This week’s Mailbag tries to discern which bubble teams will make a push to contend, what the Mets’ deadline may look like, Andre Pallante‘s potential trade value, Kazuma Okamoto‘s progress in MLB, Braxton Ashcraft‘s dominance and more.
Lloyd asks:
Which bubble teams (at least 3 games back from a playoff spot with at least one team ahead of them) do you think will fall out of contention by the trade deadline, and which of them are best-positioned to make a run?
In the American League, the Rays, White Sox and Mariners hold division leads as of this writing. The Yankees, Guardians and Rangers have the three Wild Card spots. I’m going to call the 36-56 Angels and the 38-54 Royals too far gone to be “bubble” teams. That leaves the Astros, Twins, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Orioles, Tigers and A’s as the American League’s “bubble” teams.
The playoff picture is ever so slightly more solid in the National League. The Dodgers and Brewers have commanding division leads. The Braves have been wilting as the Phillies keep thriving; their once-massive lead is down to three games. That puts the Phils, Cubs and … Marlins! … as the current Wild Card holders. If we can rule out the 38-56 Rockies, the 39-54 Mets, and the 38-54 Giants, we’re left with a six-team bubble of the Cardinals, Pirates, Nationals, D-backs, Padres and Reds.
The most realistic answer to this question is that most of these clubs won’t end up aggressively acting one way or another. One club tends to always wave the white flag and concede in a big way — think the 2025 Twins or 2024 Rays — but most of the clubs within these groups will likely either end up as modest buyers/sellers — perhaps trying to thread the needle of selling short-term pieces while exploring deals to bring in some controllable players who’ll help in a renewed push for contention next season.
Since I love to be wrong, let’s run through each of these bubble teams, look at their remaining schedules/current slates of injuries, and try to glean who’ll end up going which way! Surely we’ll look back on this in one month’s time and marvel at the flawless accuracy, right? Of course we will!
Astros: Houston closes out the first half with three games in Texas. They’ll host the O’s and Marlins coming out of the break before hitting the road to visit the White Sox, Angels and Rangers in their final nine games before the deadline. Last year’s playoff miss was Houston’s first in a decade. They made seven straight ALCS appearances from 2017-23 before falling to the upstart Tigers in the 2024 Wild Card round. It’s a team that’s used to winning and an owner who’s been in win-now mode since the conclusion of their famous multi-year tank/rebuild effort.
Houston’s rotation is being held together by scotch tape, but they just got Hunter Brown back not long ago and have received surprisingly strong output from minor league signee Peter Lambert and rebound right-hander Spencer Arrighetti. Tatsuya Imai has been a flop thus far, as has the recently optioned Mike Burrows. This is a team that needs at least one starter, even with the looming returns of Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski. Their longstanding interest in adding a left-handed bat to the outfield persists.
The Astros are 34-28 since an awful 8-18 April. They withstood what seemed like a backbreaking barrage of injuries and are now less than two games out of a playoff spot. Their general manager is in the final season of his contract. The owner wants to win every year. Yes, the farm is bad, but it’d take a major collapse at this point for the Astros not to operate as at least modest buyers.
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