The Brewers are one of the best clubs in baseball and are clear buyers. Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports that the front office plans to be more aggressive than in recent years. They have already checked in on some big targets, including Tarik Skubal of the Tigers and Mason Miller of the Padres.
Milwaukee has been competitive for most of the past decade. Assuming they make the playoffs here in 2026, that will be a postseason appearance in eight out of the past nine years. They generally don’t make headline-grabbing moves at the deadline. Last year, they acquired complementary pieces like Danny Jansen and Shelby Miller. In 2022, they infamously traded Josh Hader away, despite being in contention. That led to their only postseason miss since 2017, though it worked out in the long run as it indirectly led to the club landing William Contreras.
As McCalvy points out, the team doesn’t usually spend big on free agents. Their success is contingent on them producing big leaguers from their farm system. While some fans may encourage clubs to trade all prospects since so many of them don’t pan out, a smaller market club like the Brewers relies on a steady supply of younger and cheaper talent. For a club like that to make a splashy trade, it would be a big deal.
There are reasons why now might be a time to break that pattern. Despite the club’s recent success in the regular season, they have often looked outmatched in the playoffs once facing teams from bigger markets on the coasts. They may need to be bold to break through in October. They recently lost Brandon Woodruff to season-ending shoulder surgery, blowing a big hole in their rotation, particularly for the postseason.
They are also well positioned to put pieces on the table. Baseball America recently ranked their farm system the best in the majors, highlighted by players like Jesús Made, Luis Peña, Cooper Pratt, Luis Lara, Logan Henderson, Josh Adamczewski, Braylon Payne, Jett Williams and Alexander Frias.
The Brewers won’t have playing time for everyone in that group, particularly the position players. Pratt is already in the majors and playing shortstop. He is signed through 2033 with a pair of club options after that. Second baseman Brice Turang and third baseman Joey Ortiz are controlled through 2029. Peña, Made and Williams are also infielders and will be pushing into that group eventually.
Williams can also play the outfield but there is crowding there as well. Jackson Chourio is signed through 2031 with two club options after that. Lara is signed through 2032 with three club options. Garrett Mitchell is under club control through 2028. Christian Yelich is signed through 2028 with a 2029 club option. Adamczewski, Payne and Frias are all outfielders who will be banging on the door soon.
Given that enviable depth, perhaps the Brewers feel they could make some notable subtractions while still being in good shape in their position player group. If they were willing to put down some chips, it would evoke the club’s 2008 acquisition of C.C. Sabathia. That club was felled in the NLDS but Sabathia was so dominant that most fans think of that season fondly. He put up a 1.65 ERA in 17 starts for Milwaukee after the trade.
Getting Skubal would be a move with some echoes of the Sabathia deal. Sabathia was the reigning American League Cy Young winner and an impending free agent at the time he was acquired by Milwaukee. The same is true of Skubal, who has actually won the past two A.L. Cy Youngs. With Woodruff out for the year, Skubal and Jacob Misiorowski could form a deadly one-two punch at the front of the rotation.
What’s not known right now is if the Tigers will move Skubal. They are in a very tricky spot. Their 48-54 record isn’t good but they are only 4.5 games back of a playoff spot. They would have to leapfrog five times to get into playoff position.
They could lean hard into selling, which would involve trading Skubal as well as other impending free agents like Casey Mize, Gleyber Torres and others, landing a mountain of prospects. They could hold everyone and try to make a World Series run. After the season, they could make Skubal a qualifying offer, recouping draft pick compensation. Even that path is complicated by the club being marginally into competitive balance tax territory, something MLBTR recently explored.
If the Tigers decide to part with Skubal, he won’t be cheap. Players of this skill level are almost never traded. Made is considered by many to be the top prospect in the league and such a player would normally be untouchable, but Detroit would probably try to start the conversation there. Perhaps the Brewers have enough strong prospects to win the bidding without Made, but it will take a substantial package regardless.
That doesn’t even mention the financial aspect. Skubal is making $32MM this year, which will still leave almost $10MM to be paid out as the deadline rolls around. MLBTR’s Payroll Tracker has the Brewers at $136MM in spending right now. They’ve never finished a season that high, per the historical data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Milwaukee could look to have Detroit absorb some of that money but that would only increase the request when it comes to prospect capital.
Other clubs will perhaps have an easier time with the financial aspects but the Brewers are one of the clubs best positioned to give up the necessary prospects. Another wrinkle to consider is the “thread the needle” approach. It was reported this week that the Tigers could consider trading Skubal for another big league pitcher, who is not as good but is cheaper and controllable, in addition to other pieces. The idea would be that Detroit could greatly help themselves in the long term without totally punting 2026.
The Brewers have a number of pitchers who could perhaps fit this bill. They wouldn’t trade Misiorowski, as the whole point of getting Skubal would be for those two to anchor the rotation for the postseason push. The same is probably true of Kyle Harrison, though he would surely interest the Tigers with his four remaining seasons of club control. Robert Gasser also has four more seasons of club control after this one. Henderson, Shane Drohan and Brandon Sproat are controlled for another five seasons each.
Miller would be a huge boost to the club’s bullpen. He has an unbelievable 0.86 ERA and 48.8% strikeout rate this season. Unlike Skubal, he is not a rental. He is actually controlled for three whole seasons after this one. Milwaukee already has a great closer in Trevor Megill but could easily bump him down to a setup role while moving everyone else in the bullpen down a peg.
Though Miller is only a reliever, his elite performance and affordable control give him huge trade value. The Padres gave up Leo De Vries, and others, to get him last year. De Vries was, and still is, considered a top five prospect in the sport. His value is similar to where Made’s is now, though Made likely has a slight edge.
The Padres are more willing than any other club to trade prospects of that caliber. They are probably aware they can’t get someone in the Made/De Vries tier if they trade Miller this summer. Regardless, reporting from this week suggested the Friars would look for multiple Top 100 guys.
Like with the Tigers and Skubal, a trade isn’t even guaranteed. The Padres are only 3.5 games back of a playoff spot. And even if this year is a whiff, they control Miller for three more. But they have been up against their payroll limit for years, which has led to their aforementioned aggressiveness in trading prospects. Baseball America now considers their farm to be the worst in the league. Perhaps they would make Miller available in order to restock that barren farm. With the Brewers having arguably the best farm in the league, perhaps there’s alignment to be had.
Time will tell if the Brewers can get something done with these two. For now, it’s notable that they are setting their sights on the top names available. Even if it’s not one of these two, maybe they will be able to pivot to guys like Reid Detmers, Joe Ryan, Jeff Hoffman, Kevin Gausman, Trevor Rogers or other potentially impactful arms. McCalvy mentions that Made, Peña, Adamczewski, Sproat, Drohan, Henderson and Andrew Fischer are all generating interest from other clubs. The Brewers will have to shop around and decide which prices are worth paying before the August 3 deadline.
Photo courtesy of Lon Horwedel, Imagn Images
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