Over the course of the next six days, the Mets figure to ship out around a half dozen players. Right-hander Freddy Peralta is mired in a deep slump, but even amid a rough stint on the mound, he’s still one of the likeliest players on the roster to change hands. The longtime Brewers standout is being paid $8MM this season and is a free agent at season’s end.
Even with the recent struggles, Peralta has drawn interest from a variety of team. Robert Murray of FanSided reports that the Rays have expressed interest in the 30-year-old righty. The Athletic’s Matt Gelb writes that the Phillies were among the teams scouting Peralta’s most recent start. ESPN’s Jeff Passan suggests in his latest podcast episode (YouTube link) that a match with the Cubs feels unlikely before reporting, perhaps most interestingly of all, that the Mets and Brewers have discussed the possibility of a trade sending Peralta back to Milwaukee.
None of those clubs stands as a particularly surprising fit for Peralta — or any other starter on the market. (If anything, it’s almost more notable that Passan suggests a match with the Cubs feels unlikely.) The Rays haven’t gotten what they hoped from Steven Matz in the rotation. Griffin Jax has been solid but not great since stretching back out, and his workload will be a concern at some point after several years spent in relief. Ryan Pepiot is out for the season. The Phillies, meanwhile, had to option struggling fifth starter Andrew Painter and don’t have much in-house depth in the waiting. The Brewers recently lost Brandon Woodruff to season-ending shoulder surgery. Kyle Harrison is dealing with some forearm/elbow tightness. Quinn Priester won’t pitch this season.
Peralta is struggling through a career-worst season but obviously has a strong track record. He got to a relatively pedestrian start in Queens and strung together some nice starts in late April and early/mid-May, but he’s been shelled throughout the summer. Over his past 11 starts, Peralta has totaled only 51 2/3 innings while limping to a 6.71 ERA. An awful Mets defense has played a role — as evidenced by Peralta’s .361 average on balls in play during this skid — but can’t be solely blamed for the right-hander’s struggles; Peralta’s strikeout, walk, swinging-strike and home run rates have all trended the wrong direction.
Recently slide notwithstanding, Peralta’s track record probably leaves many other clubs believing they can get him back on track. He hasn’t experienced any sort of alarming velocity dip. His rate stats may be down, but none of them are especially poor; they’re generally close to league average. The Rays and Brewers have track records of improving pitcher performance. Both have had some misses but are generally regarded as organizations with quality “pitch labs.” Peralta’s salary makes him an affordable fit for any team seeking pitching, and his rental status means the asking price won’t be exorbitant.
At first glance, it’s fair to wonder whether the Mets would benefit from selling low. Entering the season, Peralta looked like one of the five best free agents of the upcoming class and was a slam-dunk qualifying offer recipient. Now, in light of his recent struggles, a QO no longer seems as palatable. Even if the Mets held onto Peralta in hopes of him righting the ship and meriting a QO, their status as a luxury-tax payor means the compensatory pick they’d receive would come between the fourth and fifth rounds. Even with Peralta struggling, a trade should net a better return than that.
Given all that context, a trade of Peralta is a veritable inevitability. The question isn’t so much one of “if” but rather one of “where” and “when” he’ll be moved. He’s one of several Mets impending free agents who’s all but assured to change hands. Fellow starter Clay Holmes will also be in high demand, and relievers like A.J. Minter and Brooks Raley are sure to move, too. Outfielders Luis Robert Jr. and Tyrone Taylor are free agents at season’s end, though the Mets would need to eat money to deal the former. Luke Weaver will draw strong interest amid a terrific season, though he’s signed through 2027. Reliever Huascar Brazoban has a good chance to move; he’s controllable through 2029 but is a late bloomer approaching his 37th birthday. It’ll be an active deadline for the Mets, and the first domino could fall at any point.
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