This year’s extreme hot weather and drought could hit next year’s summer barbecues by driving up the price of steak and burgers, The i Paper has learnt.
Fruit and vegetables as well as breads and cereal could also see price rises as repeated heatwaves and the driest July since records began have left farmers struggling with a lack of water, hitting crop yields.
Several experts have told The i Paper this is likely to feed through to higher price rises in around six to 12 months, after the Met Office said 2026 was likely to see the hottest summer on record.
The Food and Drink Federation (FDF) said “fruit, vegetable and grain supply” have all been hit by the scorching conditions.
Cherries, broccoli and meat all face difficulties
Dwindling grain supply is in turn driving the cost of animal feed higher, while grass pastures are suffering in drought conditions, meaning the cost of meat and particularly beef, including popular barbecue products like steaks and burgers could rise before next summer, an industry source said.
More immediately, British supplies of broccoli and cherries are already under pressure, the source added.
Alistair Carmichael, chair of the Commons Environment Committee, meanwhile sounded the alarm over poor yields of wheat and barley, key ingredients for a huge range of products from loaves of bread to breakfast cereals.
However, others in the industry said fruit and veg are impacted more severely by heat and have a short supply chain which also often requires temperature-controlled “cold chains” including refrigerated trucks and planes, making it harder for food manufacturers to source them from elsewhere.
While the impact is most likely to be felt next year, price rises are on the way and are being compounded by the wars in Iran and Ukraine, Carmichael and the FDF said.
Poor harvests in past and Ukraine war
Carmichael, the Liberal Democrat ex-Cabinet minister, told The i Paper: “If you think that wheat and barley, combinable crops like that are already reporting lower yields – that’s the fundamental building block for an awful lot of things from loaves of bread to breakfast cereals.
“I’m also hearing a lot of vegetable farmers saying they are also experiencing poor yields because of the very dry weather, the very hot weather, and the lack of availability of water to irrigate their crops.
“This is coming off the back of farmers already having higher food costs in the spring because of what’s going on in the Strait of Hormuz – fertiliser costs have been higher and fuel costs have been higher.
“So the demand will remain the same but if you have not got the supply then the price goes up, that’s economics 101.
“The other factor you have to take into account is where we have had poor harvests in the past, because this is not new, we have been able to supplement that with imports from other parts of Europe.
“But actually continental Europe is in as bad, if not a worse position, that we are.
“On top of that you still have the conventional war in Ukraine, the bread basket of Europe – it’s called that for a reason.”
He added: “This will probably generate a spike in food prices and we will need to deal with that but in the medium to long term, we need to get real about the way we leave ourselves exposed by not taking seriously the need to sustain our own core food production.”
Supply across Europe is impacted
Liliana Danila, the FDF’s chief economist, also highlighted European heatwaves and droughts, adding: “Not only is the UK experiencing one of its hottest and driest summers on record, but across most of Europe heatwaves and severe droughts are impacting fruit, vegetable and grain supply.
“Competition for fewer resources will in turn push up the price of ingredients for manufacturers.
“The UK’s food and drink manufacturers work hard to absorb costs where they can, but are already grappling with rising costs as a result of war in Ukraine and in Iran, so we expect the additional upward pressure of reduced crops will be reflected in retail prices into next year.
Andrew Opie, director of food and sustainability policy at the British Retail Consortium, said: “Extreme weather, including drought, can affect crop yields and place upward pressure on prices. Retailers are experienced in managing supply disruptions and will take all necessary steps, including sourcing from alternative suppliers where appropriate, to minimise any impact on customers.”
Food supplies will be secure, government says
The i Paper understands that ministers are looking at helping farmers by making it easier for them to extract more water from natural sources like rivers at times of high rainfall, and then find local solutions to store it in reservoirs ready to use in droughts.
Supermarkets are meanwhile already acting to increase supplies of home-grown cucumbers, along with peppers and tomatoes, from British producers and extending domestic production beyond summer using glasshouses to ensure supplies.
A Defra (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) spokeswoman said: “The UK has a highly resilient food system, drawing on both strong domestic production and international trade and we do not expect the recent dry weather to have any impact on national food security.
“Alongside this, we are building stronger, more resilient food supply chains to protect Britain from potential disruptions along with the new Farming Roadmap and our work with the National Drought Group and Farming and Food Partnership Board.”
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