The 2026 MLB Trade Deadline (and, thus, most of the action) doesn’t arrive until August 3, but the party has reportedly kicked off in a weirdly big way tonight. According to Jeff Passan, the Boston Red Sox and Washington Nationals are getting together on a rare big-leaguer-for-big-leaguer swap between contenders(ish).
Red Sox Trade Connelly Early to the Nationals for Curtis Mead
Passan’s report:
“BREAKING: The Boston Red Sox are trading left-hander Connelly Early to the Washington Nationals for infielder Curtis Mead, sources tell ESPN.”
The Red Sox only recently became contenders (let alone buyers) after somewhat surprisingly winning 15 games in a row. The Nationals, meanwhile, are one of the NL’s bubble teams who are only 2.0 games out of a Wild Card slot, but with lots of company.
To that end, this is a pretty big deal to go down tonight, and a pretty unexpected one, too.
Jul 17, 2026; West Sacramento, California, USA; Washington Nationals third baseman Curtis Mead (45) acknowledges the dugout after hitting a two-RBI double during the third inning against the Athletics at Sutter Health Park. Mandatory Credit: Scott Marshall-Imagn ImagesOn the one hand, there had been rumors of Boston’s willingness to trade one of their young starters (either Early or Payton Tolle) for a controllable bat in the not-so-distant past — in fact, we often discussed the potential for a swap of Matt Shaw, who is currently on the IL himself, for one of those starters (hold that thought). So to that end, okay…it’s not entirely out of left field. But Early is currently on the IL with elbow inflammation. And he hasn’t pitched since June.
I think we have to assume that injury negatively affected his value more than anticipated, because most reactions see this as an overpay by Boston.
That doesn’t mean there’s anything wrong with acquiring or dealing him. Pitchers get injured. Cubs fans know that better than anyone. But you don’t often see highly successful 24-year-old starters with many cheap years of team control remaining get dealt off contending teams … all while they’re injured.
And then for him to get dealt to the Nationals, of all teams, a team half the league projects to be sellers at the deadline, is the cherry on top. Of course, it is technically still a reasonable swap (as these sorts of non-prospect trades tend to be), even if it seems like an overpay (by Boston) at first blush. Aside from each team fulfilling a need both now and in the future, both players are young, cost-controlled guys in the beginning or middle of a breakout … but with an asterisk.
Early had a hot debut last season, and he has a 3.44 ERA this year, but his peripherals are way behind (4.33 xERA, 4.61 FIP), and he’s currently shelved with an elbow injury…. Mead, also young, is really hitting this season (135 wRC+), doubling his walk rate, greatly decreasing his strikeout rate, while roughly tripling his barrel rate. But he’s also had three false starts in the big leagues from 2023-2025 (77 wRC+ over 488 PAs).
Both guys have upside, both are young, both are already good this year, one is hurt. Again, it’s just one of those rare and random big leaguer trades (even rarer mid-season).
As for the Cubs, this might confirm that the Red Sox are not selling (though that felt pretty obvious by now). So just keep Sonny Gray and/or Aroldis Chapman off your lists. Well, and now Connelly Early, too, I guess.
I don’t think it says quite as much about the Nationals’ intentions, however. This deal just made sense for them anyway, and Early is currently hurt. Of course, their intentions do still matter because the Nats have a rental starter, Foster Griffin, who could be a good target for Jed Hoyer at the deadline (ranked #8 among my top-10 realistic Cubs trade deadline targets) if the Nationals sell.
And then there’s the Matt Shaw of it all. Maybe if he weren’t hurt, the Cubs could’ve done something similar with the Red Sox. Maybe they wouldn’t have even if they had the choice. Either way, the price for a player of moderately similar value has been set (thank you, Red Sox): a good, young, cost-controlled starter perhaps with a wart or two, but otherwise plenty of already realized upside. That just feels like very useful information to have so close to the deadline.
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