United Athletic Conference Football Predictions: Tarleton State Favored as Abilene Christian Seeks Three-Peat ...Middle East

With the 2026 FCS football season fast approaching, we’re making predictions for the United Athletic Conference. Abilene Christian and Tarleton State, last year’s co-champs, were tied atop the conference’s preseason poll. We’re here to break the tie.

The United Athletic Conference has been the breakthrough conference of FCS football the last two seasons, but it’s starting off the 2026 season by playing icebreaker games.

As in teammates getting to know each other.

Defending co-champs Abilene Christian and Tarleton State, which both have wins in back-to-back FCS playoff appearances, still lead the way for a conference that has been as strong as any after the Big Sky and Missouri Valley. 

But in a UAC that’s always been transfer-heavy, only seven players who made the all-conference first and second teams last season are back this season (none from the defensive side). Plus, West Florida has joined the conference following the departures of Southern Utah and Utah Tech to the Big Sky.

Each team capsule below pits FCS senior editor Craig Haley’s predicted order up against the Opta projection model. The supercomputer, if you will, incorporates TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster) and other factors while running thousands of simulations to determine an average number of wins and losses per team.

2026 United Athletic Conference Football Predictions

1. Tarleton State Texans

Opponents will be disrupted by the running back trio of Tylan Hines and transfers Miequle Brock Jr. (McNeese) and Markellus Bass (JUCO), and a squad that was plus-30 in turnover margin (the Texans’ +2.14 per-game margin was the eighth best ever in an FCS season).

2. Austin Peay Governors

Quarterback Chris Parson ranked fourth in the FCS in total offensive yards per game (312.2), and it’s second among this year’s returning FCS players to Walter Payton Award recipient Beau Brungard of Youngstown State. Parson returns to the Payton preseason watch list and Stats Perform FCS Preseason All-America Team.

3. Abilene Christian Wildcats

The two-time defending UAC champion’s new QB (transfers Kanon Gibson and Marcos Davila are in the mix) can rely on a stout offensive line, RB Rovaughn Banks Jr. (687 rushing yards) and breakout tight end Itty Henry.

4. Eastern Kentucky Colonels

Brayden Latham, Bradley Hensley and dual-threat QB Myles Burkett combined for over 1,500 yards on the ground. Linebacker Kaden Smith made the Buck Buchanan Award Preseason Watch List and was tabbed UAC preseason defensive player of the year.

5. West Georgia Wolves

New coach Steve Englehart led Presbyterian to its first 10-win season since 2005 and has brought along QB Collin Hurst, the 2025 Pioneer Football League offensive player of the year. The Wolves, who will face their first two FBS opponents (Kennesaw State and Arkansas State), are not eligible for the FCS playoffs until next year.

6. Central Arkansas Bears

The Bears face a particularly tough road schedule one year after allowing 35.2 points per game – highest of their Division I era (since 2006). Transfer QB Walker White (Auburn, then Baylor) was once the top-ranked high school player in Arkansas.

7. North Alabama Lions

The grand opening of Bank Independent Stadium in the season’s fourth game will energize a UNA program’s that is 16-53 since making a 7-3 debut in the FCS in 2018. Veteran tackle Jyheam Ingram is the anchor of what should be an improved defense.

8. West Florida Argonauts

The Argonauts went 81-30 in nine Division II seasons, winning the 2019 national title under now-Towson coach Pete Shinnick. Kaleb Nobles is 25-9 through three seasons, but his program is not playoff-eligible until 2027.

Top photo, from left, via Abilene Christian, Austin Peay and Tarleton State Athletics. For more FCS football coverage, follow at X, Facebook, Instagram and Bluesky.

United Athletic Conference Football Predictions: Tarleton State Favored as Abilene Christian Seeks Three-Peat Opta Analyst.

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