How Ukraine’s relentless strikes on Russia could actually boost Putin ...Middle East

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How Ukraine’s relentless strikes on Russia could actually boost Putin

On a quiet Monday near the Russian resort town of Gelendzhik, people were sunbathing and paddling when a drone erupted from the skies, hurtling downwards to explode on the sand. Videos circulating online showed holidaymakers watching with faces to the sky as the drone came down, and wading out of the sea as plumes of smoke rose.

At least seven people, including three children, were reported to have been killed and 40 injured in the attack, which Russia has blamed on Ukraine. It is not clear what the drone was targeting or whether it had veered off course due to a malfunction, direction error or electronic warfare, which can interfere with the signal between drone and controller. Ukraine has not commented on the incident but has repeatedly said it does not target civilians.

    The beach blast was the latest in a wave of explosions inside Russia designed to hit the Kremlin where it hurts. In recent weeks, Ukraine has targeted logistics hubs and energy sites, with a series of strikes on warehouses belonging to Russia’s version of Amazon, and now reportedly targeting its second-largest e-commerce company, Ozon.

    Eight people were killed in Russia during separate drone attacks over the weekend. Russia has also blamed Ukraine for a bomb attack on a restaurant in Moscow that killed five people, with speculation the target was a senior Russian military commander reportedly celebrating his birthday, but this has not been confirmed.

    Analysts have warned that Vladimir Putin could use the attacks as anti-Ukraine propaganda to shore up support for his invasion.

    Tim Willasey-Wilsey, a former British diplomat, warned that Ukrainian attacks risked increasing criticism of Kyiv and strengthening up Russian support for the war. “Ukraine’s targeting policy has been carefully calibrated to focus on petrochemical industries and dual-use supply chains. But, as we know from history – not least the London Blitz – the bombing of civilians tends to antagonise people and reinforce, rather than weaken, morale,” he told The i Paper.

    While Russia has been “targeting civilians since day one” – with daily ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv “killing civilians by the dozen”, Willasey-Wilsey said that Ukraine “will be held to a higher standard” because it is a Western ally and democratic country.

    “The occasional error by Ukraine will be understood by the international community, like the drone on the beach, but it must not become normalised,” Willasey-Wilsey, a senior associate fellow at defence thinktank Rusi, said.

    In the first six months of the year, Russia reported that 250 of its civilians had been killed and 1,596 injured, a 121 per cent increase compared with the same period in 2025, according to figures shared with the UN.

    Smoke could be seen billowing into the sky after Ukrainian attacks on Russian retailer Wildberries (Photo: AP)

    The figures pale in comparison to the number of Ukrainian civilians killed by Russia since it launched a full-scale invasion four years ago. At least 293 civilians were killed and 1,990 injured in Ukraine in June alone, UN figures show – the highest monthly death toll since April 2022, shortly after the war began.

    Civilian casualties in Ukraine have risen steadily from month to month and from year to year, amid intensifying use of powerful weapons, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine has warned. In the first six months of 2026, 1,396 civilians died and 7,978 were injured – a 37 per cent rise from the same period in 2025, and a 114 per cent increase compared with the year before.

    Dr Marina Miron, a researcher at King’s College London’s War Studies team, said that Ukraine’s hopes of galvanising Russian opinion against the war through strikes on infrastructure and factories could well backfire.

    The aftermath of a Ukrainian strike on a Wildberries warehouse in Yekaterinburg, Russia. Kyiv has hit at least 10 similar facilities in recent weeks across the country (Photo: Reuters)

    “It is difficult to measure the overall impact on society because there will be those who might turn against the war, but not necessarily against the Kremlin,” Miron said.

    “It’s not necessarily making people angry at the Government; it’s making people angry at Ukrainians.” Miron said that influential Russian military bloggers had been “pushing for retribution” and calling for increased strikes on Ukraine.

    “From my perspective, the intended effect – to weaken Russia’s resolve and capability to conduct military operations and at the same time turn the people against the government – is not exactly working,” she said.

    Ukrainian firefighters work at the site of a Russian missile strike in the Kyiv region on 5 August (Photo: Anatolii Stepanov/ Reuters)

    “Yes, it’s creating economic hardships for people, and some of them will be blaming the government, but it’s not nearly enough in order to actually achieve what Ukraine is seeking to achieve. And of course, it’s also costing Ukraine because we have seen the retribution strikes.”

    But for Mykola Davydiuk, Ukraine’s newest MP, there is little concern that the strikes boost support for the invasion among the Russian public.

    “I don’t think that could damage the perception of Ukraine, but it could bring down Putin’s rating, as he promised [the war] would only last two or three days,” Davydiuk told The i Paper.

    “He promised to win, but now he brings the war to Russian territory. It shows he can’t keep his promises.”

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