Win or lose the midterms, an unconstrained Donald Trump is expected to spend his last two years in power trampling over Congress, US law and the constitution in order to force through his agenda.
There is growing belief that even if the Republican Party loses Congress in the elections this November, the President will escalate his campaign to cement his legacy by stepping up efforts to force through controversial policies, this time helped by an injection of “Maga diehards”.
Increased instability and growing divides in American politics are likely, analysts have said. Trump could intensify restrictive immigration policies, issue controversial pardons, and even escalate military action to try to oust regimes in Iran and Cuba that have so far denied him quick foreign policy victories.
‘Trump shows signs of being completely unfettered’
“[Trump] is someone who increasingly is showing signs of completely being unfettered in the way in which he approaches politics, life, business, corruption – a whole variety of different things,” said David Dunn, professor in international politics at the University of Birmingham.
The Democrats are expected to retake the House of Representatives in November and are hoping to win back the Senate, which Republicans control by 53 to 47.
Before we even get there, experts expect Trump to attempt to discredit and disrupt the electoral process, as he has done consistently. The President has repeatedly claimed, without evidence, that the 2020 election was rigged.
(Photo by Tom Brenner/Getty Images)The disruption “may even take the form of him instructing people in Congress not even to sit, not to accept the result. You may have a constitutional crisis,” Dunn warned.
Many are worried that Trump is laying the groundwork to rig the elections. Trump recently fired the last members of the independent Election Assistance Commission, which assists election administration officials nationwide. He is attempting to curb mail-in voting, and has threatened to withhold funding from states that do not follow his proposed “common sense” election rules.
Maga diehards will replace moderates
A Democrat win would likely spark investigations and subpoenas into the President and his family. However, Trump does not seem concerned, according to insiders quoted by Axios.
Regardless of who wins, after the midterms “moderate Republicans will be replaced with Maga diehards, and that’s true across the board, most notably in Texas”, said Dunn. “But it means actually both houses of Congress after the midterm elections will be the most pure Maga Congress in terms of the Republican element of it that we’ve ever had.
That means less opposition and more freedom to do whatever Trump pleases. “So what we should expect in the post-midterm period is an intensification of the divisions and the strife at the heart of American politics,” he added.
Trump will also continue his efforts to visually “stamp his permanent mark on US politics,” says Dr James D Boys, senior research fellow at the Centre on US Politics at UCL, by “naming buildings and institutions after himself, erecting edifices in Washington and leaving an indelible gold-leaf legacy behind”.
Miles Taylor, former chief of staff of the US Department of Homeland Security during Trump’s first term, has warned that the next two years will see “Maga unleashed”.
Taylor wrote in The i Paper that he expected Trump to step up his efforts to bring the government under his personal control, sidestepping Congress, spending money lawmakers never approved, breaking laws and ignoring the body’s constitutional functions.
Insiders told Taylor they expected him to intensify his punishment of Democratic-led states with the full weight of the federal government, such as denying them disaster aid, while giving his faithful contracts and favours.
Trump is likely to focus on executive actions and pardons, rather than passing legislation, and he knows he will have increased influence in Congress because almost all of his GOP critics will be gone.
However, Dr Boys pointed out that because of this rule by executive order, his policies could be easily overturned. “So it will be interesting to see if his administration is able to secure the passage of legislation to make such decrees permanent. Its ability to do so will depend greatly upon the mid-term results.”
The Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Grapevine, Texas (Photo: Leandro Lozada/AFP via Getty)Trump’s intensifying agenda
We can expect Trump to ignore the courts even “more brazenly” than he has done, Dunn said. “So we can see him in his last two years really seeing this as a last opportunity to enact all the things that he wants done and the things that are wrong with America.” He said this will include intensifying action on immigration and foreign policy.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if he, after the midterms when there’s no electoral considerations involved, to escalate [the war in Iran], to bring that to a conclusion in a way that makes him look good in his opinion, and therefore actually increasing the bombing or even actually the use of ground troops to remove the regime in Tehran.”
This could also be true of Cuba, he said, with Trump trying to remove the regime and “open that up for his real estate friends to get their teeth back into”.
Dr Boys also said that Trump was likely to issue a series of controversial pardons for his family and closest aides to protect them from “politically motivated prosecution in the future,” given the precedent set by Joe Biden at the end of his presidency.
Trump will also try to shape the race to replace him in 2028. “Vice President [JD] Vance is currently the forerunner for the Republican Party nomination, and will doubtless be making regular visits to Iowa, New Hampshire and other key states in the coming months to shore up his support,” says Dr Boys.
But Trump might not make it easy for him to do this.
Dunn said that Trump’s talk about running for a third term or fourth term – which is banned by the constitution – was suppressing “the normal process post-midterm of candidates identifying themselves, declaring their candidacy and starting to run and gather money and go to New Hampshire and Iowa and all the rest of those things”.
He predicted that Trump was continuing with this talk “not necessarily because he will or because he wants to”, but in order to create instability and to stop Vance and Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, from declaring their candidacy in a way that would “eclipse the drama that is the Trump show”.
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