the curtain-raiser to the 2026-27 French season last weekend, winning 1-0 in the Trophée des Champions at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis.
Despite this, PSG still come out on top in a whopping 68.1% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-season simulations, but that is a fair chunk down from the 78.7% chance they were assigned before last season kicked off.
PSG were not quite as dominant in the league in 2025-26 as they had been in the 2024-25 campaign. They lost six games, winning 24 and drawing four.
However, they were still top dogs in the end.
Luis Enrique’s team averaged the highest possession of any team in Europe’s top five leagues (68.9%), while in Ligue 1, they scored at least eight more goals (74) than any other team (Lens ranked second on 66).
PSG’s 72.1 expected goals was also the highest in the competition, ahead of Lens’ 67.6. The champions had 602 shots, 43 clear than any other team, and 227 of those hit the target – Marseille ranked second, with 194.
And PSG’s star-studded attack had plenty of the ball in the final third. Indeed, their 1,215 touches in the opposition box was 170 more than next-best Lens (1,045).
Going the other way, PSG also had the best defence in Ligue 1, shipping just 29 goals from a league-low 31.9 xG against.
They were the only team in Ligue 1 to face fewer than 300 shots (299), too.
While there are question marks over Bradley Barcola’s future, an attack of Ousmane Dembélé would be by far the strongest in the league anyway, while Thorgan Hazard, younger brother of Eden, headlines Lens’ summer recruitment drive, with Malang Sarr and Allan Saint-Maximin among the other players to depart.
So, new coach Dino Toppmöller has a rebuild to deal with, though our model still fancies Lens’ chances of finishing high up.
They are the most likely team to finish second (19.4%). They won the title in 9.7% of the simulations.
There is only a 0.6% chance they go down, which is down from 4.6% prior to the start of last season.
Lens are tipped to be the best of the rest, while Lille have an 11.4% chance of matching their third-place finish from last season, while they come in at 4.5% for the Ligue 1 title.
Monaco are just behind Lyon when it comes to title chances, with 3.4% and 3.8%, respectively, while Marseille are slightly further back at 2.9%.
Rennes are at 2.8%, with Strasbourg (1.6%) the only other club to have a higher-than-1% chance of winning the title.
So, it’s safe to say, yet again, it’s PSG’s to lose.
Who Will Qualify for the Champions League?
There is a 44.8% likelihood Lens qualify for the Champions League, making them the most likely team after PSG to do so.
However, can their squad right now deal with the rigours of Champions League football this season, while also remaining competitive in Ligue 1?
That will be a big ask, and there is an 11.8% chance Lens slip into the bottom half.
Lille are under new management, with Davide Ancelotti – son of Carlo – taking charge this summer. He could well have to deal with the loss of star youngster
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