Ohio Valley Conference Football Predictions: UT Martin Seeks a Return to the Top ...Middle East

With the 2026 FCS football season fast approaching, we’re making predictions for the Ohio Valley Conference. UT Martin – the steadiest program in recent seasons – is the one to beat.

In an age of frequent roster upheaval across college football, a lot of new players have to step into key roles each season.

But as Ohio Valley Conference football returns as the branding of a fourth-year FCS partnership with the Big South, there’s the possibly, if not probability, of offensive shootouts in the league schedule. The OVC’s bigger names return much more frequently on offense than on defense.

Tennessee Tech went unbeaten in winning what was the OVC-Big South Football Association last year, but it’s departed via conference realignment. That leaves UT Martin as the favorite in this year’s eight-team race, but with a number of contenders right behind in a conference with close games.

Each team capsule below pits FCS senior editor Craig Haley’s predicted order up against the Opta projection model. The supercomputer, if you will, incorporates TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster) and other factors while running thousands of simulations to determine an average number of wins and losses per team.

2026 Ohio Valley Conference Football Predictions

1. UT Martin Skyhawks

Last year’s FCS leader in average time of possession (34 minutes, 38 seconds) will continue to control game clock when Missouri transfer quarterback Aidan Glover spreads the ball to running backs Tommy Ansley and Chris Franklin and wide receiver Phaizon Wilson. Under coach Jason Simpson, the Skyhawks are 27-6 in conference games over the last five seasons.

2. Gardner-Webb Runnin’ Bulldogs

New coach Kris McCullough guided a potent attack at UT Permian Basin (a 38.1-point average in his three seasons). That shouldn’t change at G-W, whose 27.5-point and 417.8-yard averages last season trailed only Tennessee Tech in conference. The unit returns QB Cole Pennington and Walter Payton Award preseason nominee Carson Gresock (24 rushing TDs over the last two seasons).

3. Lindenwood Lions

The Lions are eligible for the FCS playoffs for the first time and may wind up getting there. New QB Pops Battle has a full cupboard with 600-yard rushers Steve Hall and Jared Rhodes and 700-yard receiver Jalen Smith.

4. Southeast Missouri Redhawks

SEMO made the FCS playoffs the last two times it came off four wins. Returning QB Johnny Weber (3-2 as a starter) has competition from Chance Wilson, who transferred in from FCS champion Montana State. Back from injury, edge rusher McCoy Casey (11.0 TFLs, 5.0 sacks in 2024) is one of the OVC’s premier players – named to the Stats Perform FCS Preseason All-America third team.

5. Charleston Southern Buccaneers

The Bucs beat MEAC and Celebration Bowl champ South Carolina State out of conference and held conference foes to just 21.5 points per game. Linebacker Steve Zayachkowsky was named to the Buck Buchanan Award Preseason Watch List after leading the conference with 109 tackles. The defense also is strong in the secondary with Champ Brantley and Anthony Paulk.

6. Western Illinois Fighting Leathernecks

Cason Carswell passed for 16 TDs against only three interceptions while being named the conference’s offensive freshman of the year. He needs a full season out of WR Christian Anaya, who caught 44 passes in just eight games.

7. Eastern Illinois Panthers

This year’s newcomers may find it hard to match some of last season’s newcomers: LB Ja’Wuan Nickson seemed to save his best games for the best opponents while ranking fourth in the conference with 95 tackles, while Charles Kellom was fifth with 711 rushing yards.

8. Tennessee State Tigers

No FCS team had a bigger drop-off last season than TSU from its 9-4 record in 2024. But the offense will be much improved in coach Reggie Barlow’s second season as new QB Daylin Lee accounted for 70 passing and rushing TDs in three seasons at Division II Winston-Salem.

Top photo, from left, via Gardner-Webb, UT Martin and SEMO Athletics. For more FCS football coverage, follow at X, Facebook, Instagram and Bluesky.

Ohio Valley Conference Football Predictions: UT Martin Seeks a Return to the Top Opta Analyst.

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