Forgive me, but I must ask – has Nigel Farage gone a bit doolally? Has he undergone what doctors might call a serious judgement-ectomy?
Even friends are starting to wonder. This by-election was a pointless waste of money, and if anything Farage is weaker now than he was four weeks ago when he made his shock announcement to resign and fight a contest which has exposed a more unattractive character. Has the Reform UK leader’s famous “common touch”, his reputation for sensing the public mood, deserted him? Has his feel for political tactics and strategy been overwhelmed by an extraordinary aggression, an unattractive state of grievance, and a new fear?
Not since the IRA hunger striker Bobby Sands fought Fermanagh and South Tyrone 45 years ago has a candidate won a by-election but not attended the declaration of their victory. And Sands couldn’t attend because he was in jail.
Early this morning, Farage announced he would voluntarily stay away from his moment of triumph, citing “credible threats” against him, and a warning he said, from the police, about an “organised campaign to disrupt the result”. Yet, strangely, Essex police have denied advising any candidate not to attend the count.
A more plausible explanation emerged when Farage made the extraordinary declaration: “I am damned if I am going to stand on a stage, having won a resounding victory… and be demeaned and humiliated by nobodies.” What kind of politician is it who talks about being “demeaned and humiliated”?
And by “nobodies”, Farage presumably meant Count Binface, played by comedian Jon Henley wearing a metal dustbin over his head, who won an astonishing 26.9 per cent of the vote, easily the highest share achieved by a “joke” candidate in any British by-election. Binface’s 9,455 votes contrast with the meagre 95 he got against Andy Burnham in Makerfield eight weeks ago.
Farage’s decision not to attend the declaration was a serious own goal. Surely Farage should have been making the most of his Clacton triumph – only his second success in a Westminster election in nine attempts?
Even standing next to Binface, he could have made light of it, congratulated him and praised Binface’s courage in standing when all the main parties “ran away”. In an instant last night, Farage turned everything round, and it’s now he who’s accused of being scared and running away. That follows three months in which he has avoided questions about the mysterious £5 million “gift” he received from crypto-billionaire Christopher Harborne.
Traditionally, Farage is brilliant at using humour as a weapon, but only when he’s in control of the fun. Like many bully types, Farage hates it when others take the Mickey out of him, especially to his face. No wonder he chose not to be “demeaned and humiliated”, a phrase which will enter the political lexicon. He knows Binface – or Jon Henley – is hardly a “nobody”, but a highly intelligent, witty and accomplished satirist. Binface would have been merciless in mocking Farage’s empty success.
True, Farage’s total vote rose but one would expect Farage’s vote to have risen when the other major parties didn’t stand, arguing it was just a stunt. Even Farage’s new rivals on the nationalist right – Rupert Lowe’s even more right-wing Restore Britain – declined to enter the fray.
Last night’s figures merely prompt the question: “So what?” It would have been astonishing, in fact, if Farage hadn’t won Clacton. For decades it’s been the most Brexity constituency in Britain. Back in 1997, when Sir James Goldsmith’s anti-EU Referendum Party ran a huge campaign, they clocked their highest vote anywhere in the old Harwich seat which is now largely the modern Clacton constituency. Clacton was Ukip’s first Westminster in 2014.
Indeed, Farage only fought the constituency in 2024 as it was his party’s best prospect, 70 per cent of its voters having gone for Brexit in the 2016 referendum. Clacton’s demographics are ideal – almost 97 per cent white, full of retired people, and very different from the other 649 constituencies. The real significance of Clacton was Farage’s astonishing misjudgement in calling the by-election when he should have realised it would change nothing. And the further evolution of his bizarre behaviour – snarling and far from relaxed, whinging incessantly about “establishment” stitch-ups.
The Reform leader should listen to an admirer, Tim Montgomerie, a highly astute political strategist who defected from the Tories last year, saying that Nigel should have been on every TV screen this morning. He went on X to remind Farage that his value rests on “being the Nigel that so many voters like the idea of hanging out with – in a pub. But this recently far too dominant, aggrieved tone is not good. You don’t skip your own victory count without a much better explanation. Anger from politicians can work but only if it’s on behalf of others – not yourself. He’s distracting from his victory. Puzzling.”
Now this by-election is over, the investigation into Farage’s financial affairs by the Parliamentary standards commissioner is restarting. Farage claims this result proves he’s got the backing of his constituents in his battle with the authorities and that Clacton has “stuck two fingers up to the entire political establishment”.
But the standards commissioner won’t be bullied. If – as seems likely – he reprimands Farage and recommends he be suspended as an MP for 10 days or more, it could lead to another by-election in the next few months. Unlike this by-election, the main parties have all promised to stand if there’s another one, making it a much more typical contest.
Nonetheless, Farage would probably win again. And again, given Clacton’s highly unusual character, the world would be entitled to ask: “So what?”
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