Burnham vs Farage is set to be the great personal battle of the next three years of British politics.
Both are formidable charismatic communicators, among the few political figures to generate a genuine response from ordinary folk on the street. Both are men “of the people”, yet with privilege in their backgrounds – Farage at Dulwich College, Burnham at Cambridge.
What’s been remarkable in the five and half weeks since Burnham won the Makerfield by-election so convincingly is how little effect Burnham’s dead-certain ascent to the premiership has had on the polls. There’s been almost no Burnham bounce. In the 27 polls since Makerfield, the Labour vote has risen by only two percentage points. Farage and his party have still been ahead in all but two of those polls, albeit by much narrower margins than earlier this year.
Reform surely can’t believe their luck. Amidst all the hullaballoo about Burnham, the generous media coverage and the lack of scrutiny, Labour still hasn’t managed a single lead over Reform. And that’s especially surprising given all the negative stories about Reform, about Farage’s convicted criminal adviser George Cottrell, the allegations (which he has denied) of Farage breaking the donation rules and claims that Reform broke election laws (again, which the party has denied).
Indeed, no party has been ahead of Reform in more than 300 polls conducted since April last year (other than one unweighted poll in March this year). It’s clear that Reform has a solid quarter of the electorate willing to vote for them come what may, and who believe Farage’s incessant refrain that he and his party are victims of an establishment plot. More importantly, the polls suggests most voters are sceptical about whether Burnham can really make a difference, and really turn round the economy, boost their standard of living, and tackle other major issues such as welfare, the NHS and immigration. And do so soon.
Burnham is a politician of extraordinary resilience, determination and stamina. This was his third attempt at the Labour leadership, after poor showings in the contests of 2010 and 2015. After last year’s Labour conference, when Burnham made his leadership ambitions too obvious with an interview in the New Statesman, many pundits said the mayor of Greater Manchester was finished as a possible challenger to Starmer. Things looked even worse when Labour’s NEC blocked Burnham from even being a candidate for the Gorton and Denton by-election.
Yet, Farage has an even more formidable record of bouncing back. It took him eight attempts over 30 years before he finally became an MP for Clacton at the 2024 election. Both men are street fighters, and in face-to-face combat I’d put my money on Farage, the more likely of the two to fight dirty.
Many of the policies which Burnham is offering will take years to bear fruit – including his ambitious plans for devolution; his goal of building more council houses than at any time since the war, better transport, and the radical overhaul of social care. Much of his programme requires large chunks of money which the Treasury simply doesn’t have.
In the meantime, the British economy will stutter and struggle with sluggish growth which will make little appreciable difference to people’s living standards, especially amid the inflationary effects of high oil prices and likely extra taxes.
Overseas, Nigel Farage may personally have seen less of Donald Trump in recent months, but he and his party are still close to Trump’s Maga movement in America and Trump’s possible successor JD Vance, who will not have been impressed by Burnham making it clear he’ll be much tougher on Israel than Starmer was. And while Starmer enjoyed excellent relations with French President Emmanuel Macron, Burnham faces the prospect of deal with a far-right Marine Le Pen as French president from next spring, if the French polls are to be believed.
Trump and Le Pen will not worry about embarrassing Burnham, and making life politically easier for Farage in any way they can.
It’s so much easier to be an opposition politician than in government, especially in the modern world where so many of the levers of power no longer seem to work, where ministerial decisions can be held up or overturned by the legal system, and party backbenchers are far more willing to step out of line (especially if you reduce the power of the government whips, as Burnham promises).
Rejuvenated by his likely victory in Clacton and perhaps after a longer break this summer to recharge his batteries, Farage will return to face Burnham this autumn as a seasoned and highly skilled opposition operator, an expert insurgent.
Both Burnham and Farage have an instinctive feel for public opinion, an understanding of how voters are likely to respond, but Farage is the more skilled in sensing how people think. Farage will immediately spot the weaknesses in everything Burnham does, and exploit the broken promises and the inevitable scandals. And with the help of Reform’s strong social media operation, its overflowing war chest and GB News, where Farage has his own show, he will go for the weak spots every time Burnham falters, knowing exactly where to aim his blows. It will be so easy for Farage to exploit voters’ inevitable disillusionment and frustration with Burnham, and argue that once again an establishment party has let them down.
But, Farage needs to make two simple adjustments if he really wants to really terrify Burnham and Labour, and build on his core 25 per cent of public opinion. First, he must abandon the shouty, tetchy, persona he’s exhibited since the Harborne scandal broke 10 weeks ago, and return to the friendly, relaxed Farage of old who was always willing to poke fun at himself. Second, he must follow the advice of Reform adviser Tim Montgomerie (who defected from the Conservatives in 2024), and assemble a stronger team both among Reform’s leading spokesmen and organisers at party HQ.
Kemi Badenoch is a much more effective Conservative leader than she was a year ago, and the new Green leader Zack Polanski threatens to eat away at Labour from the Left, but Nigel Farage – if he can see off Count Binface – poses Andy Burnham’s greatest threat.
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