From last to first and first to last, the NFL is a league in which teams will make big moves from year to year. To get ahead of the uncertainty, the Opta supercomputer has simulated the 2026 NFL season to determine projected records, playoff percentages and Super Bowl favorites.
At the start of the 2025 NFL season, there were 10 teams with 20-1 or shorter odds to win the Super Bowl.
They were, starting with the shortest odds, the Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, Kansas City Chiefs, Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, Washington Commanders, San Francisco 49ers, Cincinnati Bengals and Los Angeles Rams. Of those 10, half missed the playoffs entirely and only one made it to a conference championship game (Rams).
Maybe 2025 was just a weird season. But maybe the league is in a larger state of flux than most realize.
An early look at our 2026 NFL season simulation seems to support the latter. While we have one overwhelming favorite, some of the bigger-name teams of the past half decade have rosters littered with questions.
To provide an outlook, the Opta supercomputer runs thousands of simulations and determines each team’s projected record and chances to make the playoffs, win its division and reach the Super Bowl.
Each club earns a “team score,” which is derived from player ratings, roster depth charts and coaching changes. Our supercomputer also analyzes home-field advantage for each team based on its scoring output at home versus the road compared to other teams.
From there, teams are evaluated head-to-head to determine likely wins and losses. The simulations include projected ties, so it’s important to note expected win-loss records may not add up to exactly 17 games for all teams. Plus, the projections include many potential outcomes, including best- and worst-case scenarios.
Last preseason, the season sim highlighted the 49ers, Bengals, Chicago Bears, Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts as teams to miss the 2024 playoffs that we expected to make the 2025 playoffs. Three of five – Bears, 49ers and Jaguars – isn’t bad, especially considering the other two were contenders until they lost their No. 1 quarterback for an extended period of the season.
This year, the supercomputer probabilities through mid-July foresee the Colts, Bengals, Lions and Dallas Cowboys making the playoffs after missing them last season. We’ll discuss one of those teams below, as well as some of the surprising results of our initial season simulation.
But before we talk about some of the teams with questions, both good and bad, let’s talk about the team that has almost no questions at all going into the 2026 NFL season.
2026 NFL Season Predictions in NFC
Los Angeles Rams
Rating: 18.1 (No. 1 of 32) xWins (expected wins): 11.7 Make Playoffs: 89.5% Win Division: 65.5% Super Bowl Champ: 19.9%The Rams finished the 2025 season with our third-highest team rating. They were No. 1 in offensive rating (thank you, offensive line) and No. 8 in defensive rating. The defense was hardly a weakness, but the Rams spent big this offseason to acquire cornerback Trent McDuffie and defensive end Myles Garrett from the Chiefs and Cleveland Browns, respectively. Occasionally these big swings for well-known players can be more eye candy than anything else, but in this case, Opta’s data is wholeheartedly backing the acquisitions.
McDuffie ranks third among NFL corners in coverage rating at 92.8, while also putting up respectable run defense numbers. Garrett is the best edge rusher in the league with a pass rush rating of 99.0 – a clear tier above the second group of Micah Parsons (Packers), Aidan Hutchinson (Detroit Lions) and Will Anderson Jr. (Texans).
If there’s a knock against the Rams’ season outlook, it’s their division. Three of the top six teams in Opta’s team ratings reside in the NFC West.
Seattle Seahawks
Rating: 13.6 (No. 2) xWins: 9.5 Make Playoffs: 58.0% Win Division: 20.4% Super Bowl Champ: 5.3%Speaking of one of those other NFC West teams, the Super Bowl champion Seahawks have a tough journey ahead to be a repeat champion. Cornerback Riq Woolen left for the Philadelphia Eagles, creating a massive loss for the Seahawks defense. Yes, he did come off the field in base defense looks last season, due entirely to his extreme ineffectiveness as a run defender. His 58.1 run defense rating was worst in the league among corners. But his coverage skills as a true outside corner were second to none by the end of the season. How the champs fill that hole will be one of the most intriguing storylines of the early 2026 NFL season.
It might seem like we’re hinting that with Woolen gone the Seahawks have tumbled in our projections with only a 53.8% chance to make the playoffs. In reality, they enter the season as our No. 2 team in the team ratings. Sam Darnold was a nearly unbelievable addition last season, leading the league in throw accuracy over expected with a mark of +9.4%. He still puts the ball in harm’s way more than most would like, but his expected interception rate was around league average, down significantly from his early career nightmare numbers.
It’s an incredibly tough division (the 49ers gave it a third 12+ win team last season) and the Seahawks have a first-place schedule on top of that.
Detroit Lions
Rating: 13.1 (No. 5) xWins: 10.0 Make Playoffs: 69.1% Win Division: 41.5% Super Bowl Champ: 5.2%In contrast to the Seahawk, the Lions don’t have to play a first-place schedule (or second- or third-, for that matter). They finished last season with a decent 9-8 record, and their reward is matchups against the Giants, New Orleans Saints and Arizona Cardinals.
The Lions have to fill some holes, particularly in the secondary, but their offense should be as high-powered as any this season. Amon-Ra St. Brown is a household name at this point, but Jameson Williams emerged as one of the top outside receivers in the league in 2025 with a route rating of 90.0.
Among teams that missed the 2025 NFL playoffs, the Lions are our No. 1 threat to reverse that scenario. They have never reached the Super Bowl, however.
New York Giants
Rating: 5.7 (No. 31) xWins: 6.0 Make Playoffs: 9.6% Win Division: 5.4% Super Bowl Champ: 0.2%The Giants have had a mix of good and bad vibes this offseason. New coach John Harbaugh comes in with a proven track record of success, but the Giants are not built with the same level of talent the Ravens had during the last decade.
The Giants’ pass rush is still OK and there’s a chance linebacker Abdul Carter takes a step in his second season, but the trade of the Dexter Lawrence to the Bengals created a massive blow to the interior of the line. Only Jeffery Simmons (Tennessee Titans, 93.9) and Chris Jones (Chiefs, 91.7) topped Lawrence’s 91.2 pass rush rating as an interior rusher. Sure, most of the pressure comes from the edge, but Lawrence could take over a game by collapsing the pocket in an instant.
The rest of the roster just doesn’t have enough talent. Their non-QB team rating is the second worst in the league, and our QB ratings give them a bottom-five option at that position as well. The Eagles and Cowboys remain talented and strong, and, oh yeah, the NFC East crossover division opponent in the 2026 NFL season is the NFC West, so Harbaugh could be in for a tough debut.
2026 NFL Season Predictions in AFC
New England Patriots
Rating: 13.4 (No. 3) xWins 9.9 Make Playoffs: 75.3% Win Division: 55.5% Super Bowl Champ: 7.5%Drake Maye’s second season was exactly what the Patriots had in mind when they drafted him. The QB’s +7.6% accuracy over expected was third in the league, his expected interception rate was 4.21%, which is better than league average, and he consistently made plays with his legs when needed. They went 14-3 after being 4-13 in each of the two prior seasons, but they fell shy of another Super Bowl win – losing 29-13 to the Seahawks, but basically not even that close – despite the turnaround.
This offseason has been all about surrounding Maye with the talent that’s necessary to take the final step. At the end of the 2025 season, the Patriots had the 17th-best non-QB roster in the Opta ratings. This season, they’re starting with the seventh best following the additions of wide receivers A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs and offensive guard Alijah Vera-Tucker.
Houston Texans
Rating: 12.4 (No. 8) xWins: 9.7 Make Playoffs: 71.1% Win Division: 38.7% Super Bowl Champ: 6.5%The no-question part of the Texans is their defense. It’s dropped from No. 1 to 2 in our ratings, but that’s because the Rams acquired two of the best players in the league, not because the Texans lost anything of note. Overall, the team is about as talented as it was at the end of the 2025 season.
The big question with the Texans this season is going to be fourth-year quarterback C.J. Stroud, who was below average by EVE (efficiency vs. expected) and expected interception rate and just about average in throw accuracy over expected. His supporting cast on offense has improved from 20th in the league to 13th, but after Stroud’s playoff performances, it might only matter if he plays well.
The team is good, and if Stroud plays at the level of even the 10th-best QB in the league this season, the Texans should be heading back to the playoffs.
Buffalo Bills
Rating: 10.1 (No. 18) xWins: 8.4 Make Playoffs: 48.0% Win Division: 23.7% Super Bowl Champ: 2.2%Baltimore Ravens
Rating: 9.0 (No. 23) xWins: 7.8 Make Playoffs: 32.5% Win Division: 18.4% Super Bowl Champ: 1.1%Kansas City Chiefs
Rating: 9.0 (No. 24) xWins: 8.0 Make Playoffs: 38.5% Win Division: 23.7% Super Bowl Champ: 1.6%We’re grouping these three teams together because they were the three preseason favorites to come out of the AFC last year. The Chiefs and Ravens missed the playoffs entirely and the Bills had such a frustrating playoff exit that they fired their coach. Our model puts the chance at all three missing the 2026 playoffs at 25%.
Why so low? Glad, you asked.
This year, we’re introducing something into our model on QB Variance. QBs have always had value in our models, but rather than looking only at each signal-caller’s average value, we can build in a variable that describes their volatility. Josh Allen (Bills) and Lamar Jackson (Ravens) are two of the five most-volatile QBs in the league. That’s a good skill to have when a signal-caller needs to make up for the talent on the rest of the team.
For Allen, it’s the Bills defense that could be tremendously frustrating in 2026. Heading into the season, we rank the AFC East squad with the 27th-most talented defense in the league. That’s not great, of course, and it could lead to some highly entertaining games. Allen will have to stay on the positive side of his volatility a lot more than he had to last year if this season is to go right for the Bills.
For the Ravens, the issues could be with Jackson. Injuries have been a huge problem for the two-time NFL MVP in recent years, and last season his pass accuracy over expected dropped into the negatives. Combine that with a supporting cast filled with players who are good at one thing and bad at another: as examples, Zay Flowers is an excellent route runner (route rating of 86.2) but a terrible run blocker (56.6), while Ronnie Stanley is a force in the run game (run block rating of 92.0) but his pass block rating of 81.0 is among the worst for starting left tackles. Cap that off with massive changes on the interior of the offensive line and the Ravens are a team with more questions than answers right now.
The Chiefs are simply seeing the effect of picking late, even last, in the NFL Draft for quite a while, an aging core of players, and consistently missing on finding playmakers and quality pass protection. Heading into the 2026 NFL season, we have the Chiefs’ offensive supporting cast ranked 30th in the league. Patrick Mahomes is still great, though not quite the overwhelming top-tier QB he was a few years ago, but he’s also coming off a serious injury. If the supporting cast was good, it would be easier for him to slide gently back into the lineup. Maybe running back Kenneth Walker III can give them the boost in run play explosiveness they lacked with Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt, but it will take some serious improvements across other areas of the roster before we’re looking at a top-five Chiefs’ team again.
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