With a little time this week to digest the preceding weekend’s MLB Draft, various prospecting services are offering up evaluations of the Cubs’ draft (among others), and I thought I’d share some of what they’re saying.
Keep in mind that, in the MLB Draft, a team’s take is constrained by the bonus pool system, and the evaluation of players is particularly difficult when they are years away from (possibly) playing in the big leagues. That limits how much we can credibly say about these prospects, but my sense – both in following the draft and in reading the various takes – is that the Cubs took a whole lot of upside this year, even at the expense of certainty. I tentatively like that approach for a system that has a lot of high-quality position prospects already (so why not take a few really big swings?), and is severely lacking in impact-caliber pitching (so you almost have to take big swings).
Among the takes …
For example here’s some of what Baseball America had to say, the theme for which seems to be (1) what a lot of folks are saying, and (2) exactly what the Cubs were trying to accomplish:“The Theme: Big Power, Big Spin. This was a pitching-heavy class for the Cubs, and most of the arms they took have elite ability to spin the baseball, while the two hitters they took up top—Caden Sorrell and Myles Bailey—come with great power potential.
Favorite Day 2 Pick: RHP Dylan Blomker. Blomker is a 6-foot-4, 210-pound righthander who pitches with an unconventional, upright delivery but has loud pure stuff. His fastball sits in the low 90s and has been up to 96 mph with solid riding life at the top of the zone. His go-to secondary is a low-80s slider that flashes impressive sweeping life and spin rates in the 2,400-2,800 rpm range. The pitch has great potential, but he needs to be more consistent with his arm speed and release. Blomker also throws a firm upper-80s changeup but doesn’t use it much ….
Most Exciting Tool: 1B Myles Bailey’s power. Bailey’s raw power is an 80. It’s some of the most ridiculous juice you’ll see. Please go and watch some of his highlights.”
Separately, Baseball America offered up their “favorite pick” for each organization, and, for the Cubs, it was second round outfielder Caden Sorrell, whom they had more as a late-first-round type:“Sorrell’s tools, athleticism and spring production with Texas A&M could have easily warranted a first-round selection. He ranked No. 27 on the BA 500 and has an above-average power/speed combination with a chance to stick in center field with a plus arm. He hit .316 with 46 home runs in his three college seasons. Yes, he comes with a 23.9% strikeout rate—but at the 62nd pick? I love the risk/reward here.”
Sorrell was also the favorite Cubs pick over at MLB Pipeline:“Cubs: Caden Sorrell, OF (second round)While the Cubs spent 11 of their top 13 choices on some much-needed pitching, they also snared one of the toolsiest college players available in the second round. His power, speed, arm strength and outfield defense all grade as average to plus, though his aggressive left-handed swing can get too long and uphill if he hunts home runs. Both of his grandfathers (Tom Griffin, Billy Sorrell) played in the big leagues.”
Keith Law evaluated most of the Cubs’ picks in the top ten rounds over at The Athletic. A couple of his takes on two of the top starters the Cubs took:“The Cubs took Mississippi right-hander Cade Townsend (1), who showed top-10-pick caliber stuff earlier in the spring before fatigue and a minor shoulder issue took it down a notch. He’s up to 98 with a plus cutter and splitter, hard slider and a power curveball, and good shapes across the board. He throws strikes, but it’s more control than command.
Some teams backed off because he’s slender for a starter — 6-foot-1 without a ton of room to fill out — so of course Mississippi rolled him out for 115 pitches in five innings in the NCAA Regionals. I do think he’s a starter; maybe he’s a five-and-dive type with a lot of strikeouts and limited workloads ….
Nebraska right-hander Carson Jasa (3) is 6-foot-7 and his fastball sits 95-96, but he threw more than 60 percent breaking stuff this spring between his slider/cutter and a 12/6 curveball. He has starter upside atop a wide range of potential outcomes, and needs a better changeup or a splitter to get lefties out.”
Kiley McDaniel’s review of the Cubs’ draft over at ESPN included a number of thoughts. Among the ones that stood out were his takes on Isaac Morton and Myles Bailey:“Best value: RHP Isaac Morton (sixth round) had an elbow injury that required surgery in May, but he had already made 13 starts, so his second-third round look at the time was adjusted down a bit for the medical issue.
He throws a fastball/cutter/sweeper combo mostly from a low slot with above average velocity/movement for all three shapes while the changeup and control are good enough to think there could be a starter in there ….
Sleeper to watch: 1B Myles Bailey (second round) is a pretty easy prospect to understand, even though he missed much of this season because of shoulder surgery: plus-plus raw power, lots of homers, and an uphill swing that helps create a ton of swing and miss. He’s a solid first-base defender and has plus pitch selection, so this could work, but it’ll come with lots of deep counts and true three outcomes.”
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