Meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky, Andy Burnham has had a frank introduction to the realities of war in Ukraine, and the grim challenge in which Britain is inextricably involved.
Zelensky needs far more British and European support, in quantity and quality. After four years and four months, Ukraine is not losing – surprisingly – but not winning enough. Russia is bleeding, but not about to give up.
The conflict is at an inflection point, and is likely to take more of Burnham’s attention than he bargained for. It will also force the Prime Minister to reflect on the inadequacies of the defence and security policies he inherited from Sir Keir Starmer – policies that are vital to guarantee security at home as much as abroad.
Ukraine’s main cities are being battered by drones and ballistic missiles, and sophisticated counter-weapons, American Patriots especially, are running out.
Patriots aren’t easily replaced. Donald Trump, in a flash of unexpected generosity, has offered to give Zelensky and the Ukrainians the patents and know-how to make their own. But this is easier said than done, given the sophistication, length of production and sheer cost involved. Each missile costs about $4m each. It takes around two years to make a projectile, involving a supply chain of 200 component suppliers, plus subcontractors.
Burnham has offered the intellectual property on the Stone Cloak system for drone protection against Russia air defences. It’s a tricky little device to be attached to drones and missiles to baffle the Russian counter-battery fire, and is being used on new generations of these weapons for the British and Ukrainian armies.
Britain will offer more missiles and rockets such as the cheaper cruise missile commissioned under the UK’s Brakestop programme. Each missile is expected to travel up to 500 kilometres, carry 250 kilograms of explosive and cost a maximum of £400,000 (a UK Storm Shadow costs over a million). These are being designed for both the UK and Ukraine.
Burnham used his first bilateral meeting with a foreign leader to underline Britain’s support for Kyiv – but he has a big job on his hands (Photo: Simon Jones/Pool/AFP via Getty Images)More to the point is the £3.16m for short-range drones to attack incoming drones and missiles funded under the Ministry of Defence’s Low Cost Air Defence Effects scheme. These include the Skyhammer counter-drone from Cambridge Aerospace, founded by former cabinet minister Grant Shapps and Professor Steve Barrett of Cambridge. They are also pioneering the Starhammer, a supersonic counter-missile rocket that works like the Patriot at a fraction of the price.
Britain has pledged roughly £3bn per annum in aid and assistance to Kyiv for the duration of the war. It is a trusted leader, though the contribution of allies such as Germany and Poland is far greater in volume. British military and diplomatic advice also helped Zelensky and his commanders reshape their resources for the long campaign of defence.
Yet, there is a lot of mutual benefit. The Ukrainians are now the masters of drone warfare, in which they are taking the lead in training British forces.
Kyiv is still winning, psychologically at least, with drone tactics on the main front – which has led to the virtual isolation of Crimea, the crushing of shipping in the Sea of Azov and interdicting the main highways just behind the frontline from Donbas to Kherson. Its current strengths lie in long-range drone and missile attacks into Russia, hitting key infrastructure targets and major retail warehouses, hugely damaging civilian morale.
They also struck an Iranian warship in the Caspian Sea, which was allegedly transporting key drone and missile components from Iran to Russia. This suggests that the wars in Ukraine and Iran are becoming linked, another complication for Britain and its European allies.
While Vladimir Putin has the advantage in manpower, last month, Russia lost 31,800 killed and cripplingly injured in battle and cannot recruit the same number. There are reports that a depot is being built in Russia’s Voronezh region to house a further 30,000 North Koreans this autumn. At least a partial general mobilisation of up to 600,000 fresh troops is now expected above the regular Russian autumn conscription draft. The fallout may offer Ukraine new opportunities.
The big message for Burnham this week is that he must fix the fragmented legacies he has been left in the 2025 Strategic Defence Review and the 2026 Defence Investment Plan, the latter a strange concoction of wishful thinking. He should pick out the bits of these that work, and quietly dump the rest.
Defence, security and resilience may not have been the Burnham choice of subjects to major in for his first term as prime minister. If ignored, however, war and peace have an ugly habit of clawing their way to the top of a national agenda.
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