ROCHESTER, N.Y. – Our Yellow Alert continues for the morning as air quality remains unhealthy for some, but it will improve as the day goes on, eventually settling into the “Moderate” category. We’ll briefly go back to Green at that time, but then we have a Yellow Alert for smoke returning and a thunderstorm threat tomorrow.
Air quality this morning was measured at a 146 on the AQI and falling. Those who are unusually sensitive to poor air quality should exercise caution this morning, but air quality will continue to improve this morning as smoke moves to the southwest, up to a 95 on the AQI. Other than that, today will be partly to mostly sunny with highs around 80 degrees.
Our weekend begins with another Yellow Alert as thunderstorms are expected in both the morning and afternoon for Saturday. A strong low pressure system will track over the St. Lawrence River, bringing an attendant warm and cold front through our area. The warm front may bring scattered thunderstorms for the morning, then the cold front will bring a stronger line of thunderstorms in the afternoon. There is uncertainty in the strength for the scattered morning storms, as warm front thunder is usually a very finnicky setup. As the saying goes in meteorology, “Never trust a warm front”. This is further complicated by the fact that the warm front will be bringing some of the smoke back into our region, and smoke has been known to suppress thunderstorm formation; and yet, if thunderstorms do form, which looks likely at this point, the smoke could act to increase the difference in electrical charge between the ground and clouds, which means lightning could be more frequent and strike the ground more often.
Either way, the afternoon cold front storms will be much more impactful. These are the storms you’ll want to pay the most attention to. They will bring with them heavy rainfall that could cause isolated flooding, strong winds which could cause scattered damage, as well as a 5% chance of a tornado forming. We are still narrowing down the timing, but right now the window for the morning storms is 6-10am, and the timing for the afternoon storms is 1-7pm. Besides the storms, it will be mostly cloudy, warm and humid with highs in the low 80s. You’re going to want to check back in for updates on this as we continue to track the trends on these storms.
The cold front will clear our skies overnight as we return to Green on the Threat Tracker, and skies stay pleasant for Sunday, with abundant sunshine, falling humidity, lighter winds, and highs in the upper 70s. Smoke concerns may return at times next week as the upper level winds will still be going in the same direction as they were for this first round, but that depends on how much of the fire is contained and what mixing mechanisms will be present in the atmosphere. Stay tuned!
First Alert Weather: Yellow Alert today and tomorrow: Air quality improves today, may deteriorate again tomorrow alongside thunderstorms WHEC.com.
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