The Reds enter the 2026 trade deadline looking like one of the game’s few clear sellers. Cincinnati sits 47-54, placing them 16.5 games behind the Brewers in the National League Central. They’re technically only six games out in the Wild Card race, but they’d need to leapfrog six teams to grab a share of the third spot. It’s at least feasible that they could string together six or seven more wins in a row — they’ve won their past two — and make the front office rethink that stance, but the far likelier scenario is that Cincinnati will subtract some pieces from the roster.
Operating as a seller doesn’t necessarily mean tearing the roster down to the studs. To the contrary, Reds president of baseball operations Nick Krall signaled to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer this week that his hope is to retool for the 2027 season and give manager Terry Francona a more competitive roster than the 2026 iteration. Wittenmyer writes that the implication seems to be a preference for players who have either already reached the majors (but still have a good bit of club control) or are on the cusp of doing so for the first time.
Cincinnati has a strong young core in place. Right-hander Chase Burns just signed a seven-year, $105MM contract extension that’ll keep him at the front of the rotation for nearly a decade. He’ll be joined there by another former No. 2 overall pick, Hunter Greene, who’s signed through 2028 with a club option for 2029. Twenty-seven-year-old Andrew Abbott gives them a solid third starter who’s also under club control through ’29. Star shortstop Elly De La Cruz is also under control through ’29. Rookie slugger Sal Stewart can be controlled through 2031.
Krall, general manager Brad Meador and the rest of the Cincinnati front office have plenty of rentals to peddle to other clubs, though some (e.g. Eugenio Suarez, Pierce Johnson) are having rough seasons. Nathaniel Lowe started strong but has cooled off considerably since early June, though he’s still sitting on a quality .244/.326/.474 batting line overall (113 wRC+).
On the other side of the coin, right-hander Brady Singer and catcher Tyler Stephenson got out to miserable starts but have flipped the script recently. Singer, who’s being paid $12.75MM this season, has a 2.92 ERA, 24.1% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate in 52 1/3 innings dating back to June 1. Stephenson, earning a $6.8MM salary, is batting .309/.370/.496 (134 wRC+) with five homers and eight doubles over his past 135 trips to the plate. He’s up to .244/.320/.393 on the season (92 wRC+). Both have strong track records prior to the 2026 season. Rotation help is always in demand, and there’s a particularly large swath of teams seeking catching upgrades this year (e.g. Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, White Sox). In the bullpen, lefties Brock Burke and Caleb Ferguson seem like sure bets to go. Fellow southpaw Sam Moll could join them.
As was the case in the offseason, Krall declined to rule out trades of more controllable players. He was asked specifically about Greene and jack-of-all-trades Spencer Steer but noted only that it’d be extremely difficult to move either player. That’s not a firm rebuke of the concept, but Krall took a similar stance early last offseason. That led to heaps of speculation about the possibility of an offseason trade of Greene, but it ultimately did not seem to be strongly considered.
“Spencer’s been a really good player for us. He’s a great clubhouse guy, a good teammate, and it’d be hard to move him,” Krall said of Steer. He added that if someone were to make a compelling offer on Greene, “we have to have a conversation about it,” but again emphasized that such deals would need to benefit the club in the short- and long-term. A trade involving either player may be a long shot, but it’s worth digging into the contractual status of each.
Steer, 28, is playing on a $4.5MM salary this season. He’s due two more raises in arbitration before reaching free agency after the 2028 season. He’s sitting on a roughly league-average .242/.321/.427 batting line (101 wRC+) but has absolutely hammered left-handed pitching both in 2026 and throughout his career. The righty-swinging utility man has slashed .342/.442/.620 against southpaws this season and sports a lifetime .270/.358/.481 line (128 wRC+) when holding the platoon advantage. Steer can nominally play all four corner positions and second base, but he grades below-average everywhere other than first base, where metrics like Defensive Runs Saved (11) and Outs Above Average (7) feel he’s been terrific in 1275 innings over the past two seasons.
Greene, 27 in a couple weeks, is one of the most talented starters in baseball but has spent far too much time on the injured list in recent years. He underwent surgery to remove a loose body from his elbow in spring training and only returned earlier this month. The Orioles trounced him for eight runs in his first start of the season, but he’s bounced back with three runs over 13 innings with a 19-to-1 K/BB ratio in his next two starts (against the Cubs in Cincinnati and the Rockies at Coors Field). He’s sitting on a 6.06 ERA because of that awful first start, but Greene has a 2.95 ERA, 29.8% strikeout rate and 8% walk rate in 274 1/3 innings since 2024.
The Reds signed Greene to a six-year, $53MM contract extension back in April 2023. He’s being paid $8MM this season (with about $2.75MM to be paid out as of this writing) and is owed a total of $33MM for 2027-28. That includes a $2MM buyout on a $21MM club option for 2029. All told, he can be controlled through 2029 for a total of $54.75MM (including the remainder of this year’s salary). For a pitcher with this type of talent and power arsenal, that’s a bargain, even if his frequent IL stints have frustrated fans (and, perhaps, to an extent, the front office).
Greene has far greater trade value than Steer. He’s controllable longer, and high-end starting pitching is tougher to find. Steer has played regularly in Cincinnati, but many contenders would probably view him as more of a part-time player, given the lackluster defensive profile and pronounced platoon splits. Both are valuable big leaguers, but Greene should logically be the tougher player with which to part.
That’s not the only pair of tough calls the Reds could face over the next 10 days. Outfielder JJ Bleday has had a strong rebound after signing for $1.4MM following his non-tender with the A’s. He’s controlled two more seasons. The Reds could keep him in the fold, but might they also consider him found money and cash in on the success? They’ll surely receive offers.
Elsewhere on the roster, lefty Nick Lodolo is controlled only through 2027. He’s on the injured list at the moment but only due to a blister issue. He hasn’t had a strong season, however. Similarly, infielder Matt McLain, infielder-turned-outfielder Noelvi Marte and outfielder TJ Friedl have all had down showings but could appeal to other clubs as change-of-scenery candidates. All four once looked to be core players in Cincinnati but have struggled in 2026 at least. McLain has yet to bounce back from 2024 shoulder surgery. Marte, more dubiously, hasn’t been the same since being hit with an 80-game PED suspension. Would the Reds sell low on any of the bunch? The position players — Friedl, in particular — could be non-tender candidates if their struggles continue.
There are plenty of questions for the Reds to address and plenty of names that could change hands in a short period of time. Burns, Stewart and De La Cruz feel all but untouchable. Greene, on paper, shouldn’t be far behind but will surely command robust interest. Change is coming in Cincinnati. The main question at this point — barring a surprising run of six or seven more consecutive wins on top of their current two — is how far the front office is willing to go in its efforts to retool for next year.
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