We were one “Alex Bregman non-swing” away from seeing the Cubs off to a 3-1 start to the second half of the season (which somehow still would have dropped the Cubs down a game in the NL Central race …), but things aren’t all that bad. The Cubs have won three series in a row and still have a nice lead in the Wild Card race (with a critical tie-breaker over the second-place Phillies).
Here’s a look at those standings as of today:
If this is how the rest of the season played out, the Cubs would host a three-game Wild Card series at Wrigley Field, just like they did last year, when they ultimately took their season to Game 5 of the NLDS. Is that an ideal outcome? No, obviously the ideal is to skip the first round entirely, resting your pitchers, weakening your opponent, and avoiding the risks of a tricky three-game set. But that might be the fate we’re resigned to at the moment.
The bigger takeaway, however, is not about their playoff odds or chances to advance, but rather what they do at the deadline, which is coming up in less than two weeks. And unfortunately to that end, the Cubs’ start to the second half — and, perhaps more importantly, some of the circumstances around the rest of the league — are not pointing towards a particularly lavish trade deadline.
First, let’s focus on the Cubs, whose president, Jed Hoyer, explained this exact dynamic just a few days ago (via MLB.com): “You have to go into the Deadline thinking about it analytically,” Hoyer said. “You have to think about, ‘OK, getting a bye is effectively winning a series and weakening your opponent in the next series.’ That’s a really big deal. If the odds say that you can do that, that’s a different equation than if not. You have to be aware of those things, and we certainly will.”
While the Cubs overall playoff odds have ballooned (79.6% via FanGraphs, 93.4% via PECOTA), their chances of overtaking the Milwaukee Brewers, who now have the best record in baseball, in the NL Central have taken a nosedive:
FanGraphs: 9.1% PECOTA: 17.6%Of course, it is still possible, perhaps especially with the injuries to Kyle Harrison and Brandon Woodruff. But we are so many YEARS beyond counting on the Brewers to falter that it doesn’t even register as remotely likely to me anymore.
But again, more to the point, those odds are likely beneath Jed Hoyer’s threshold for “getting a bye is possible,” which means, even at an internal level, a “big deadline” isn’t particularly likely.
But what about external factors? Surely, the Cubs will still buy at the deadline. I’m quite certain of it. Unfortunately, a couple of teams to whom they’ve been connected most are going in the wrong direction.
For example …
The Boston Red Sox have won an astounding 14(!) games in a row, completely turning their season on its head. On July 1, their playoff odds sat at 13.8%. Today, they’re back at 63.4%. So those dreams of acquiring Aroldis Chapman for the bullpen or Sonny Gray for the rotation may be completely out the window. Plus, Connelly Early is hurt now, which makes even a big-leaguer-for-big-leaguer deal a little less likely. The New York Mets are talking about extending one of the most interesting/attractive potential Cubs trade targets, Clay Holmes, and apparently the feeling is mutual: “Definitely open” to that, Holmes said about an extension right now with the Mets. “I came here for a reason. You almost have the sense of some type of unfinished business. You want to make things right and do things well here because when you do win here, it’s very exciting. I’ve seen that. It’s something that I hope to be a part of. I don’t know what that looks like. But that desire is still there.” The Los Angeles Angels have Reid Detmers and Jose Soriano to deal, but will team owner Arte Moreno actually allow his interim GM, John Mozeliak, to deal a controllable starter like that when he’s probably not the guy leading this franchise beyond this season? (Remember, they fired GM Perry Minasian just a few weeks ago). The Houston Astros, until a recent skid, looked like they were fighting back in the AL Wild Card race, potentially with Josh Hader to deal as a big prize at the deadline. Now? It’s not so clear, and Jeff Passan gives Hader just a 30% chance of being dealt by August 3. The Miami Marlins still have a foot in the Wild Card door (tied for one of the final spots), which makes a deal for Sandy Alcantara, a controllable arm in whom the Cubs have shown interest in the past. The Seattle Mariners, who have a persistent desire to trade pitching for hitting but apparently no willingness to actually get it done, are leading their division at the moment.And then there’s just the general mess of the American League divisions and both Wild Card races.
In the American League, all three divisions’ top-two teams are separated by 1.5 games or fewer (which is just effectively a tie at this point in the season. Likewise, both the NL *and* the AL have eight teams within 4.5 games of a Wild Card slot. The NL actually has all eight within 2.5 games!
That is necessarily going to shrink the volume of sellers AND increase the cost of buying, perhaps even resulting in only the true buyers being the most obvious contenders. Whether or not the Cubs fall into that bucket, I suppose, is up to Jed Hoyer’s discretion. But I can tell you that it’d be a whole lot easier to project buying if there weren’t so many teams still in the race this close to the deadline.
And finally, there’s just the reality of a few key pieces not performing all that well: Freddy Peralta (5.01 ERA), MacKenzie Gore (4.80 ERA), Kevin Gausman (4.21 ERA), etc.
Oh, and one more thing: with all of the players the Cubs have picked up over the season (to help backfill the absurd number of injuries), their CBT payroll for this season has ballooned to $250.4M (FanGraphs). That’s already over the first tier of the luxury tax threshold, but is quickly approaching the second tier ($264M), where penalties are sharper (and also not purely financial).
***
Now, with all that said, a few caveats:
I still do expect the Cubs to be buyers at the deadline. They simply will not sit out entirely. And despite his reputation, Jed Hoyer is actually one of the more active “trading” executives in baseball, particularly at the deadline. That doesn’t always mean he goes big, but also … he has had a lot of big trades during and after the season throughout his tenure as Cubs President. That’s just true. There are always relievers available. Lots of them. I think the Cubs’ efforts to land a good relief pitcher or two are probably mostly unchanged. Perhaps not the Aroldis Chapman (Red Sox maybe not selling) or Josh Hader (expensive to acquire… and to pay thereafter) level. But they’ll get someone. I still believe that the Cubs should be among the very most aggressive buyers in the controllable market, assuming any of those guys are actually dealt. Last year, that market priced itself out of anyone being traded, but with the lockout looming, maybe teams are a little more willing to turn 1.5-year assets into longer-term pieces.But the bottom line here is clear: After the All-Star break, the Cubs have not won enough, the Brewers have won too much, and the circumstances around some of the previously obvious sellers are moving in the wrong direction. That has the makings of a less-than-lavish trade deadline for Jed Hoyer and the Chicago Cubs.
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